PythiaFootballBETA
Galatasaray is the clear favourite to win against Antalyaspor, with the model predicting a home win at 81% probability. This is largely due to Antalyaspor's struggles on the road, particularly against stronger opponents, where they average just 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per match.
The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 2-0 in favour of Galatasaray, with a 17.1% probability.
At home, Galatasaray excels, scoring an average of 2.91 goals and conceding just 0.73 per match. Antalyaspor, on the other hand, struggles on the road, conceding more goals than they score.
The model's selections include Home win (81.4%), Over 1.5 (78.3%), and Over 21.5 fouls (75.7%). Galatasaray's home win percentage is 81%, the draw percentage is 15%, and the away win percentage is 4%.
The win extends Galatasaray's recent run, as they bounce back from a defeat, but this time with a convincing 4-2 scoreline. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 81%. The final scoreline was a 4-2 win for Galatasaray, as predicted in the most likely scores, with a 17.1% probability of a 2-0 victory. The model's selections largely came in, with the home win and over 1.5 goals both hitting, while over 21.5 fouls also came to fruition, all with high probabilities of 81.4%, 78.3% and 75.7% respectively.
Galatasaray| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.03 | 1.20 | 2.47 | 0.80 | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (8) | 1.62 | 1.38 | 2.50 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 2.29 | 1.10 | 2.45 | 0.82 | 2.10 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Antalyaspor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.80 | 0.47 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.11 | 2.33 | 1.14 | 2.43 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.71 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 0.38 | 1.31 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
| Antalyaspor goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13% | 6.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 17% | 7.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 14% | 5.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 8.4% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
GalatasarayAntalyasporGalatasaray| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 24.1 | 23.7 | 24.5 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 8.0 | - | 8.0 | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | 18.0 | - | 18.0 |
| vs Similar (14) | 10.1 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 26.0 | 24.8 | 27.7 |
| vs Weaker (35) | 8.6 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 23.4 | 23.2 | 23.7 |
| % over line | 50% | 71% | 27% | 52% | 54% | 50% | 74% | 71% | 77% |
| % under line | 50% | 29% | 73% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 26% | 29% | 23% |
Antalyaspor| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 26.9 | 29.4 | 24.4 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 9.8 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 25.6 | 26.2 | 24.9 |
| vs Similar (34) | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 27.5 | 31.1 | 24.1 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 57% | 59% | 55% | 54% | 56% | 52% | 86% | 95% | 77% |
| % under line | 43% | 41% | 45% | 46% | 44% | 48% | 14% | 5% | 23% |
Galatasaray| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.37 | 1.13 | 0.27 | 0.80 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (8) | 0.62 | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 1.14 | 0.19 | 1.18 | 0.09 | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+44pp vs league) | |||||
Antalyaspor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.33 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.20 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.24 | 0.71 | 0.38 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
Galatasaray| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.83 | 1.33 | 0.53 | 0.80 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (8) | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 1.14 | 0.90 | 1.27 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Antalyaspor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 1.33 | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.56 | 1.33 | 0.57 | 1.57 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.88 | 1.12 | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 90.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 86.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home win | 81.4% | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | - | +1.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 80.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 78.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 71.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/25 | A | 1-4 | |
| 14/03/25 | H | 4-0 | |
| 19/10/24 | A | 0-3 | |
| 26/02/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 07/10/23 | A | 0-2 | |
| 21/01/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 07/08/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 20/05/22 | A | 1-1 |
Galatasaray| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/03/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 10/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
Antalyaspor| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 18/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 05/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Galatasaray | 34 | 77 | 71% | 2.3 | 77 | 30 | +47 | 3.1 | 85% | 68% | 41% | 8.9 | 44% | 4.6 | 56% | 23.7 | 71% | 260 | 151 | 43 | 66 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 62% |
| 2 |  Fenerbahçe | 34 | 74 | 62% | 2.2 | 77 | 37 | +40 | 3.4 | 88% | 65% | 53% | 11.1 | 62% | 6.2 | 82% | 26.4 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 59% |
| 3 |  Trabzonspor | 34 | 69 | 59% | 2.0 | 61 | 39 | +22 | 2.9 | 79% | 56% | 26% | 9.8 | 47% | 4.4 | 53% | 26.1 | 76% | 116 | 48 | 23 | 45 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 34 | 60 | 50% | 1.8 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 2.9 | 82% | 59% | 35% | 10.1 | 50% | 5.4 | 76% | 25.6 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 5 |  Başakşehir | 34 | 57 | 47% | 1.7 | 58 | 35 | +23 | 2.7 | 82% | 62% | 24% | 10.0 | 50% | 4.8 | 73% | 26.5 | 88% | 75 | 36 | 13 | 26 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 6 |  Göztepe | 34 | 55 | 41% | 1.6 | 42 | 32 | +10 | 2.2 | 71% | 41% | 18% | 9.4 | 47% | 5.4 | 68% | 27.6 | 94% | 80 | 42 | 24 | 15 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 38% |
| 7 |  Samsunspor | 34 | 51 | 38% | 1.5 | 46 | 45 | +1 | 2.7 | 76% | 56% | 32% | 10.0 | 50% | 4.5 | 61% | 27.1 | 91% | 56 | 30 | 8 | 19 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 8 |  Rizespor | 34 | 41 | 29% | 1.2 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 2.9 | 76% | 59% | 35% | 8.8 | 47% | 4.5 | 61% | 26.9 | 85% | 49 | 18 | 10 | 21 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 9 |  Konyaspor | 34 | 40 | 29% | 1.2 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 2.7 | 91% | 56% | 24% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.9 | 68% | 25.1 | 79% | 37 | 15 | 8 | 14 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 10 |  Alanyaspor | 34 | 37 | 21% | 1.1 | 41 | 41 | +0 | 2.4 | 74% | 47% | 29% | 8.4 | 35% | 4.8 | 64% | 27.2 | 82% | 42 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 11 |  Kocaelispor | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 1.9 | 56% | 26% | 12% | 8.1 | 29% | 4.9 | 62% | 28.7 | 94% | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 12 |  Gaziantep FK | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 3.0 | 91% | 68% | 26% | 10.2 | 50% | 5.9 | 85% | 29.7 | 94% | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 50% |
| 13 |  Kasımpaşa | 34 | 35 | 24% | 1.0 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 2.4 | 71% | 44% | 21% | 8.7 | 32% | 5.3 | 71% | 28.8 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 14 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 34 | 34 | 26% | 1.0 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 2.4 | 65% | 53% | 21% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.7 | 58% | 26.9 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 43% |
| 15 |  Eyüpspor | 34 | 33 | 24% | 1.0 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 2.4 | 68% | 47% | 18% | 9.3 | 38% | 4.8 | 69% | 27.1 | 79% | 36 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 16 | Antalyaspor | 34 | 32 | 24% | 0.9 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 2.6 | 65% | 50% | 29% | 9.8 | 59% | 5.6 | 70% | 27.3 | 88% | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 17 |  Fatih Karagümrük | 34 | 30 | 24% | 0.9 | 31 | 54 | -23 | 2.5 | 76% | 47% | 18% | 8.9 | 41% | 4.0 | 62% | 28.1 | 94% | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 18 |  Kayserispor | 34 | 30 | 18% | 0.9 | 27 | 62 | -35 | 2.6 | 79% | 50% | 32% | 9.7 | 59% | 4.4 | 70% | 26.0 | 82% | 27 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 47% |