Ararat-Armenia is the clear favourite, with the model rating their away win at 68%. The team’s away form against weaker opponents shows an average of 1.88 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded, while Gandzasar’s home record against stronger sides is poor, averaging 0.2 goals scored and 3.2 conceded. This disparity explains the high probability for an away victory. The expected total goals is 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2, with a 24% chance of that outcome. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, which the model assigns a 12.2% probability. The home win probability sits at 11%, the draw at 20%, and the away win at 68%. Suggested picks include Over 1.5, with an 80.3% chance. The model’s edge is noted only for this pick.
Results analysis
The match saw Ararat-Armenia secure a 0-1 victory, extending their recent run with a win after a defeat. The model’s favourite, Away win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 68%. The predicted total of 3.0 goals was far from reality, as only one goal was scored, well below the expected 2-goal outcome. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5, missed, despite an 80.3% probability. The final result matched the model’s pick, but the total goal count fell short of the forecast. Overall, the prediction captured the winner but overestimated the scoring.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gandzasar win✗ Miss
11.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia win✓ Hit
68.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gandzasar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
2.07
0.60
2.27
0.27
1.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
3.00
0.20
3.20
0.17
2.83
vs Similar (12)
0.42
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
1.57
1.25
2.25
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.03
2.60
0.87
1.73
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (10)
1.60
1.40
1.50
1.50
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (18)
2.61
0.61
3.20
0.50
1.88
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.7%
Under 2.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.2%
0-1 ✓
10.4%
1-1
9.8%
1-2
9.6%
0-3
8.8%
1-3
7.0%
0-0
6.1%
0-4
4.8%
Gandzasar goals ↓
Ararat-Armenia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
10%
12%
8.8%
4.8%
1
3.2%
9.8%
9.6%
7.0%
3.8%
2
1.6%
3.5%
3.8%
2.7%
1.5%
3
0.4%
0.9%
1.0%
0.7%
0.4%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gandzasar goals (down), columns = Ararat-Armenia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
Gandzasar is 1.44 points worse than Ararat-Armenia in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 2.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
Gandzasar is 1.11 goals worse than Ararat-Armenia in terms of goals scored per game (0.74 vs 1.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
Gandzasar is 0.59 goals worse than Ararat-Armenia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.52 vs 0.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gandzasar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.77
0.40
0.73
0.20
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
1.18
0.20
1.00
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.42
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
1.13
0.47
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.70
0.50
0.75
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
0.39
1.40
0.30
0.88
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gandzasar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.13
1.30
0.20
1.53
0.07
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.00
1.82
0.00
2.20
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (12)
0.00
1.08
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.17
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.75
1.50
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.53
1.47
0.40
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.70
1.00
0.75
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
1.50
0.33
1.80
0.20
1.12
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Gandzasar's squad is €6m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€3m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Gandzasar's attack is €2m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Gandzasar's midfield is €1m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Gandzasar's defence is €3m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€1m vs €4m).
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Pyunik Yerevan
Alashkert
FC Urartu
Van
BKMA
Shirak
Ararat