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Gandzasar vs Ararat-Armenia Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 3-4
Gandzasar
Gandzasar
Vs
13%
21%
66%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Ararat-Armenia is the clear favourite to win this match, with the Pythia model predicting an away win with a probability of 66%. The model rates them highly due to Gandzasar's poor home form, conceding an average of 1 goal per match against stronger opponents. Ararat-Armenia's recent form is also a significant factor, having won 3 of their last 5 matches and coming off a 2-1 victory over FC Urartu.

The expected total goals in this match is 3.0, with the most likely score being 0-2 in favour of Ararat-Armenia, occurring with a probability of 11.7%. Gandzasar's home scoring has been non-existent, averaging 0 goals per match, while Ararat-Armenia's away scoring has been impressive, averaging 1.75 goals per match against weaker opponents.

The Pythia model's selection is the away win, with a probability of 66%. The model also suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals, which is predicted to hit with a probability of 80.4%. Gandzasar has a 13% chance of winning, a 21% chance of drawing, and a 66% chance of losing. Ararat-Armenia's suggested picks include the away win (66%) and Over 1.5 goals (80.4%).

Results analysis

The win extends Gandzasar's run of four consecutive losses, but it was Ararat-Armenia's away form that ultimately told the story. The 3-4 scoreline in favour of Ararat-Armenia confirms the actual result, which was an away win. The model's selection, Ararat-Armenia to win away, was correct, as it had a 66% probability of occurring. The model's call was well-supported, as the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 80.4% probability. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Ararat-Armenia to win away proved correct, while the pick of Over 1.5 goals also came in, as the final score was 3-4.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gandzasar win✗ Miss
12.8%
Avg Implied 12.5% · @ 7.26
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
8.15
Pinnacle
7.94
Marathonbet
7.80
10Bet
7.60
William Hil
7.50
Draw✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.29
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.71
Betfair
4.40
Dafabet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.40
Ararat-Armenia win✓ Hit
65.9%
Avg Implied 66.4% · @ 1.36
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Bet365
1.38
10Bet
1.36

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GandzasarGandzasar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W24L03L11D32W01L14L13L02L01LH·ARA21/03A·FC 05/04H·FC 10/04A·BKM19/04H·SHI26/04H·VAN02/05H·FC 06/05A·ALA09/05H·PYU18/05A·ARA27/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.500.941.350.621.69
vs Stronger (9)0.222.110.202.200.252.00
vs Similar (17)1.001.291.111.000.881.62
vs Weaker (4)1.251.001.671.000.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D20W40W40W20W10W04L32W10W12LH·ALA06/04A·PYU11/04A·SHI20/04H·ARA25/04A·FC 03/05H·PYU06/05H·FC 10/05A·BKM17/05H·GAN27/05A·SHA28/07
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.101.931.071.621.12
vs Stronger (2)1.003.001.002.001.004.00
vs Similar (10)1.401.301.001.751.671.00
vs Weaker (18)2.060.782.440.671.670.89
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%014%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.4%
@ 1.21+4.7%
Under 1.5
19.6%
@ 3.76-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.80
1xBet
3.72
Marathonbet
3.72
Superbet
3.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.7%
@ 1.74+3.8%
Under 2.5
43.3%
@ 1.96-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.80
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.98
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.3%
@ 2.83+1.9%
Under 3.5
65.7%
@ 1.35-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.93
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.83
Marathonbet
2.83
Superbet
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.9%
@ 1.94+4.2%
No
49.1%
@ 1.70-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
William Hil
1.95
Betfair
1.95
No
10Bet
1.77
Betfair
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.69

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.7%@ 5.81+4.3%
1-1
10.2%@ 7.76+4.7%
0-1
10.1%@ 5.78+2.7%
1-2
9.8%@ 7.46+4.1%
0-3
8.2%@ 8.40+3.1%
1-3
6.9%@ 10.82+3.0%
0-0
6.1%@ 10.71+2.1%
0-4
4.4%@ 14.69+1.5%
Gandzasar goals ↓
Ararat-Armenia goals →
01234
06.1%10%12%8.2%4.4%
13.4%10%9.8%6.9%3.7%
21.8%3.9%4.1%2.9%1.5%
30.5%1.1%1.1%0.8%0.4%
40.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gandzasar goals (down), columns = Ararat-Armenia goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Sardarapat
2.50
Pyunik Yerevan
2.20
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.33
Van
0.17
Gandzasar is 1.40 points worse than Ararat-Armenia in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
Pyunik Yerevan
1.80
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Syunik
0.50
Van
0.33
Gandzasar is 0.80 goals worse than Ararat-Armenia in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
Pyunik Yerevan
0.60
FC Noah
0.60
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Syunik
2.17
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Van
3.00
Gandzasar is 1.00 goals worse than Ararat-Armenia in terms of goals conceded per game (2.40 vs 1.40).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GandzasarGandzasar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W13L01L11D02L01L01L02L01L01LH·ARA21/03A·FC 05/04H·FC 10/04A·BKM19/04H·SHI26/04H·VAN02/05H·FC 06/05A·ALA09/05H·PYU18/05A·ARA27/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.730.470.530.311.00
vs Stronger (9)0.111.000.000.600.251.50
vs Similar (17)0.590.650.780.440.380.88
vs Weaker (4)0.250.500.330.670.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W20W20W00D10W02L01L10W02LH·ALA06/04A·PYU11/04A·SHI20/04H·ARA25/04A·FC 03/05H·PYU06/05H·FC 10/05A·BKM17/05H·GAN27/05A·SHA28/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.500.930.570.500.44
vs Stronger (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (10)0.600.600.750.750.500.50
vs Weaker (18)0.720.331.000.440.440.22
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GandzasarGandzasar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D02L00D30W00D13L11D01L00DH·ARA21/03A·FC 05/04H·FC 10/04A·BKM19/04H·SHI26/04H·VAN02/05H·FC 06/05A·ALA09/05H·PYU18/05A·ARA27/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.770.470.820.310.69
vs Stronger (9)0.111.110.201.600.000.50
vs Similar (17)0.410.650.330.560.500.75
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.330.330.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W20W20W20W00D02L31W00D10WH·ALA06/04A·PYU11/04A·SHI20/04H·ARA25/04A·FC 03/05H·PYU06/05H·FC 10/05A·BKM17/05H·GAN27/05A·SHA28/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.601.000.501.120.69
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (10)0.800.700.251.001.170.50
vs Weaker (18)1.330.441.440.221.220.67
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.4%1.21
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+4.7%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Gandzasar's squad is €6m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€3m vs €8m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Gandzasar's attack is €2m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€1m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Gandzasar's midfield is €1m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€1m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Gandzasar's defence is €3m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€1m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
0
GAN wins
0
Draws
6
ARA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gandzasar vs Ararat-Armenia · H/A from GAN
DateH/AGameScore
27/05/26AArarat-Armenia Vs GAN1-0
19/10/25HGAN Vs Ararat-Armenia0-1
05/10/25AArarat-Armenia Vs GAN1-0
25/04/25HGAN Vs Ararat-Armenia0-4
21/11/24AArarat-Armenia Vs GAN3-0
14/09/24HGAN Vs Ararat-Armenia0-3

GandzasarGandzasar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/05/26AArarat-Armenia Vs GAN1-0
18/05/26HGAN Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-2
09/05/26AAlashkert Vs GAN3-1
06/05/26HGAN Vs FC Noah1-4
02/05/26HGAN Vs Van0-1
26/04/26HGAN Vs Shirak3-2
19/04/26ABKMA Vs GAN1-1
10/04/26HGAN Vs FC Noah0-3
05/04/26AFC Urartu Vs GAN4-2
21/03/26HGAN Vs Ararat2-1

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/07/26AShamrock Rovers Vs ARA2-1
27/05/26HARA Vs Gandzasar1-0
17/05/26ABKMA Vs ARA2-3
10/05/26HARA Vs FC Noah0-4
06/05/26HARA Vs Pyunik Yerevan1-0
03/05/26AFC Urartu Vs ARA0-2
25/04/26HARA Vs Ararat4-0
20/04/26AShirak Vs ARA0-4
11/04/26APyunik Yerevan Vs ARA0-2
06/04/26HARA Vs Alashkert1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gandzasar
Gandzasar
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.54
HomeLWLLL0.77
AwayWLDLL0.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%19%4%
AVG goals2.522.732.29
Over 1.5 %64%65%62%
Over 2.5 %44%54%33%
Over 3.5 %26%35%17%
Scored0.600.730.46
Conceded1.922.001.83
BTTS38%42%33%
Clean Sheet14%15%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL2.02
HomeDWWLW2.21
AwayWWWWL1.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%67%54%
AVG goals3.003.212.81
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %66%71%62%
Over 3.5 %36%38%35%
Scored2.022.331.73
Conceded0.980.881.08
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet42%46%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC NoahFC Noah515
100%
3.0
133+10
3.2
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5342.60.6
-
2AlashkertAlashkert613
67%
2.2
142+12
2.7
83%
67%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.30.3
-
3Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan511
60%
2.2
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.80.6
-
4SardarapatSardarapat410
75%
2.5
104+6
3.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.51.0
-
5Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia510
60%
2.0
107+3
3.4
100%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.01.4
-
6FC UrartuFC Urartu58
40%
1.6
85+3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
7ShirakShirak57
40%
1.4
85+3
2.6
40%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.0
-
8BKMABKMA54
20%
0.8
46-2
2.0
60%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.2
-
9GandzasarGandzasar53
20%
0.6
612-6
3.6
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.22.4
-
10AraratArarat53
20%
0.6
312-9
3.0
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.62.4
-
11SyunikSyunik62
0%
0.3
313-10
2.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1000.52.2
-
12VanVan61
0%
0.2
218-16
3.3
100%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.33.0
-
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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