The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an average of 3.4 goals expected. The most likely total is three goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 10.5 % chance. Gandzasar, playing at home, has scored 1.4 goals and conceded 0.6 against similar opposition, while Ararat, on the road, has netted 1.5 but yielded 2.0 goals. The favourite result is a home win, with a 46 % probability; draws are 24 % and an away win 30 %.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.7 %), Under 6.5 (94.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (87.5 %), Under 5.5 (87.2 %), Over 1.5 (86.2 %), Home +2 handicap (85.8 %), and Home over 0.5 goals (85.0 %).
Gandzasar’s recent form shows two straight defeats before a 0-3 loss to Alashkert, while Ararat comes off a 0-2 defeat to Pyunik Yerevan. These results underscore the model’s confidence in a home victory and a moderate total of goals.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gandzasar win
46.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat win
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gandzasar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.70
1.00
1.59
0.62
1.85
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
2.30
0.67
2.50
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.44
1.12
1.00
0.88
1.88
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.25
1.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
2.43
0.64
1.64
0.88
3.12
vs Stronger (19)
0.53
2.84
0.56
1.78
0.50
3.80
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.73
0.80
1.40
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.6%
Under 1.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.9%
Under 2.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.9%
Under 3.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.2%
No
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
5.7%
1-0
5.6%
0-0
4.5%
Gandzasar goals ↓
Ararat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.2%
3.8%
1.9%
0.7%
1
5.6%
11%
7.2%
3.5%
1.3%
2
6.2%
9.1%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.9%
5.7%
4.2%
2.0%
0.8%
4
1.8%
2.7%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gandzasar goals (down), columns = Ararat goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Gandzasar and Ararat are level in average points per game (both 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Gandzasar is 0.60 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Gandzasar and Ararat are level in goals conceded per game (both 2.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gandzasar or Draw
70.5%
Avg Implied -
46%
24%
29%
covers Gandzasar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar or Ararat
75.6%
Avg Implied -
46%
24%
29%
covers Gandzasar + Ararat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ararat
53.9%
Avg Implied -
46%
24%
29%
covers Draw + Ararat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5
Over
84.6%
Under
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5
Over
55.8%
Under
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5
Over
28.8%
Under
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 3.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5
Over
77.0%
Under
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5
Over
43.3%
Under
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gandzasar, so a minus line means Gandzasar give that many goals of a start and Ararat receive them. At -1, Gandzasar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gandzasar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gandzasar)
Gandzasar -2
11.9%
Draw -2
14.2%
Ararat +2
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gandzasar)
Gandzasar -1
26.1%
Draw -1
20.0%
Ararat +1
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Gandzasar)
Gandzasar +1
70.5%
Draw +1
15.5%
Ararat -1
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Gandzasar)
Gandzasar +2
86.0%
Draw +2
8.8%
Ararat -2
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gandzasar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.47
0.59
0.31
1.08
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.10
0.17
0.83
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.62
0.75
0.25
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.75
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.00
0.14
0.79
0.44
1.19
vs Stronger (19)
0.21
1.11
0.11
0.89
0.30
1.30
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.82
0.20
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.4%
Under 0.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.9%
Under 1.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.1%
Under 2.5
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.2%
Under
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.4%
Under
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gandzasar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.90
0.53
1.00
0.31
0.77
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.20
0.50
1.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.81
0.38
0.75
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.43
0.50
0.86
0.44
1.94
vs Stronger (19)
0.32
1.74
0.44
0.89
0.20
2.50
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.91
0.60
0.80
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.4%
Under 0.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.5%
Under 1.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.6%
Under 2.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.4%
Under
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Gandzasar and Ararat have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Gandzasar and Ararat have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Gandzasar and Ararat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Gandzasar and Ararat have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
Shirak
BKMA
Syunik
Van