Defensive solidity will likely keep the scoreline tight, with Gandzasar’s home form showing a modest 0.8 goals per game while conceding 1.4. FC Urartu, on the road, averages 1.67 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, giving the visitors a clear edge. The model picks an away win, with a 57% chance for FC Urartu, a 28% draw probability, and a 15% home win chance. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal match. The single most likely score is 0-1 for FC Urartu, with a 15.5% probability. Suggested picks include Under 3.5, which carries an 81.5% chance. The home win percentage is 15%, the draw 28%, and the away win 57%. All selections are named exactly as in the model, and no additional commentary is offered.
Results analysis
The match finished 2-2, a draw that surprised everyone after the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win with a 57% probability, failed to materialise. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, with an 81.5% probability, also missed, as the total goals reached the threshold. Gandzasar’s recent form, after three straight defeats, was a stark contrast to FC Urartu’s more balanced run, yet the game ended in a stalemate. The model’s prediction was therefore incorrect, and the final score of 2-2 confirmed the unexpected outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gandzasar win✗ Miss
15.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu win✗ Miss
56.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gandzasar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.73
0.64
1.57
0.31
1.88
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
2.55
0.20
2.40
0.17
2.67
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.50
0.80
1.40
0.43
1.57
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.86
1.00
0.75
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.97
2.14
1.14
1.62
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.70
1.15
1.73
1.27
1.67
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
2.20
0.60
3.67
0.67
1.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.3%
Under 1.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.4%
Under 2.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.5%
Under 3.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.2%
No
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
15.5%
0-2
12.8%
1-1
12.6%
0-0
12.0%
1-2
8.8%
0-3
6.5%
1-0
6.3%
1-3
4.5%
Gandzasar goals ↓
FC Urartu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
15%
13%
6.5%
2.5%
1
6.3%
13%
8.8%
4.5%
1.7%
2
2.6%
3.9%
3.0%
1.5%
0.6%
3
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gandzasar goals (down), columns = FC Urartu goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
Gandzasar is 1.04 points worse than FC Urartu in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
Gandzasar is 0.85 goals worse than FC Urartu in terms of goals scored per game (0.74 vs 1.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
Gandzasar is 0.56 goals worse than FC Urartu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.52 vs 0.96).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gandzasar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.57
0.36
0.36
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.33
0.60
0.40
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (7)
0.14
0.29
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.45
0.91
0.55
0.44
0.33
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.20
1.33
0.33
0.57
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gandzasar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
1.17
0.29
1.21
0.06
1.12
vs Stronger (11)
0.00
1.55
0.00
1.80
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (12)
0.08
1.17
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.29
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.57
0.75
0.75
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.60
1.14
0.64
1.12
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.00
0.70
0.82
0.73
1.22
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.40
2.33
0.33
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Gandzasar's squad is €3m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Gandzasar's attack is €1m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Gandzasar and FC Urartu have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Gandzasar's defence is €1m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€1m vs €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →