The model favours an away win for FC Urartu, with a 58 % chance of victory, a 25 % draw probability, and a 17 % chance of a Gandzasar win. The expected total goals sit at 2.6, with the most likely total of two goals at 26 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 12.1 % probability. Gandzasar, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.86 goals scored and 2.43 conceded, while FC Urartu, on the road versus a weaker side, averages 1.22 goals scored and 0.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.9 %), Under 6.5 (98.3 %), Under 5.5 (95.1 %), Home under 2.5 goals (94.6 %), Away +2 handicap (94.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (89.8 %), and Under 4.5 (87.7 %). Gandzasar’s recent form shows a 2-game losing streak after a 0-3 loss to Alashkert, while FC Urartu is on a 2-game winning run, having beaten Shirak 1-0.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gandzasar win
14.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu win
61.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gandzasar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.70
1.00
1.59
0.62
1.85
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
2.30
0.67
2.50
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.44
1.12
1.00
0.88
1.88
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.25
1.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.00
2.07
1.40
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.65
1.10
2.00
1.29
1.14
vs Weaker (13)
2.23
0.15
4.00
0.20
1.12
0.12
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.0%
Under 2.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.1%
Under 3.5
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.2%
No
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
12.1%
0-2
12.1%
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.2%
0-3
7.4%
1-3
5.9%
1-0
4.7%
Gandzasar goals ↓
FC Urartu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
12%
12%
7.4%
3.4%
1
4.7%
12%
9.7%
5.9%
2.7%
2
2.3%
4.2%
3.8%
2.4%
1.1%
3
0.6%
1.1%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gandzasar goals (down), columns = FC Urartu goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Gandzasar is 1.00 points worse than FC Urartu in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Gandzasar is 0.40 goals worse than FC Urartu in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Gandzasar is 1.40 goals worse than FC Urartu in terms of goals conceded per game (2.40 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gandzasar or Draw
39.0%
Avg Implied -
15%
24%
61%
covers Gandzasar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar or FC Urartu
75.7%
Avg Implied -
15%
24%
61%
covers Gandzasar + FC Urartu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Urartu
85.3%
Avg Implied -
15%
24%
61%
covers Draw + FC Urartu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5
Over
54.9%
Under
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5
Over
84.1%
Under
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5
Over
54.8%
Under
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 3.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gandzasar, so a minus line means Gandzasar give that many goals of a start and FC Urartu receive them. At -1, Gandzasar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gandzasar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gandzasar)
Gandzasar -2
1.1%
Draw -2
3.6%
FC Urartu +2
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gandzasar)
Gandzasar -1
4.7%
Draw -1
10.0%
FC Urartu +1
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Gandzasar)
Gandzasar +1
39.0%
Draw +1
24.5%
FC Urartu -1
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Gandzasar)
Gandzasar +2
63.5%
Draw +2
19.2%
FC Urartu -2
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gandzasar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.47
0.59
0.31
1.08
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.10
0.17
0.83
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.62
0.75
0.25
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.75
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.37
0.93
0.40
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.65
0.60
0.60
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.00
1.60
0.00
0.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gandzasar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.90
0.53
1.00
0.31
0.77
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.20
0.50
1.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.81
0.38
0.75
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.13
1.00
0.80
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.59
1.00
0.50
1.40
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (13)
1.46
0.15
2.40
0.20
0.88
0.12
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Gandzasar's squad is €3m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Gandzasar's attack is €1m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Gandzasar and FC Urartu have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Gandzasar's defence is €1m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€1m vs €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
Shirak
BKMA
Ararat
Syunik
Van