Gandzasar is likely to come out on top in this match, having recently come off a win against Syunik, and they're expected to continue their momentum at home. However, Shirak has shown resilience, especially when playing away against stronger opponents, conceding an average of 2.8 goals in such matches.
The model predicts a home win with a 47% probability, with a draw at 27% and an away win at 25%. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.9% probability.
Gandzasar tends to score an average of 1.5 goals at home and concede 1.17 goals, while Shirak scores 0.6 goals when playing away against stronger opponents and concedes 2.8 goals.
The model's selection is the home win, with the Over 1.5 model's selection at 76.8% and the Under 3.5 model's selection at 70.8%. Gandzasar has a 47% chance of winning, a 27% chance of drawing, and a 25% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Gandzasar's 0-1 loss to Shirak marks a stunning upset in the Armenia: Premier League. The win extends Shirak's run, coming off a win in their previous encounter against Gandzasar. However, the pre-match favourite, Gandzasar, failed to come through, with the model's selection of Home win being incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as Gandzasar's Home win was only assigned a 47% probability.
In the model's selections, Over 1.5 was the model's choice, with a 76.6% probability, but it missed its mark. On the other hand, Under 3.5 hit its mark, with a 71.1% probability. The final score of 0-1 resulted in an Away win, which was the actual result.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gandzasar win✗ Miss
46.6%
Avg Implied 42.4% · @ 2.12
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
2.15
888Sport
2.15
Bet365
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.04
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.20
Dafabet
3.15
BetVictor
3.13
Betano
3.10
Pinnacle
3.08
Shirak win✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.21
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.42
Dafabet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.39
Marathonbet
3.34
Bet365
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gandzasar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.60
1.18
1.53
0.62
1.69
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
2.30
0.67
2.50
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.24
1.33
0.89
0.88
1.62
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
2.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shirak
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.87
0.86
1.64
0.50
2.06
vs Stronger (20)
0.50
2.10
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.70
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.40
1.75
2.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.6%
@ 1.32+7.3%
Under 1.5
23.4%
@ 2.99-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.11
888Sport
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.92
1xBet
2.92
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.0%
@ 2.01+5.7%
Under 2.5
49.0%
@ 1.67-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.06
10Bet
2.05
888Sport
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.9%
@ 3.57+3.3%
Under 3.5
71.1%
@ 1.23-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.80
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.42
1xBet
3.42
Under
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.0%
@ 1.77+4.0%
No
45.0%
@ 1.85-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.80
10Bet
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
No
888Sport
1.91
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 5.60+5.3%
2-1
9.4%@ 8.65+4.4%
1-0
9.3%@ 6.70+2.8%
2-0
8.3%@ 9.68+3.8%
0-0
7.8%@ 7.59+2.1%
1-2
6.7%@ 11.19+2.8%
0-1 ✓
6.3%@ 8.76+1.3%
2-2
5.3%@ 13.66+2.1%
Gandzasar goals ↓
Shirak goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
6.3%
4.2%
1.6%
0.5%
1
9.3%
13%
6.7%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.4%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.4%
5.0%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.7%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gandzasar goals (down), columns = Shirak goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Gandzasar is 0.80 points worse than Shirak in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Gandzasar is 0.40 goals worse than Shirak in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Gandzasar is 1.40 goals worse than Shirak in terms of goals conceded per game (2.40 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gandzasar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.53
0.53
0.31
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.10
0.17
0.83
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.53
0.78
0.22
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shirak
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.36
0.64
0.38
0.94
vs Stronger (20)
0.25
0.95
0.10
0.60
0.40
1.30
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.75
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gandzasar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.65
1.00
0.31
0.69
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.20
0.50
1.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.71
0.56
0.67
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shirak
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.07
0.50
1.00
0.12
1.12
vs Stronger (20)
0.25
1.15
0.40
0.90
0.10
1.40
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.90
0.75
1.25
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.6%
1.32
10Bet
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
+7.3%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.1%
1.23
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
-
-3.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Gandzasar and Shirak have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Gandzasar and Shirak have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Gandzasar and Shirak have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Gandzasar and Shirak have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
BKMA
Ararat
Syunik
Van