Gaziantep FK will face a tough challenge against Başakşehir, who are tipped to win the match. The model indicates a 44 % chance for the away side, with both teams each having a 28 % chance of drawing or winning at home. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, and the most likely exact score is 1-1, a 13.3 % probability. Gaziantep, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.25 goals scored and concedes 3.0, while Başakşehir, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.12 goals scored and 0.62 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals (76.1 %), Under 3.5 goals (71.7 %), Over 19.5 fouls (93.7 %), Over 21.5 fouls (86.7 %), Over 23.5 fouls (76.0 %), Over 2.5 cards (88.3 %), and Over 3.5 cards (74.7 %). Each pick is presented with its probability, and the edge percentages are omitted as they are not provided.
Results analysis
Gaziantep FK entered the match on a win, while Başakşehir returned from a defeat, setting up a compelling clash. The Pythia model predicted an away win with a 44 % probability, and the result matched the forecast as Başakşehir triumphed 1-2. The model’s favourite was correct. Its suggested selections all hit: Over 1.5 goals at 76.1 % confidence, Over 2.5 cards at 88.3 %, Over 3.5 cards at 74.7 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 93.7 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 86.7 %, Over 23.5 fouls at 76.0 %, and Under 3.5 at 71.7 %. The match confirmed the model’s overall accuracy, with the favoured result and most of its picks coming through.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gaziantep FK win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 3.90
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.09
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Başakşehir win✓ Hit
44.0%
Avg Implied 54.0% · @ 1.70
Edge
-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gaziantep FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.73
1.07
1.50
1.50
1.94
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
2.67
0.25
3.00
1.00
2.40
vs Similar (21)
1.57
1.33
1.40
0.90
1.73
1.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Başakşehir) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Başakşehir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.13
2.19
1.25
1.64
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.17
1.33
2.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (7)
2.14
1.57
2.50
2.25
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
2.24
0.59
2.33
0.56
2.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gaziantep FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.3%
@ 1.42-14.9%
Under 2.5
49.7%
@ 2.66+14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.3%
Under 3.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-2 ✓
9.2%
0-1
9.1%
0-0
8.0%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
7.1%
1-0
6.8%
2-2
5.4%
Gaziantep FK goals ↓
Başakşehir goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
9.1%
7.8%
4.0%
1.5%
1
6.8%
13%
9.2%
4.6%
1.8%
2
4.7%
7.1%
5.4%
2.7%
1.0%
3
1.8%
2.8%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gaziantep FK goals (down), columns = Başakşehir goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Trabzonspor
2.03
Beşiktaş
1.76
Başakşehir
1.68
Göztepe
1.62
Samsunspor
1.50
Rizespor
1.21
Konyaspor
1.18
Kocaelispor
1.09
Alanyaspor
1.09
Gaziantep FK
1.09
Kasımpaşa
1.03
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.97
Antalyaspor
0.94
Kayserispor
0.88
Fatih Karagümrük
0.88
Gaziantep FK is 0.59 points worse than Başakşehir in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.26
Trabzonspor
1.79
Beşiktaş
1.74
Başakşehir
1.71
Rizespor
1.35
Samsunspor
1.35
Konyaspor
1.26
Gaziantep FK
1.26
Göztepe
1.24
Alanyaspor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.06
Eyüpspor
0.97
Antalyaspor
0.97
Kasımpaşa
0.97
Fatih Karagümrük
0.91
Kayserispor
0.79
Kocaelispor
0.76
Gaziantep FK is 0.44 goals worse than Başakşehir in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galatasaray
0.88
Göztepe
0.94
Başakşehir
1.03
Fenerbahçe
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.12
Trabzonspor
1.15
Beşiktaş
1.18
Alanyaspor
1.21
Samsunspor
1.32
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.38
Eyüpspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Konyaspor
1.47
Rizespor
1.53
Fatih Karagümrük
1.59
Antalyaspor
1.62
Gaziantep FK
1.71
Kayserispor
1.82
Gaziantep FK is 0.68 goals worse than Başakşehir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Galatasaray
62%
Fenerbahçe
59%
Beşiktaş
56%
Trabzonspor
55%
Başakşehir
54%
Samsunspor
54%
Konyaspor
52%
Rizespor
50%
Gaziantep FK
50%
Kocaelispor
50%
Alanyaspor
48%
Eyüpspor
48%
Kayserispor
47%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
Antalyaspor
45%
Kasımpaşa
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
43%
Göztepe
38%
Gaziantep FK is 4.6 percentage points worse than Başakşehir in terms of average possession (50% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Gaziantep FK
For 4.9 · Against 6.4 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 14.8 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Başakşehir
For 4.3 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 12.9 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gaziantep FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.8
9.1
5.1
5.3
4.8
28.8
28.2
29.3
vs Stronger (14)
10.6
11.5
9.9
5.4
4.9
6.0
28.4
26.2
30.3
vs Similar (34)
9.5
10.3
8.8
5.0
5.5
4.5
29.5
29.9
29.2
vs Weaker (2)
11.5
14.0
9.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
21.0
17.0
25.0
% over line
48%
57%
39%
72%
75%
69%
91%
86%
96%
% under line
52%
43%
61%
28%
25%
31%
9%
14%
4%
This opponent (Başakşehir) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Başakşehir
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.0
10.8
4.5
4.8
4.1
26.7
27.2
26.2
vs Stronger (9)
11.1
10.8
11.5
4.6
5.5
3.8
23.1
24.2
22.0
vs Similar (14)
9.6
8.8
10.3
4.3
5.0
3.6
27.0
26.5
27.4
vs Weaker (27)
9.6
8.6
10.8
4.6
4.6
4.5
27.8
28.5
27.0
% over line
53%
43%
64%
64%
72%
56%
87%
91%
82%
% under line
47%
57%
36%
36%
28%
44%
13%
9%
18%
This opponent (Gaziantep FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
10.8
Beşiktaş
10.1
Kayserispor
10.0
Samsunspor
9.9
Gaziantep FK
9.8
Konyaspor
9.7
Başakşehir
9.7
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.5
Rizespor
9.4
Trabzonspor
9.3
Göztepe
9.2
Antalyaspor
9.2
Galatasaray
9.1
Kasımpaşa
9.1
Eyüpspor
9.1
Fatih Karagümrük
8.7
Alanyaspor
8.1
Kocaelispor
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
6.0
Fenerbahçe
5.9
Konyaspor
5.4
Kasımpaşa
5.2
Alanyaspor
5.1
Antalyaspor
5.1
Göztepe
5.0
Eyüpspor
4.9
Başakşehir
4.9
Beşiktaş
4.9
Trabzonspor
4.8
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.7
Rizespor
4.7
Kocaelispor
4.7
Galatasaray
4.7
Samsunspor
4.6
Kayserispor
4.6
Fatih Karagümrük
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fatih Karagümrük
29.0
Gaziantep FK
29.0
Kasımpaşa
27.8
Antalyaspor
27.1
Alanyaspor
27.0
Kocaelispor
26.7
Başakşehir
26.7
Göztepe
26.5
Trabzonspor
26.3
Rizespor
26.2
Fenerbahçe
25.9
Eyüpspor
25.8
Samsunspor
25.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.5
Kayserispor
25.4
Beşiktaş
25.3
Konyaspor
25.2
Galatasaray
23.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.5%
Under 9.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.7%
Under 3.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
86.7%
Under 21.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gaziantep FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.64
0.79
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.22
0.25
1.75
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.48
0.80
0.40
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Başakşehir) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Başakşehir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.37
1.00
0.50
0.79
0.21
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.43
1.25
0.75
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.24
1.11
0.33
1.12
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Gaziantep FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gaziantep FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gaziantep FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gaziantep FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Başakşehir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Başakşehir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Başakşehir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gaziantep FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.03
0.43
0.71
0.88
1.31
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.44
0.00
1.25
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.86
0.60
0.50
1.00
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Başakşehir) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Başakşehir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.77
1.19
0.75
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.14
1.25
1.50
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.35
1.22
0.22
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Gaziantep FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gaziantep FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gaziantep FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gaziantep FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Başakşehir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Başakşehir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Başakşehir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (23)
€260m
TRA (29)
€116m
GÖZ (28)
€80m
BAŞ (30)
€75m
SAM (26)
€56m
RIZ (45)
€49m
ALA (31)
€42m
KON (32)
€37m
EYÜ (35)
€36m
GF (30)
€30m
KAY (34)
€27m
ANT (29)
€22m
FK (32)
€21m
KOC (24)
€21m
Gaziantep FK's squad is €45m less valuable than Başakşehir's (€30m vs €75m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€151m
TRA (11)
€48m
GÖZ (12)
€42m
BAŞ (10)
€36m
SAM (9)
€30m
RIZ (17)
€18m
ALA (12)
€15m
GF (12)
€15m
KON (10)
€15m
KAY (13)
€12m
FK (13)
€11m
EYÜ (14)
€10m
ANT (11)
€9m
KOC (10)
€7m
Gaziantep FK's attack is €21m less valuable than Başakşehir's (€15m vs €36m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (4)
€43m
GÖZ (5)
€24m
TRA (8)
€23m
ALA (9)
€15m
BAŞ (6)
€13m
RIZ (9)
€10m
KON (8)
€8m
KOC (6)
€8m
SAM (5)
€8m
EYÜ (8)
€7m
GF (5)
€6m
KAY (7)
€5m
ANT (5)
€5m
FK (6)
€4m
Gaziantep FK's midfield is €6m less valuable than Başakşehir's (€6m vs €13m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (10)
€66m
TRA (10)
€45m
BAŞ (14)
€26m
RIZ (19)
€21m
SAM (12)
€19m
EYÜ (13)
€18m
GÖZ (11)
€15m
KON (14)
€14m
ALA (10)
€11m
KAY (14)
€9m
GF (13)
€9m
ANT (13)
€8m
FK (13)
€6m
KOC (8)
€6m
Gaziantep FK's defence is €18m less valuable than Başakşehir's (€9m vs €26m).
Turkey: Süper Lig 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →
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Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe
Trabzonspor
Beşiktaş
Göztepe
Samsunspor
Rizespor
Konyaspor
Alanyaspor
Kocaelispor
Kasımpaşa
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Eyüpspor
Antalyaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
Kayserispor