Defensive solidity is the theme for this match. The model sees a 34% chance for a home win, 33% for a draw and 33% for an away win, with the home side favoured as the most likely outcome. The expected total of goals is 2.0, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.9% probability. Gençlerbirliği, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.25 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Fenerbahçe, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. The model’s selection includes an 85.2% chance of Under 3.5, a hit this time. The home win probability is 34%, the draw 33%, and the away win 33%. The final score of 1-2 confirmed an away win, but the predicted 1-1 remains the most likely outcome.
Results analysis
The upset came as Gençlerbirliği S.K. failed to convert the pre-match favourite into a win, with Fenerbahçe securing a 1-2 victory. The model had tipped a home win at 34% probability, but the result was an away win, so the call was wrong. The only other selection was Under 3.5 goals, with an 85.2% probability, and it hit as the match produced just two goals. Gençlerbirliği had been coming off a draw in their last five, while Fenerbahçe were on a three-game winning streak away from home. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the model’s prediction of a low-scoring affair, yet the favourite did not deliver.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gençlerbirliği S.K. win✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe win✓ Hit
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.03
1.07
0.50
0.75
1.50
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.44
0.25
0.50
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (17)
1.12
0.94
1.50
0.50
0.78
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fenerbahçe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.93
1.69
0.88
1.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
1.92
1.04
1.79
1.00
2.08
1.08
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gençlerbirliği S.K.) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.5%
Under 1.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
33.1%
Under 2.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.8%
Under 3.5
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.0%
No
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%
0-0
14.5%
1-0
12.0%
0-1
11.9%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
6.8%
1-2 ✓
6.8%
0-2
6.7%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. goals ↓
Fenerbahçe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
12%
6.7%
2.3%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
2
6.8%
6.9%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
3
2.3%
2.3%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gençlerbirliği S.K. goals (down), columns = Fenerbahçe goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Beşiktaş
2.26
Başakşehir
2.15
Fenerbahçe
1.88
Galatasaray
1.88
Antalyaspor
1.71
Trabzonspor
1.50
Akhisar Belediyespor
1.41
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.35
Konyaspor
1.26
Karabukspor
1.26
Kasımpaşa
1.26
Alanyaspor
1.18
Bursaspor
1.12
Osmanlispor
1.12
Kayserispor
1.12
Rizespor
1.06
Gaziantep FK
0.76
Adanaspor
0.74
Gençlerbirliği S.K. is 0.53 points worse than Fenerbahçe in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Beşiktaş
2.15
Galatasaray
1.91
Başakşehir
1.85
Fenerbahçe
1.76
Alanyaspor
1.59
Antalyaspor
1.38
Kayserispor
1.38
Kasımpaşa
1.35
Akhisar Belediyespor
1.35
Rizespor
1.29
Konyaspor
1.18
Trabzonspor
1.15
Karabukspor
1.12
Osmanlispor
1.09
Bursaspor
1.00
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
0.97
Adanaspor
0.94
Gaziantep FK
0.88
Gençlerbirliği S.K. is 0.79 goals worse than Fenerbahçe in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Başakşehir
0.82
Beşiktaş
0.88
Fenerbahçe
0.94
Trabzonspor
1.00
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Galatasaray
1.18
Antalyaspor
1.18
Akhisar Belediyespor
1.24
Konyaspor
1.32
Osmanlispor
1.32
Karabukspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Rizespor
1.56
Bursaspor
1.71
Kayserispor
1.71
Adanaspor
1.82
Gaziantep FK
1.91
Alanyaspor
1.91
Gençlerbirliği S.K. is 0.06 goals worse than Fenerbahçe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Fenerbahçe
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fenerbahçe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (44)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Gençlerbirliği S.K.) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.57
0.36
0.31
0.88
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.56
0.25
0.25
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.71
0.88
0.38
0.22
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fenerbahçe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
0.81
0.50
1.07
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
1.04
0.54
0.86
0.57
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Gençlerbirliği S.K.) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.40
0.50
0.14
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.89
0.00
0.25
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.24
0.62
0.12
0.56
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fenerbahçe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.43
0.88
0.38
0.86
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.88
0.50
0.93
0.43
0.83
0.58
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Gençlerbirliği S.K.) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adama Malouda Traoré33%
Sekou Koita33%
Oğulcan Ülgün33%
Franco Tongya33%
Pedro Pereira0%
Dimitris Goutas0%
İrfan Can Eğribayat0%
Abdurrahim Dursun0%
Žan Žužek0%
Ousmane Diabate0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pedro Pereira33%
Dimitris Goutas33%
Oğulcan Ülgün33%
Ousmane Diabate33%
Adama Malouda Traoré0%
Sekou Koita0%
İrfan Can Eğribayat0%
Abdurrahim Dursun0%
Žan Žužek0%
Franco Tongya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sekou Koita33%
Oğulcan Ülgün33%
Abdurrahim Dursun33%
Ousmane Diabate33%
Adama Malouda Traoré0%
Pedro Pereira0%
Dimitris Goutas0%
İrfan Can Eğribayat0%
Žan Žužek0%
Franco Tongya0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sekou Koita33%
Franco Tongya33%
Ousmane Diabate33%
Adama Malouda Traoré0%
Pedro Pereira0%
Dimitris Goutas0%
Oğulcan Ülgün0%
İrfan Can Eğribayat0%
Abdurrahim Dursun0%
Žan Žužek0%
Fenerbahçe · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Talisca67%
Vedat Muriqi50%
Mason Greenwood38%
Marco Asensio17%
Archie Brown17%
Oğuz Aydın14%
Nélson Semedo0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Ederson0%
Fred0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Mattéo Guendouzi0%
Mert Müldür0%
N'Golo Kanté0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
İrfan Can Kahveci0%
Levent Mercan0%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu0%
İsmail Yüksek0%
Dorgeles Nene0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fred33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu33%
Nélson Semedo25%
Milan Škriniar25%
Romelu Lukaku25%
Mattéo Guendouzi25%
Dorgeles Nene25%
Archie Brown17%
N'Golo Kanté14%
Mason Greenwood12%
Ederson0%
Marco Asensio0%
Mert Müldür0%
Talisca0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
İrfan Can Kahveci0%
Vedat Muriqi0%
Levent Mercan0%
Oğuz Aydın0%
İsmail Yüksek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Levent Mercan33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu33%
Mason Greenwood25%
İrfan Can Kahveci20%
Marco Asensio17%
Vedat Muriqi17%
Oğuz Aydın14%
Nélson Semedo0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Ederson0%
Fred0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Mattéo Guendouzi0%
Mert Müldür0%
N'Golo Kanté0%
Talisca0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
Archie Brown0%
İsmail Yüksek0%
Dorgeles Nene0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Talisca67%
Vedat Muriqi33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu33%
Mason Greenwood25%
İsmail Yüksek17%
Oğuz Aydın14%
Nélson Semedo0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Ederson0%
Marco Asensio0%
Fred0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Mattéo Guendouzi0%
Mert Müldür0%
N'Golo Kanté0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
İrfan Can Kahveci0%
Levent Mercan0%
Archie Brown0%
Dorgeles Nene0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
BEŞ (34)
€202m
TRA (31)
€168m
BAŞ (32)
€77m
RIZ (24)
€44m
ALA (29)
€38m
KON (26)
€33m
KAS (31)
€31m
GF (28)
€28m
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
GS (19)
€15m
KAY (23)
€12m
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s squad is €318m less valuable than Fenerbahçe's (€15m vs €332m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€173m
FEN (14)
€162m
BEŞ (11)
€70m
TRA (11)
€67m
BAŞ (13)
€40m
KAS (13)
€14m
GF (14)
€14m
KON (10)
€13m
RIZ (8)
€12m
BUR (10)
€10m
ALA (11)
€9m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
GS (4)
€4m
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack is €158m less valuable than Fenerbahçe's (€4m vs €162m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
BEŞ (9)
€50m
TRA (9)
€38m
ALA (9)
€18m
BAŞ (6)
€10m
GF (5)
€8m
RIZ (4)
€7m
GS (6)
€5m
KAS (7)
€4m
BUR (5)
€4m
KON (4)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
KAY (4)
€2m
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s midfield is €57m less valuable than Fenerbahçe's (€5m vs €62m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
BEŞ (14)
€82m
TRA (11)
€63m
BAŞ (13)
€28m
RIZ (12)
€25m
KON (12)
€16m
KAS (11)
€12m
ALA (9)
€11m
ANT (11)
€7m
GF (9)
€6m
GS (9)
€5m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence is €103m less valuable than Fenerbahçe's (€5m vs €108m).
Turkey: Süper Lig 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →
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Beşiktaş
Başakşehir
Galatasaray
Antalyaspor
Trabzonspor
Kasımpaşa
Konyaspor
Alanyaspor
Kayserispor
Bursaspor
Rizespor
Gaziantep FK
Adanaspor