Getafe vs Alaves Result & Analysis

Defensive solidity will shape this tight encounter, with Getafe’s home form showing 0.88 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game against similarly matched opponents, while Alaves, on the road, averages 1.46 scored and 0.85 conceded. The model’s pick is a home win, and the probabilities are 42% for Getafe, 33% for a draw, and 24% for Alaves. The expected total is 1.9 goals, with the most likely total goal count being 2, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-0 at 15.7%. The match is projected to be low-scoring, so a clean sheet for Getafe is a logical expectation. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 96.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 92.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 91.8%, Over 23.5 fouls at 83.8%, Over 3.5 cards at 81.7%, Over 25.5 fouls at 72.4%, and Under 11.5 corners at 70.3%. The model also predicts Under 3.5 at 86.9%, which is expected to miss. Getafe’s recent form after two straight defeats and Alaves’ return from a win set the narrative for a cautious, defensive battle.

The win extends Getafe’s recent run, ending a string of two straight defeats. The model had picked a home win with a 42% probability, and the result was a 4-0 victory, confirming the prediction. The most likely scoreline of 1-0 and the 2-goal total were not reached, but the model’s favoured outcome was correct. The suggested picks all came in: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 96.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 92.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 91.8%, Over 23.5 fouls at 83.8%, Over 3.5 cards at 81.7%, Over 25.5 fouls at 72.4%, and Under 11.5 corners at 70.3%. Only Under 3.5 missed, at 86.9%. The selections largely aligned with the match’s reality.