PythiaFootballBETA
This match is expected to be a closely contested affair, with Girona coming off a draw against Elche. The model predicts a home win, with a 49% probability of Girona securing all three points. The draw is the second most likely outcome, at 25%, while Elche's away win is the least likely, at 26%. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 11.8%.
Girona has been scoring 1.75 goals and conceding 1.25 goals at home, with an opponent strength similar to Elche. Elche, on the other hand, has been scoring 0.89 goals and conceding 1.89 goals away, with an opponent strength similar to Girona. The model's selection is the home win, with Girona winning 49% of the time, the draw at 25%, and Elche winning 26% of the time. The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (82.3%), Over 1.5 goals (81.7%), and Over 3.5 cards (71.7%).
The draw between Girona and Elche extends Girona's run of consecutive draws to five. This outcome was a surprise, as Girona were expected to come out on top, but instead, the match ended 1-1. The model's selection, a home win, was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 49%. The model's call was incorrect, as the actual result was a draw. Meanwhile, the model's selection of over 21.5 fouls hit, with a probability of 82.3%, as did over 1.5 goals, and over 3.5 cards, both at 81.7% and 71.7% respectively.
Girona| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.27 | 1.36 | 1.21 | 1.00 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.83 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.28 | 1.22 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.17 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
Elche| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.67 | 1.60 | 1.13 | 0.93 | 2.20 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 1.23 | 2.23 | 1.43 | 1.86 | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.29 | 1.24 | 1.75 | 0.50 | 0.89 | 1.89 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Elche goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 12% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.7% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
GironaElcheGirona| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 24.6 | 24.3 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 11.1 | 8.2 | 14.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 19.6 | 20.8 | 18.5 |
| vs Similar (32) | 9.6 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 24.8 | 23.8 | 25.8 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 8.8 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 28.1 | 28.6 | 27.6 |
| % over line | 42% | 36% | 48% | 48% | 56% | 40% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| % under line | 58% | 64% | 52% | 52% | 44% | 60% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
Elche| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.5 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 27.5 | 26.0 | 29.0 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 8.8 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 26.6 | 24.6 | 28.5 |
| vs Similar (29) | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 28.3 | 27.8 | 28.8 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 9.2 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 7.0 | 25.6 | 21.0 | 32.5 |
| % over line | 36% | 40% | 32% | 66% | 60% | 72% | 86% | 76% | 96% |
| % under line | 64% | 60% | 68% | 34% | 40% | 28% | 14% | 24% | 4% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 fouls | 82.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 81.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 16/04/23 | H | 2-0 | |
| 08/11/22 | A | 1-2 | |
| 19/06/20 | A | 1-0 | |
| 12/10/19 | H | 0-2 | |
| 27/01/17 | A | 1-0 | |
| 27/08/16 | H | 3-1 | |
| 15/05/16 | A | 1-1 |
Girona| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 14/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 3-0 |
Elche| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 4-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 94 | 82% | 2.5 | 95 | 36 | +59 | 3.4 | 89% | 74% | 42% | 11.3 | 68% | 4.5 | 51% | 21.4 | 50% | 1301 | 589 | 298 | 413 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 69% |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 38 | 86 | 71% | 2.3 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 2.9 | 87% | 55% | 26% | 9.9 | 55% | 4.8 | 54% | 24.4 | 68% | 1256 | 712 | 250 | 294 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 59% |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 38 | 72 | 58% | 1.9 | 72 | 46 | +26 | 3.1 | 92% | 58% | 37% | 9.1 | 45% | 4.3 | 58% | 24.1 | 61% | 360 | 168 | 55 | 137 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 45% |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 38 | 69 | 55% | 1.8 | 62 | 44 | +18 | 2.8 | 74% | 50% | 26% | 10.8 | 61% | 4.4 | 59% | 20.9 | 39% | 540 | 226 | 123 | 190 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | 60 | 39% | 1.6 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 2.8 | 89% | 53% | 26% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 65% | 23.7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 53 | 48 | +5 | 2.7 | 79% | 45% | 24% | 8.4 | 29% | 4.4 | 58% | 24.1 | 63% | 200 | 81 | 39 | 80 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 7 |  Getafe | 38 | 51 | 39% | 1.3 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 1.8 | 58% | 26% | 5% | 8.9 | 37% | 5.6 | 79% | 29.8 | 100% | 94 | 46 | 25 | 23 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 40% |
| 8 |  Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 50 | 32% | 1.3 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 2.2 | 71% | 37% | 16% | 10.9 | 66% | 5.3 | 74% | 24.5 | 76% | 94 | 29 | 11 | 54 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 9 |  Valencia | 38 | 49 | 34% | 1.3 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 2.7 | 79% | 42% | 24% | 9.9 | 45% | 4.6 | 68% | 24.2 | 66% | 147 | 54 | 46 | 47 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 38 | 46 | 29% | 1.2 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 3.2 | 82% | 58% | 42% | 10.1 | 53% | 5.0 | 63% | 26.6 | 76% | 270 | 132 | 54 | 83 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 11 |  Espanyol | 38 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 2.6 | 76% | 50% | 24% | 9.5 | 45% | 5.2 | 70% | 26.5 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 42% |
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 38 | 45 | 34% | 1.2 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 2.7 | 74% | 47% | 21% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 67% | 24.3 | 66% | 236 | 103 | 57 | 76 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 13 | Elche | 38 | 43 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 2.8 | 79% | 58% | 39% | 8.3 | 34% | 4.6 | 71% | 28.3 | 92% | 127 | 34 | 37 | 56 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 14 |  Alaves | 38 | 43 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 2.6 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 10.1 | 53% | 4.9 | 74% | 28.4 | 95% | 78 | 26 | 22 | 29 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 15 |  Sevilla | 38 | 43 | 32% | 1.1 | 46 | 60 | -14 | 2.8 | 79% | 55% | 26% | 9.3 | 50% | 5.2 | 68% | 27.6 | 82% | 163 | 65 | 28 | 70 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 2.5 | 68% | 50% | 26% | 8.6 | 32% | 5.1 | 79% | 25.1 | 82% | 99 | 51 | 13 | 35 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 17 |  Mallorca | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 2.7 | 84% | 63% | 21% | 10.0 | 58% | 4.7 | 62% | 24.6 | 74% | 77 | 31 | 23 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 18 |  Levante | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 2.8 | 87% | 45% | 29% | 10.2 | 47% | 4.9 | 71% | 25.3 | 76% | 111 | 68 | 15 | 27 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 19 | Girona | 38 | 41 | 24% | 1.1 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 2.5 | 79% | 45% | 16% | 9.4 | 39% | 4.4 | 50% | 25.0 | 71% | 199 | 83 | 33 | 84 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 38 | 29 | 16% | 0.8 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 2.3 | 66% | 39% | 16% | 9.5 | 47% | 4.2 | 58% | 24.1 | 63% | 61 | 26 | 11 | 23 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 46% |