Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, with both sides averaging a single goal conceded per match. The model favours a home win, assigning 40% to Gjilani, 33% to a draw and 27% to Dukagjini. The expected total of 2.0 goals points to a tight game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.7% chance. Gjilani’s home form shows 1.29 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Dukagjini’s away numbers sit at 0.75 scored and 1.0 conceded. The suggested pick is Under 3.5 with an 84.8% probability. The model’s selection list includes only this under-goal outcome. The match is projected to be low-scoring, with both teams having kept recent unbeaten runs, each ending their last five with a 2-2 draw. The final score of 1-0 confirms the home side’s edge, matching the model’s prediction.
Results analysis
The model’s forecast proved spot on as Gjilani secured a 1-0 win, extending their unbeaten run in the last five matches. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 40% probability and the model’s pick was correct. The suggested selection Under 3.5, with an 84.8% chance, also hit. The final score of 1-0 matched the actual result, confirming the home advantage and the low-scoring nature predicted. Gjilani’s recent form, highlighted by five consecutive matches without defeat, and Dukagjini’s similar unbeaten streak, set the stage for a tight contest that the model captured accurately.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gjilani win✓ Hit
40.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini win✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gjilani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.20
1.29
1.00
0.75
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.20
1.29
1.00
0.75
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dukagjini
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.85
1.15
1.14
1.29
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.22
1.40
1.40
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
15% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Gjilani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
62.1%
Under 1.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.7%
Under 2.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.2%
Under 3.5
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.9%
No
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
14.2%
1-0 ✓
13.5%
0-1
10.2%
2-0
8.5%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
5.2%
Gjilani goals ↓
Dukagjini goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
10%
5.2%
1.6%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.0%
1.8%
0.4%
2
8.5%
7.7%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
3
3.3%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gjilani goals (down), columns = Dukagjini goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ballkani
2.03
Drita
1.94
Gjilani
1.50
Dukagjini
1.39
Prishtina
1.33
Malisheva
1.28
Llapi
1.19
Ferizaj
1.14
Trepça'89
1.11
Liria Prizren
1.00
Drenica Skënderaj
0.64
Gjilani is 0.11 points better than Dukagjini in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Drita
1.75
Ballkani
1.72
Malisheva
1.44
Prishtina
1.28
Trepça'89
1.28
Llapi
1.22
Dukagjini
1.14
Gjilani
0.94
Ferizaj
0.84
Drenica Skënderaj
0.75
Liria Prizren
0.00
Gjilani is 0.19 goals worse than Dukagjini in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.00
Drita
0.86
Ballkani
0.89
Gjilani
0.94
Prishtina
1.00
Dukagjini
1.03
Ferizaj
1.35
Llapi
1.39
Malisheva
1.44
Trepça'89
1.72
Drenica Skënderaj
1.72
Gjilani is 0.08 goals better than Dukagjini in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gjilani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
0.43
0.50
0.17
0.25
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.43
0.50
0.17
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
71% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dukagjini
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.75
0.50
0.83
0.17
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.88
0.75
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
42% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Gjilani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gjilani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gjilani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gjilani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gjilani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.71
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.71
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dukagjini
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Gjilani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gjilani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gjilani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gjilani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (24)
€8m
BAL (26)
€7m
PRI (24)
€6m
MAL (19)
€5m
LLA (28)
€5m
GJI (16)
€4m
DUK (20)
€3m
DS (8)
€1m
Gjilani's squad is €1m more valuable than Dukagjini's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PRI (10)
€4m
DRI (8)
€3m
BAL (7)
€3m
LLA (9)
€2m
GJI (6)
€2m
MAL (6)
€2m
DUK (7)
€2m
DS (5)
€0m
Gjilani and Dukagjini have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (8)
€2m
DRI (5)
€2m
MAL (4)
€1m
LLA (7)
€1m
GJI (3)
€1m
PRI (3)
€1m
DUK (5)
€1m
DS (1)
€0m
Gjilani and Dukagjini have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (11)
€3m
PRI (11)
€2m
BAL (11)
€2m
MAL (9)
€2m
LLA (12)
€2m
GJI (7)
€2m
DUK (8)
€1m
DS (2)
€0m
Gjilani and Dukagjini have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Kosovo: Superliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →