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Gjilani vs Dukagjini Result & Analysis

Date: 03/05/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 2-0
Gjilani
Gjilani
Vs
39%
33%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dukagjini
Dukagjini
Kosovo: Superliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The defensive numbers hint at a tight affair, with both sides averaging just under a goal per game against similarly matched opponents. The model favours a home win, assigning a 39% chance to Gjilani, 33% to a draw and 28% to Dukagjini. The expected total is 2.0 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% probability. Gjilani, playing at home, scores an average of 0.93 goals and concedes 0.93 against similar opposition, while Dukagjini, on the road, posts 0.91 scored and 0.91 conceded. The model’s selection is Under 3.5, with an 85.2% chance of hitting that target. Both teams have been unbeaten in their last five matches, each ending a 2-2 draw with the other, underscoring the low-scoring nature of this encounter.

Results analysis

The model’s prediction proved accurate as Gjilani secured a 2-0 home win, extending their unbeaten run of five matches. The pre-match favourite was Home win with a 39% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The most likely total was 2 goals, with a 28% chance, and the scoreline matched the 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 probabilities. The model’s selection Under 3.5 hit, with an 85.2% probability. All other suggested picks were settled, and the final result confirmed the favoured outcome. The match reinforced Gjilani’s strong form at home and the model’s confidence in the predicted outcome.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gjilani win✓ Hit
38.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GjilaniGjilani

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W00D01L22D02L02L20W10W00DH·TRE26/02A·DUK04/03H·PRI09/03A·DRI12/03H·LLA19/03A·BAL01/04A·FER09/04A·MAL15/04H·DRE23/04A·TRE30/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.970.930.930.811.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.870.970.930.930.811.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DukagjiniDukagjini

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L21W20W12L31W21W00D11D11DA·BAL26/02H·GJI04/03A·MAL08/03H·DRE11/03A·TRE19/03H·FER02/04A·PRI09/04H·DRI16/04A·LLA23/04H·BAL30/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.971.270.730.801.20
vs Stronger (8)0.501.380.500.750.502.00
vs Similar (22)1.230.821.550.730.910.91
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Gjilani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.6%
Under 1.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.2%
Under 2.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.8%
Under 3.5
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.6%
No
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
14.5%
1-0
13.4%
0-1
10.6%
2-0 ✓
8.2%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
5.4%
Gjilani goals ↓
Dukagjini goals →
01234
014%11%5.4%1.7%0.4%
113%15%6.1%1.9%0.4%
28.2%7.5%3.4%1.0%0.2%
33.1%2.8%1.3%0.4%0.1%
40.9%0.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gjilani goals (down), columns = Dukagjini goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ballkani
2.03
Drita
1.94
Gjilani
1.50
Dukagjini
1.39
Prishtina
1.33
Malisheva
1.28
Llapi
1.19
Ferizaj
1.14
Trepça'89
1.11
Liria Prizren
1.00
Drenica Skënderaj
0.64
Gjilani is 0.11 points better than Dukagjini in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Drita
1.75
Ballkani
1.72
Malisheva
1.44
Prishtina
1.28
Trepça'89
1.28
Llapi
1.22
Dukagjini
1.14
Gjilani
0.94
Ferizaj
0.84
Drenica Skënderaj
0.75
Liria Prizren
0.00
Gjilani is 0.19 goals worse than Dukagjini in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.00
Drita
0.86
Ballkani
0.89
Gjilani
0.94
Prishtina
1.00
Dukagjini
1.03
Ferizaj
1.35
Llapi
1.39
Malisheva
1.44
Trepça'89
1.72
Drenica Skënderaj
1.72
Gjilani is 0.08 goals better than Dukagjini in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GjilaniGjilani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D01L11D01L01L20W00D00DH·TRE26/02A·DUK04/03H·PRI09/03A·DRI12/03H·LLA19/03A·BAL01/04A·FER09/04A·MAL15/04H·DRE23/04A·TRE30/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.470.290.290.380.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.330.470.290.290.380.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DukagjiniDukagjini

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L10W01L10W01L11D11D00D11D00DH·LLA23/02A·BAL26/02H·GJI04/03A·MAL08/03A·TRE19/03H·FER02/04A·PRI09/04H·DRI16/04A·LLA23/04H·BAL30/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.570.460.620.400.53
vs Stronger (8)0.120.380.000.250.250.50
vs Similar (20)0.550.650.670.780.450.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Gjilani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gjilani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gjilani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gjilani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GjilaniGjilani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W00D00D00D11D01L01L00D10W00DH·TRE26/02A·DUK04/03H·PRI09/03A·DRI12/03H·LLA19/03A·BAL01/04A·FER09/04A·MAL15/04H·DRE23/04A·TRE30/04
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.500.640.640.440.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.530.500.640.640.440.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DukagjiniDukagjini

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D11D11D20W10W00D00D11DH·LLA23/02A·BAL26/02H·GJI04/03A·MAL08/03A·TRE19/03H·FER02/04A·PRI09/04H·DRI16/04A·LLA23/04H·BAL30/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.460.770.230.400.67
vs Stronger (8)0.381.000.500.500.251.50
vs Similar (20)0.650.250.890.110.450.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %64% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Gjilani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gjilani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gjilani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gjilani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.585.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (24)
€8m
BAL (26)
€7m
PRI (24)
€6m
MAL (19)
€5m
LLA (28)
€5m
GJI (16)
€4m
DUK (20)
€3m
DS (8)
€1m
Gjilani's squad is €1m more valuable than Dukagjini's (€4m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PRI (10)
€4m
DRI (8)
€3m
BAL (7)
€3m
LLA (9)
€2m
GJI (6)
€2m
MAL (6)
€2m
DUK (7)
€2m
DS (5)
€0m
Gjilani and Dukagjini have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (8)
€2m
DRI (5)
€2m
MAL (4)
€1m
LLA (7)
€1m
GJI (3)
€1m
PRI (3)
€1m
DUK (5)
€1m
DS (1)
€0m
Gjilani and Dukagjini have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (11)
€3m
PRI (11)
€2m
BAL (11)
€2m
MAL (9)
€2m
LLA (12)
€2m
GJI (7)
€2m
DUK (8)
€1m
DS (2)
€0m
Gjilani and Dukagjini have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
3
GJI wins
0
Draws
0
DUK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gjilani vs Dukagjini · H/A from GJI
DateH/AGameScore
04/03/23ADukagjini Vs GJI0-1
30/10/22HGJI Vs Dukagjini1-0
04/09/22ADukagjini Vs GJI0-1

GjilaniGjilani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/04/23ATrepça'89 Vs GJI0-0
23/04/23HGJI Vs Drenica Skënderaj1-0
15/04/23AMalisheva Vs GJI0-2
09/04/23AFerizaj Vs GJI2-0
01/04/23ABallkani Vs GJI2-0
19/03/23HGJI Vs Llapi2-2
12/03/23ADrita Vs GJI1-0
09/03/23HGJI Vs Prishtina0-0
04/03/23ADukagjini Vs GJI0-1
26/02/23HGJI Vs Trepça'891-0

DukagjiniDukagjini

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/04/23HDUK Vs Ballkani1-1
23/04/23ALlapi Vs DUK1-1
16/04/23HDUK Vs Drita0-0
09/04/23APrishtina Vs DUK1-2
02/04/23HDUK Vs Ferizaj3-1
19/03/23ATrepça'89 Vs DUK2-1
11/03/23HDUK Vs Drenica Skënderaj2-0
08/03/23AMalisheva Vs DUK1-2
04/03/23HDUK Vs Gjilani0-1
26/02/23ABallkani Vs DUK1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gjilani
Gjilani
Kosovo: Superliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.52
HomeDWDDW1.69
AwayLLLWD1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%44%35%
AVG goals1.972.001.94
Over 1.5 %55%50%59%
Over 2.5 %27%31%24%
Over 3.5 %21%25%18%
Scored0.941.060.82
Conceded1.030.941.12
BTTS36%38%35%
Clean Sheet42%44%41%
Corners8.008.008.00
Cards6.004.008.00
Dukagjini
Dukagjini
Kosovo: Superliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDD1.32
HomeLWWDD1.38
AwayDWLWD1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%38%33%
AVG goals2.032.062.00
Over 1.5 %55%56%53%
Over 2.5 %32%31%33%
Over 3.5 %13%19%7%
Scored1.031.250.80
Conceded1.000.811.20
BTTS45%44%47%
Clean Sheet29%31%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BallkaniBallkani3673
56%
2.0
6232+30
2.6
78%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.70.9
-
2DritaDrita3670
56%
1.9
6331+32
2.6
72%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3231.80.9
-
3GjilaniGjilani3654
36%
1.5
3434+0
1.9
56%
25%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2120.90.9
-
4DukagjiniDukagjini3650
39%
1.4
4137+4
2.2
58%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.11.0
-
5PrishtinaPrishtina3648
33%
1.3
4636+10
2.3
67%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
4121.31.0
-
6MalishevaMalisheva3646
33%
1.3
5252+0
2.9
72%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.4
-
7LlapiLlapi3643
31%
1.2
4450-6
2.6
69%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.4
-
8FerizajFerizaj3742
27%
1.1
3150-19
2.2
68%
41%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.4
-
9TrepçaTrepça'893640
28%
1.1
4662-16
3.0
72%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
10Drenica SkënderajDrenica Skënderaj3623
17%
0.6
2762-35
2.5
64%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.7
-
11Liria PrizrenLiria Prizren11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Kosovo: Superliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →

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