PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Glenavon FC vs H&W Welders Prediction & Stats

Date: 16/10/2026
Time: 18:45
Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Vs
46%
25%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Glenavon FC, riding a win after a 3-1 victory over Rathfriland, will face H&W Welders, who are on a three-game winning streak with a 2-0 win against Dundela. The model favours a home win, with a 47% chance, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of an away win. The expected total goals hover at 3.2, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.2% probability. Glenavon’s home form shows 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against similar opposition, while H&W Welders’ away form shows 0.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.3%), Under 6.5 (95.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Under 5.5 (89.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.5%), Home +2 handicap (87.3%), Home over 0.5 goals (84.1%), and Over 1.5 (84.1%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Glenavon FC win
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders win
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D00D01L23L13L41W41W22D31WH·POR04/04A·BAL07/04A·BAN11/04H·CRU18/04H·CAR25/04H·ARD08/08A·NEW11/08H·STR15/08A·ARM22/08H·RAT28/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.771.621.561.502.00
vs Stronger (11)1.182.551.292.001.003.50
vs Similar (17)1.711.291.751.251.671.33
vs Weaker (2)2.501.503.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L00D02L42W40W30W12L10W21W20WH·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08H·ARM15/08A·STR22/08H·DUN28/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.331.202.561.192.071.21
vs Stronger (17)2.291.352.111.112.501.62
vs Similar (7)1.141.711.502.250.671.00
vs Weaker (6)3.830.175.330.002.330.33
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.9%
Under 1.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.0%
Under 2.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.7%
Under 3.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.8%
No
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.1%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
0-0
5.1%
Glenavon FC goals ↓
H&W Welders goals →
01234
05.1%4.6%3.9%1.8%0.6%
16.4%11%7.1%3.3%1.1%
26.7%9.3%6.4%3.0%1.0%
34.0%5.6%3.9%1.8%0.6%
41.8%2.5%1.8%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Glenavon FC goals (down), columns = H&W Welders goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Glenavon FC is 0.40 points worse than H&W Welders in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Glenavon FC is 1.00 goals better than H&W Welders in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 1.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Glenavon FC is 1.00 goals worse than H&W Welders in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 0.60).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Glenavon FC or Draw
71.4%
Avg Implied -
46%
25%
29%
covers Glenavon FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC or H&W Welders
75.1%
Avg Implied -
46%
25%
29%
covers Glenavon FC + H&W Welders
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or H&W Welders
53.5%
Avg Implied -
46%
25%
29%
covers Draw + H&W Welders
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5
Over
83.6%
Under
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 3.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5
Over
75.1%
Under
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5
Over
40.4%
Under
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Glenavon FC, so a minus line means Glenavon FC give that many goals of a start and H&W Welders receive them. At -1, Glenavon FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Glenavon FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Glenavon FC)
Glenavon FC -2
11.6%
Draw -2
14.4%
H&W Welders +2
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Glenavon FC)
Glenavon FC -1
26.0%
Draw -1
20.5%
H&W Welders +1
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Glenavon FC)
Glenavon FC +1
71.4%
Draw +1
15.5%
H&W Welders -1
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Glenavon FC)
Glenavon FC +2
86.9%
Draw +2
8.5%
H&W Welders -2
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D00D10W01L11D21W11D20WH·POR04/04A·BAL07/04A·BAN11/04H·CRU18/04H·CAR25/04H·ARD08/08A·NEW11/08H·STR15/08A·ARM22/08H·RAT28/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.750.560.501.00
vs Stronger (11)0.550.820.430.570.751.25
vs Similar (17)0.590.760.880.620.330.89
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D01L11D30W10W12L00D10W00DH·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08H·ARM15/08A·STR22/08H·DUN28/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.701.310.621.070.79
vs Stronger (17)1.350.761.220.441.501.12
vs Similar (7)0.711.001.001.500.330.33
vs Weaker (6)1.330.172.000.000.670.33
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W00D01L13L12L30W20W11D11DH·POR04/04A·BAL07/04A·BAN11/04H·CRU18/04H·CAR25/04H·ARD08/08A·NEW11/08H·STR15/08A·ARM22/08H·RAT28/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.000.881.001.001.00
vs Stronger (11)0.641.730.861.430.252.25
vs Similar (17)1.120.530.880.621.330.44
vs Weaker (2)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D01L31W10W20W00D10W11D20WH·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08H·ARM15/08A·STR22/08H·DUN28/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.501.250.561.000.43
vs Stronger (17)0.940.590.890.671.000.50
vs Similar (7)0.430.710.500.750.330.67
vs Weaker (6)2.500.003.330.001.670.00
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.3%-------
Under 6.595.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals94.8%-------
Under 5.589.5%-------
Home under 3.5 goals89.0%-------
Home +2 handicap86.9%-------
Over 1.583.9%-------
Home over 0.5 goals83.6%-------
Away under 2.5 goals83.6%-------
Under 4.578.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals75.1%-------
Home or Away75.1%-------
Away +2 handicap74.0%-------
Home under 2.5 goals72.8%-------
Home or Draw71.4%-------
Home +1 handicap71.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
Glenavon FC and H&W Welders have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
Glenavon FC and H&W Welders have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Glenavon FC and H&W Welders have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
Glenavon FC and H&W Welders have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
GF wins
0
Draws
0
HW wins

Head-to-head

Glenavon FC vs H&W Welders · H/A from GF
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HGF Vs Rathfriland3-1
22/08/26AArmagh City Vs GF2-2
15/08/26HGF Vs Strabane Athletic4-1
11/08/26ANewry City AFC Vs GF1-4
08/08/26HGF Vs Ards1-3
25/04/26HGF Vs Carrick Rangers2-3
18/04/26HGF Vs Crusaders FC0-1
11/04/26ABangor Vs GF0-0
07/04/26ABallymena United Vs GF1-1
04/04/26HGF Vs Portadown1-1

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HHW Vs Dundela2-0
22/08/26AStrabane Athletic Vs HW1-2
15/08/26HHW Vs Armagh City1-0
11/08/26AQueen's University Vs HW2-1
08/08/26HHW Vs Warrenpoint Town3-0
24/04/26HHW Vs Annagh United4-0
18/04/26ANewington Youth Vs HW2-4
11/04/26ALoughgall Vs HW2-0
03/04/26ALimavady United Vs HW0-0
28/03/26HHW Vs Queen's University2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW0.90
HomeLLLWW1.12
AwayWDDWD0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%36%16%
AVG goals2.842.722.96
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %56%60%52%
Over 3.5 %32%24%40%
Scored1.161.201.12
Conceded1.681.521.84
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet12%12%12%
Corners---
Cards---
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.74
HomeLWWWW1.84
AwayDLWLW1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%56%48%
AVG goals3.523.523.52
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %74%72%76%
Over 3.5 %40%40%40%
Scored2.222.322.12
Conceded1.301.201.40
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches