Glenavon FC are favoured to win, with a 46% chance of triumph, 29% for a draw and 25% for Loughgall. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, and the most likely total is 2, making a 1-1 scoreline the single most probable outcome at 13.6%. Glenavon, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Loughgall, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Under 5.5 (95.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.2%), Home +2 handicap (90.1%) and Under 4.5 (88.9%). Glenavon have just come off a win, while Loughgall remain unbeaten in their last five.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Glenavon FC win
46.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Loughgall win
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Glenavon FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.77
1.62
1.56
1.50
2.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
2.55
1.29
2.00
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (17)
1.71
1.29
1.75
1.25
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
3.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loughgall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.00
1.71
1.06
1.00
0.92
vs Stronger (6)
2.00
0.67
2.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.12
1.25
1.25
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
1.00
1.60
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.9%
Under 2.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
10.7%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
9.1%
2-0
8.8%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.7%
Glenavon FC goals ↓
Loughgall goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
7.2%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.1%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.3%
4.5%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Glenavon FC goals (down), columns = Loughgall goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Glenavon FC is 0.20 points better than Loughgall in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Glenavon FC is 0.80 goals better than Loughgall in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Glenavon FC is 0.20 goals worse than Loughgall in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Glenavon FC or Draw
74.6%
Avg Implied -
46%
29%
25%
covers Glenavon FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC or Loughgall
71.4%
Avg Implied -
46%
29%
25%
covers Glenavon FC + Loughgall
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Loughgall
54.0%
Avg Implied -
46%
29%
25%
covers Draw + Loughgall
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5
Over
77.1%
Under
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 0.5
Over
64.6%
Under
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Glenavon FC, so a minus line means Glenavon FC give that many goals of a start and Loughgall receive them. At -1, Glenavon FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Glenavon FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Glenavon FC)
Glenavon FC -2
9.2%
Draw -2
14.3%
Loughgall +2
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Glenavon FC)
Glenavon FC -1
23.5%
Draw -1
22.5%
Loughgall +1
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Glenavon FC)
Glenavon FC +1
74.6%
Draw +1
15.5%
Loughgall -1
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Glenavon FC)
Glenavon FC +2
90.1%
Draw +2
7.1%
Loughgall -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Glenavon FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.75
0.56
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.82
0.43
0.57
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.76
0.88
0.62
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loughgall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.59
0.41
0.54
0.54
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.17
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.71
0.50
0.62
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.14
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Glenavon FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.00
0.88
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.73
0.86
1.43
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (17)
1.12
0.53
0.88
0.62
1.33
0.44
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loughgall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.12
0.65
0.46
0.38
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.41
0.75
0.62
0.44
0.22
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
Glenavon FC and Loughgall have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
Glenavon FC and Loughgall have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Glenavon FC and Loughgall have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
Glenavon FC and Loughgall have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Newington Youth
H&W Welders
Queen's University
Annagh United
Newry City AFC
Ards
Warrenpoint Town
Moyola Park
Ballinamallard United
Institute
Dundela
Strabane Athletic
Armagh City
Rathfriland