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Glenavon FC vs Newington Youth Prediction & Stats

Date: 19/09/2026
Time: 14:00
Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Vs
53%
23%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Glenavon FC are tipped to edge Newington Youth in a high-scoring encounter, with the model assigning a 51 % chance to a home win, 23 % to a draw and 26 % to an away victory. The average goal tally is 3.4, suggesting a lively match, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 10.1 % chance. Glenavon’s home form against stronger opposition shows they average 1.25 goals for and 2.0 against, while Newington Youth, playing away against weaker teams, average 2.14 goals for and 2.0 against. The model’s selections reinforce the expectation of plenty of firepower: Under 7.5 (97.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.6 %), Under 6.5 (94.0 %), Home +2 handicap (88.4 %), Home over 0.5 goals (86.9 %), Under 5.5 (86.7 %), Over 1.5 (86.6 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (85.2 %). Glenavon’s recent draw and Newington’s two-game winning run add extra intrigue to the fixture.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Glenavon FC win
53.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth win
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D00D01L23L13L41W41W22D31WH·POR04/04A·BAL07/04A·BAN11/04H·CRU18/04H·CAR25/04H·ARD08/08A·NEW11/08H·STR15/08A·ARM22/08H·RAT28/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.771.621.561.502.00
vs Stronger (11)1.182.551.292.001.003.50
vs Similar (17)1.711.291.751.251.671.33
vs Weaker (2)2.501.503.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W20W15L24L21W41W22D21W40W21WH·ANN27/03A·QUE04/04H·LIM11/04H·H&W18/04H·LOU24/04H·ANN08/08A·LOU11/08H·QUE15/08H·RAT22/08A·STR28/08
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.231.632.331.392.082.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.951.752.001.541.862.14
vs Weaker (10)2.801.403.201.002.401.80
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.7%
Under 2.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.1%
Under 3.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.7%
No
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
1-2
6.1%
1-0
5.5%
3-0
4.8%
Glenavon FC goals ↓
Newington Youth goals →
01234
03.9%3.3%2.9%1.3%0.5%
15.5%9.8%6.1%2.8%1.0%
26.8%9.4%6.5%3.0%1.0%
34.8%6.6%4.5%2.1%0.7%
42.5%3.5%2.4%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Glenavon FC goals (down), columns = Newington Youth goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Glenavon FC is 0.60 points worse than Newington Youth in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.60).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Glenavon FC and Newington Youth are level in goals scored per game (both 2.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Glenavon FC is 0.60 goals worse than Newington Youth in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Glenavon FC or Draw
76.0%
Avg Implied -
53%
23%
24%
covers Glenavon FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC or Newington Youth
77.3%
Avg Implied -
53%
23%
24%
covers Glenavon FC + Newington Youth
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Newington Youth
46.8%
Avg Implied -
53%
23%
24%
covers Draw + Newington Youth
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5
Over
87.8%
Under
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5
Over
62.2%
Under
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5
Over
35.2%
Under
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 3.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5
Over
74.9%
Under
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5
Over
40.2%
Under
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Glenavon FC, so a minus line means Glenavon FC give that many goals of a start and Newington Youth receive them. At -1, Glenavon FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Glenavon FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Glenavon FC)
Glenavon FC -2
16.2%
Draw -2
16.3%
Newington Youth +2
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Glenavon FC)
Glenavon FC -1
32.5%
Draw -1
20.7%
Newington Youth +1
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Glenavon FC)
Glenavon FC +1
76.0%
Draw +1
13.3%
Newington Youth -1
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Glenavon FC)
Glenavon FC +2
89.3%
Draw +2
7.0%
Newington Youth -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D00D10W01L11D21W11D20WH·POR04/04A·BAL07/04A·BAN11/04H·CRU18/04H·CAR25/04H·ARD08/08A·NEW11/08H·STR15/08A·ARM22/08H·RAT28/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.750.560.501.00
vs Stronger (11)0.550.820.430.570.751.25
vs Similar (17)0.590.760.880.620.330.89
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D12L11D11D21W21W20W30W11DH·ANN27/03A·QUE04/04H·LIM11/04H·H&W18/04H·LOU24/04H·ANN08/08A·LOU11/08H·QUE15/08H·RAT22/08A·STR28/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.771.390.670.580.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.900.801.080.770.570.86
vs Weaker (10)1.400.702.200.400.601.00
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W00D01L13L12L30W20W11D11DH·POR04/04A·BAL07/04A·BAN11/04H·CRU18/04H·CAR25/04H·ARD08/08A·NEW11/08H·STR15/08A·ARM22/08H·RAT28/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.000.881.001.001.00
vs Stronger (11)0.641.730.861.430.252.25
vs Similar (17)1.120.530.880.621.330.44
vs Weaker (2)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W03L13L10W20W01L01L10W10WH·ANN27/03A·QUE04/04H·LIM11/04H·H&W18/04H·LOU24/04H·ANN08/08A·LOU11/08H·QUE15/08H·RAT22/08A·STR28/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.870.940.721.501.08
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.050.950.920.771.291.29
vs Weaker (10)1.400.701.000.601.800.80
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals94.8%-------
Under 6.593.5%-------
Home +2 handicap89.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals87.8%-------
Over 1.587.2%-------
Under 5.585.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals83.8%-------
Home under 3.5 goals83.7%-------
Home or Away77.3%-------
Home or Draw76.0%-------
Home +1 handicap76.0%-------
Away over 0.5 goals74.9%-------
Under 4.572.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
GF wins
0
Draws
0
NY wins

Head-to-head

Glenavon FC vs Newington Youth · H/A from GF
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HGF Vs Rathfriland3-1
22/08/26AArmagh City Vs GF2-2
15/08/26HGF Vs Strabane Athletic4-1
11/08/26ANewry City AFC Vs GF1-4
08/08/26HGF Vs Ards1-3
25/04/26HGF Vs Carrick Rangers2-3
18/04/26HGF Vs Crusaders FC0-1
11/04/26ABangor Vs GF0-0
07/04/26ABallymena United Vs GF1-1
04/04/26HGF Vs Portadown1-1

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AStrabane Athletic Vs NY1-2
22/08/26HNY Vs Rathfriland4-0
15/08/26HNY Vs Queen's University2-1
11/08/26ALoughgall Vs NY2-2
08/08/26HNY Vs Annagh United4-1
24/04/26HNY Vs Loughgall2-1
18/04/26HNY Vs H&W Welders2-4
11/04/26HNY Vs Limavady United1-5
04/04/26AQueen's University Vs NY0-2
27/03/26HNY Vs Annagh United1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW0.90
HomeLLLWW1.12
AwayWDDWD0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%36%16%
AVG goals2.842.722.96
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %56%60%52%
Over 3.5 %32%24%40%
Scored1.161.201.12
Conceded1.681.521.84
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet12%12%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.80
HomeLWWWW2.23
AwayLWWDW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%73%33%
AVG goals3.803.813.79
Over 1.5 %90%96%83%
Over 2.5 %78%77%79%
Over 3.5 %54%54%54%
Scored2.222.422.00
Conceded1.581.381.79
BTTS68%58%79%
Clean Sheet28%38%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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