This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.73
1.93
1.36
1.62
2.06
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
3.50
2.00
1.50
0.00
5.50
vs Similar (24)
1.88
1.42
1.91
1.36
1.85
1.46
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.7%
Under 1.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.8%
Under 2.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.4%
Under 3.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.3%
No
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.5%
1-1
9.1%
0-2
7.5%
1-3 â
7.2%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.7%
0-3
5.7%
2-1
5.3%
Gnistan goals ↓
Ilves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
5.7%
7.5%
5.7%
3.3%
1
2.8%
9.1%
9.5%
7.2%
4.1%
2
2.3%
5.3%
6.0%
4.6%
2.6%
3
1.0%
2.2%
2.5%
1.9%
1.1%
4
0.3%
0.7%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gnistan goals (down), columns = Ilves goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Turku PS
3.00
KuPS
2.09
Inter Turku
1.91
Ilves
1.88
SJK
1.84
HJK Helsinki
1.53
FF Jaro
1.26
Mariehamn
1.19
VPS
1.15
Gnistan
1.03
AC Oulu
1.00
Kooteepee
0.72
Haka
0.63
Gnistan is 0.84 points worse than Ilves in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.88).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turku PS
3.00
HJK Helsinki
2.31
SJK
2.19
Ilves
2.12
KuPS
1.94
Inter Turku
1.88
Gnistan
1.47
VPS
1.37
FF Jaro
1.30
AC Oulu
1.30
Mariehamn
1.26
Kooteepee
1.14
Haka
1.11
Gnistan is 0.66 goals worse than Ilves in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 2.12).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Turku PS
1.00
Inter Turku
1.03
KuPS
1.06
Ilves
1.41
VPS
1.56
SJK
1.59
HJK Helsinki
1.62
FF Jaro
1.63
Haka
1.85
Mariehamn
1.96
AC Oulu
1.96
Gnistan
2.03
Kooteepee
2.31
Gnistan is 0.62 goals worse than Ilves in terms of goals conceded per game (2.03 vs 1.41).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
HJK Helsinki
58%
Ilves
54%
KuPS
53%
VPS
50%
Kooteepee
50%
Inter Turku
50%
SJK
49%
AC Oulu
49%
FF Jaro
49%
Mariehamn
48%
Gnistan
44%
Haka
44%
Turku PS
37%
Gnistan is 10.2 percentage points worse than Ilves in terms of average possession (44% vs 54%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Gnistan
For 6.5 · Against 7.0 · Total 13.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 9.4 · Total 21.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ilves
For 6.5 · Against 6.2 · Total 12.7
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 12.4 · Total 20.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gnistan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
13.2
11.8
14.8
1.0
1.3
0.8
21.7
22.7
20.6
vs Stronger (10)
11.3
9.5
15.0
1.0
1.8
0.5
16.7
18.5
13.0
vs Similar (38)
13.9
13.0
14.8
1.1
1.3
0.9
23.6
24.8
22.5
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
91%
83%
100%
16%
21%
12%
55%
50%
60%
% under line
9%
17%
0%
84%
79%
88%
45%
50%
40%
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.1
13.2
11.4
1.2
1.0
1.4
21.0
21.4
20.8
vs Stronger (8)
10.8
12.5
9.0
2.8
2.5
3.0
22.5
21.5
23.5
vs Similar (38)
12.7
13.7
12.2
1.0
0.8
1.1
20.3
21.3
19.8
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
85%
80%
88%
16%
12%
20%
54%
60%
50%
% under line
15%
20%
12%
84%
88%
80%
46%
40%
50%
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
13.1
FF Jaro
11.7
Kooteepee
11.5
Haka
11.2
SJK
10.8
AC Oulu
10.5
Ilves
10.4
Mariehamn
10.4
KuPS
10.1
VPS
10.0
HJK Helsinki
10.0
Inter Turku
9.9
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gnistan
4.7
Kooteepee
4.6
Haka
4.3
Inter Turku
4.2
Mariehamn
4.1
AC Oulu
4.1
KuPS
4.1
SJK
4.0
Ilves
3.9
VPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.5
HJK Helsinki
3.2
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ilves
24.4
SJK
23.8
Inter Turku
23.8
KuPS
23.5
Mariehamn
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Haka
22.2
VPS
22.2
Kooteepee
22.0
HJK Helsinki
21.9
Gnistan
21.6
FF Jaro
17.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
74.8%
Under 9.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
49.1%
Under 3.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
37.0%
Under 21.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gnistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.53
0.60
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.50
0.58
0.50
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.71
0.29
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
1.00
0.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.29
0.73
0.27
0.69
0.31
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gnistan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gnistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.13
1.00
1.20
1.27
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
1.38
1.25
0.67
2.33
1.80
0.60
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.09
1.08
0.92
1.00
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.20
1.21
1.07
1.06
1.31
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.12
1.18
1.09
1.15
1.15
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gnistan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 9.5 corners
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Gnistan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rachide Gnanou33%
Vertti HÃĪnninen25%
Saku Heiskanen20%
Evgeny Bashkirov18%
Tim VÃĪyrynen17%
Artur Atarah17%
Joakim Latonen15%
Matias Ritari14%
Edmund Arko-Mensah11%
Gabriel Europaeus10%
Didrik Hafstad9%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Anicet Oura0%
Oskar Lyberopoulos0%
Oliver GÞnes0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Oludare Olufunwa0%
Lucas von Hellens0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edmund Arko-Mensah56%
Lucas von Hellens50%
Rachide Gnanou50%
Roman Eremenko25%
Oludare Olufunwa25%
Gabriel Europaeus20%
Alexandro Craninx18%
Didrik Hafstad18%
Artur Atarah17%
Matias Ritari14%
Jukka Raitala11%
Armend Kabashi11%
Saku Heiskanen10%
Juhani Ojala9%
Evgeny Bashkirov9%
Tim VÃĪyrynen8%
Joakim Latonen8%
Oliver Pettersson8%
Anicet Oura0%
Oskar Lyberopoulos0%
Vertti HÃĪnninen0%
Oliver GÞnes0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Saku Heiskanen50%
Roman Eremenko25%
Anicet Oura25%
Vertti HÃĪnninen25%
Oliver GÞnes17%
Matias Ritari14%
Didrik Hafstad9%
Tim VÃĪyrynen8%
Artur Atarah8%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Evgeny Bashkirov0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Oskar Lyberopoulos0%
Edmund Arko-Mensah0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Oludare Olufunwa0%
Lucas von Hellens0%
Gabriel Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Roman Eremenko25%
Joakim Latonen15%
Tim VÃĪyrynen8%
Rachide Gnanou8%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Evgeny Bashkirov0%
Saku Heiskanen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Anicet Oura0%
Oskar Lyberopoulos0%
Edmund Arko-Mensah0%
Vertti HÃĪnninen0%
Oliver GÞnes0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Oludare Olufunwa0%
Lucas von Hellens0%
Matias Ritari0%
Didrik Hafstad0%
Artur Atarah0%
Gabriel Europaeus0%
Ilves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Roope Riski33%
Teemu HytÃķnen29%
Jardell Kanga23%
Jesse Kilo20%
Tatu Miettunen18%
Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi18%
Joona Veteli17%
Oiva Jukkola17%
Marius SÃķderbÃĪck15%
Anton Popovitch8%
Maksim Stjopin8%
Matias Rale8%
Sauli VÃĪisÃĪnen0%
Otso Virtanen0%
Aapo MÃĪenpÃĪÃĪ0%
Faris KrkaliÄ0%
Kalle Wallius0%
AndrÃĐ Raymond0%
Vincent Ulundu0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sauli VÃĪisÃĪnen30%
Anton Popovitch25%
Faris KrkaliÄ17%
Oiva Jukkola17%
Matias Rale15%
Jardell Kanga15%
Otso Virtanen12%
Tatu Miettunen9%
Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi9%
Roope Riski8%
Joona Veteli8%
Aapo MÃĪenpÃĪÃĪ0%
Maksim Stjopin0%
Kalle Wallius0%
Teemu HytÃķnen0%
AndrÃĐ Raymond0%
Marius SÃķderbÃĪck0%
Jesse Kilo0%
Vincent Ulundu0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marius SÃķderbÃĪck31%
Vincent Ulundu20%
Roope Riski17%
Maksim Stjopin17%
Matias Rale15%
Jardell Kanga15%
AndrÃĐ Raymond14%
Sauli VÃĪisÃĪnen10%
Joona Veteli8%
Oiva Jukkola8%
Tatu Miettunen0%
Otso Virtanen0%
Aapo MÃĪenpÃĪÃĪ0%
Anton Popovitch0%
Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi0%
Faris KrkaliÄ0%
Kalle Wallius0%
Teemu HytÃķnen0%
Jesse Kilo0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jesse Kilo20%
Roope Riski17%
Anton Popovitch8%
Joona Veteli8%
Oiva Jukkola8%
Sauli VÃĪisÃĪnen0%
Tatu Miettunen0%
Otso Virtanen0%
Aapo MÃĪenpÃĪÃĪ0%
Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi0%
Matias Rale0%
Faris KrkaliÄ0%
Maksim Stjopin0%
Kalle Wallius0%
Teemu HytÃķnen0%
AndrÃĐ Raymond0%
Jardell Kanga0%
Marius SÃķderbÃĪck0%
Vincent Ulundu0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
Gnistan's squad is €1m less valuable than Ilves's (€3m vs €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KOO (10)
€1m
HAK (7)
€0m
Gnistan and Ilves have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
HAK (5)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
Gnistan and Ilves have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
Gnistan and Ilves have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
SJK
HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro
Mariehamn
VPS
AC Oulu
Kooteepee
Haka
Turku PS