Gnistan and Ilves are set to clash in a high-scoring match, with the expected total goals standing at 3.7. The most likely total number of goals is 3, suggesting a closely contested encounter. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 9.3%.
Gnistan have struggled to find consistency at home, scoring 0.71 goals per game against stronger opponents, while conceding 2.14 goals. Ilves, on the other hand, have been more effective away from home, scoring 1.67 goals against weaker opponents, while conceding 2.67 goals.
The model predicts a home win, with a 38% chance of Gnistan emerging victorious, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 38% chance of an away win. The model's selection is the home win. The model's selections are Over 1.5 with a 89.3% chance, BTTS Yes with a 72% chance, Over 2.5 with a 71.6% chance, and Under 21.5 fouls with a 71.1% chance. Gnistan have a 38% chance of winning, a 23% chance of drawing, and a 38% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Gnistan’s 2-game winning run carried into the match, while Ilves were still recovering from a double-defeat streak. The model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, with a 39 % probability, proved correct as Gnistan triumphed 3-2. The predicted most likely total of 3 goals came true, and the model’s selections were largely accurate. Over 1.5 goals hit with an 89.3 % chance, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 88.3 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 88.2 %, Home over 0.5 goals hit with 84.4 %, and Away over 0.5 goals hit at 84.3 %. The favoured result and the majority of the model’s picks were fulfilled.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gnistan win✓ Hit
38.5%
Avg Implied 38.1% · @ 2.43
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.55
Dafabet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.42
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.50
Edge
-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.67
Dafabet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.55
1xBet
3.55
Ilves win✗ Miss
38.2%
Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.62
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
Dafabet
2.70
1xBet
2.65
Betano
2.65
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gnistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.67
1.64
2.07
1.31
1.31
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.00
0.50
2.50
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (23)
1.65
1.57
2.10
1.90
1.31
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.53
2.00
1.13
1.53
1.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.85
1.62
2.08
1.23
1.62
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.3%
@ 1.17+9.3%
Under 1.5
10.7%
@ 4.66-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Under
Pinnacle
5.02
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
888Sport
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.6%
@ 1.57+11.9%
Under 2.5
28.4%
@ 2.32-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.8%
@ 2.38+11.7%
Under 3.5
49.2%
@ 1.53-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.49
Betfair
2.45
Unibet
2.45
Betano
2.40
888Sport
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.55
Betfair
1.53
10Bet
1.53
888Sport
1.53
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
72.0%
@ 1.47+9.1%
No
28.0%
@ 2.48-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
No
BetVictor
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Betano
2.52
William Hil
2.50
888Sport
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.3%@ 6.54+2.5%
2-1
7.8%@ 8.64+2.7%
1-2
7.8%@ 8.95+2.9%
2-2
7.2%@ 9.94+2.8%
3-1
4.9%@ 15.14+1.9%
1-3
4.8%@ 16.88+2.2%
3-2 ✓
4.5%@ 18.11+2.0%
2-3
4.5%@ 19.21+2.2%
Gnistan goals ↓
Ilves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
3.7%
4.2%
2.6%
1.2%
1
3.7%
9.3%
7.8%
4.8%
2.2%
2
4.2%
7.8%
7.2%
4.5%
2.1%
3
2.6%
4.9%
4.5%
2.8%
1.3%
4
1.2%
2.3%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gnistan goals (down), columns = Ilves goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
Gnistan is 0.50 points better than Ilves in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
Gnistan is 0.09 goals better than Ilves in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
Gnistan is 0.36 goals better than Ilves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Gnistan is 4.9 percentage points worse than Ilves in terms of average possession (44% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Gnistan
For 3.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ilves
For 3.7 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 9.9 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gnistan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
10.6
12.3
2.1
2.2
2.1
22.6
21.1
24.2
vs Stronger (10)
12.5
11.8
14.0
1.4
2.2
0.6
18.3
19.5
16.0
vs Similar (40)
11.1
10.2
12.0
2.3
2.2
2.5
23.8
21.8
25.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
64%
77%
30%
29%
31%
59%
50%
69%
% under line
30%
36%
23%
70%
71%
69%
41%
50%
31%
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.5
10.3
1.7
1.6
1.8
19.1
18.9
19.2
vs Stronger (6)
10.0
10.0
10.0
2.5
1.7
3.3
19.5
17.5
21.5
vs Similar (41)
10.6
10.6
10.6
1.6
1.8
1.5
18.9
19.2
18.7
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
-
9.0
1.3
0.0
4.0
20.0
-
20.0
% over line
52%
36%
67%
26%
20%
32%
43%
45%
42%
% under line
48%
64%
33%
74%
80%
68%
57%
55%
58%
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.6
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
Ilves
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
KuPS
9.9
HJK Helsinki
9.9
VPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.3
KuPS
3.3
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Inter Turku
23.4
Ilves
23.2
Lahti
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
KuPS
21.9
Mariehamn
21.9
Turku PS
21.8
HJK Helsinki
20.5
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
39.3%
@ 1.53-20.8%
Under 9.5
60.7%
@ 2.30+20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
Unibet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Under
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.34
Unibet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.23
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
34.4%
Under 3.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
27.6%
Under 21.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gnistan or Draw✓ Hit
61.8%
Avg Implied 64.4% · @ 1.45
Edge
-2.6%
39%
23%
38%
covers Gnistan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
888Sport
1.44
Gnistan or Ilves✓ Hit
76.7%
Avg Implied 73.8% · @ 1.26
Edge
+3.0%
39%
23%
38%
covers Gnistan + Ilves
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Draw or Ilves✗ Miss
61.5%
Avg Implied 61.8% · @ 1.51
Edge
-0.3%
39%
23%
38%
covers Draw + Ilves
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gnistan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.4%
@ 1.18+6.0%
Under
15.6%
@ 4.29-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Under
Pinnacle
4.57
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Gnistan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
55.4%
@ 1.96+7.8%
Under
44.6%
@ 1.78-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.05
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Gnistan over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
28.5%
@ 3.98+5.2%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.21-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.25
BetVictor
4.10
888Sport
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Gnistan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 9.15+1.6%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.04-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
10.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
8.30
Marathonbet
8.30
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Ilves over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.3%
@ 1.21+7.4%
Under
15.7%
@ 4.02-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.23
BetVictor
4.10
888Sport
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Ilves over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
55.2%
@ 2.06+9.8%
Under
44.8%
@ 1.71-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Unibet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Under
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Ilves over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
28.3%
@ 4.37+7.0%
Under
71.7%
@ 1.18-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Ilves over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 9.66+2.0%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.03-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
11.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.10
Marathonbet
9.10
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gnistan, so a minus line means Gnistan give that many goals of a start and Ilves receive them. At -1, Gnistan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gnistan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gnistan)Actual: Ilves
Gnistan -2
9.2%
@ 9.20-0.5%
Draw -2
11.7%
@ 6.80-1.4%
Ilves +2
79.0%
@ 1.16+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
Unibet
6.00
Away
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Gnistan)Actual: Draw
Gnistan -1
21.0%
@ 4.42+0.7%
Draw -1
17.6%
@ 4.30-3.2%
Ilves +1
61.5%
@ 1.52+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
Unibet
4.10
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
3.95
Away
Unibet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Handicap +1 (Gnistan)Actual: Gnistan
Gnistan +1
61.8%
@ 1.45-0.1%
Draw +1
17.5%
@ 4.45-2.7%
Ilves -1
20.7%
@ 4.99+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Unibet
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Away
Unibet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Handicap +2 (Gnistan)Actual: Gnistan
Gnistan +2
79.3%
@ 1.13+0.1%
Draw +2
11.6%
@ 7.43-0.5%
Ilves -2
9.1%
@ 10.27+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
Away
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
9.30
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gnistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.57
0.86
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.29
0.25
1.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.52
0.70
0.60
0.69
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
1.20
0.53
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.96
1.23
0.62
0.62
1.31
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gnistan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gnistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.97
1.07
1.21
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.25
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.96
1.04
1.40
1.30
0.62
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.80
0.60
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.65
0.85
0.62
1.00
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gnistan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.3%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
88.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.4%
1.18
Betano
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
84.3%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
-
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.0%
1.16
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.7%
1.26
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
72.0%
1.47
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
71.7%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
-7.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
71.6%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.57
+11.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
71.5%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-5.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Gnistan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adeleke Akinyemi60%
Joakim Latonen25%
D. Pérez0%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Edmund Arko-Mensah0%
V. Hänninen0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Otto Hannula40%
Alexandro Craninx33%
V. Hänninen33%
Adeleke Akinyemi20%
Edmund Arko-Mensah20%
G. Europaeus20%
D. Pérez0%
Ayo Obileye0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
V. Hänninen33%
D. Pérez20%
Edmund Arko-Mensah20%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Adeleke Akinyemi0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Pérez20%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Adeleke Akinyemi0%
Edmund Arko-Mensah0%
V. Hänninen0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
Ilves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Hytönen43%
J. Kanga43%
R. Riski33%
J. Veteli25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
Otto Tiitinen17%
Oliver Pettersson12%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
K. Wallius0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Wallius33%
Y. Raap29%
T. Miettunen25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
R. Riski17%
J. Kanga14%
A. Popovitch12%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
T. Hytönen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Kilo50%
J. Kanga29%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
Maksim Stjopin0%
K. Wallius0%
T. Hytönen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Hytönen29%
Maksim Stjopin20%
J. Kanga14%
J. Kilo12%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
K. Wallius0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Gnistan's squad is €1m less valuable than Ilves's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Gnistan and Ilves have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
Gnistan and Ilves have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Gnistan and Ilves have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
VPS
Lahti
Turku PS
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn