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Gnistan vs KuPS Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 0-1
Gnistan
Gnistan
Vs
23%
24%
53%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
KuPS
KuPS
Finland: Veikkausliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

This match between Gnistan and KuPS is shaping up to be a closely contested affair, with KuPS coming off a recent draw against Turku PS. The model's selection is the away win, with a 53% probability, while Gnistan has a 23% chance of taking the three points and a 24% chance of a draw. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring at a probability of 11.4%. KuPS has a strong away form, scoring 1.5 goals on average and conceding just 0.6, while Gnistan struggles at home, scoring 0.75 goals and conceding 1.88. The model's selection of KuPS to win away has a 53% probability, while Gnistan's home win percentage is 23%, the draw percentage is 24%, and KuPS's away win percentage is 53%. The model also suggests the selection of Over 1.5, with an 82.2% probability and a 4% edge.

Results analysis

The win extends Gnistan's run of mixed results, but the actual storyline was dominated by the goals, with a total well clear of the model's expected 3.1. The final score was 0-1, a result that reflected the actual outcome of the match. The model's call of an Away win was correct, as KuPS secured the victory. The model's selection, Away win, had a pre-match probability of 53%. The model's selection was correct, but other suggested picks did not come to fruition. KuPS's Away win was a notable upset, and the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 82.2%, missed the mark, as the actual total was 1 goal.

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Gnistan win✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied 29.9% · @ 3.08
Edge
-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.25
Dafabet
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Unibet
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.55
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.84
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
Dafabet
3.65
William Hil
3.60
KuPS win✓ Hit
53.0%
Avg Implied 44.0% · @ 2.10
Edge
+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.16
1xBet
2.14
Dafabet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.12
Unibet
2.12

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

GnistanGnistan

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L32W30W10W11D11D01L42W20W21WA·ILV23/05H·SJK30/05A·MAR13/06H·LAH17/06A·FF 23/06H·VPS27/06A·LAH04/07H·MAR11/07A·AC 18/07A·INT26/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.701.692.001.211.36
vs Stronger (14)1.071.930.832.331.251.62
vs Similar (14)1.571.572.001.780.801.20
vs Weaker (2)3.501.004.002.003.000.00
Clean sheet %20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (KuPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuPSKuPS

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W21W11D11D21W43W40W20W31W02LH·FF 20/05H·LAH23/05H·INT30/05A·VPS13/06A·TUR17/06H·ILV23/06A·HJK27/06A·SJK18/07H·VPS25/07H·SAB28/07
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.971.751.121.360.79
vs Stronger (3)1.001.331.501.500.001.00
vs Similar (9)1.330.781.001.001.600.60
vs Weaker (18)1.781.002.101.101.380.88
Clean sheet %30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.2%
@ 1.19+4.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
@ 4.23-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.63
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.3%
@ 1.66+2.9%
Under 2.5
40.7%
@ 2.15-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.19
Bet365
2.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.0%
@ 2.62+1.6%
Under 3.5
63.0%
@ 1.44-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Betano
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.9%
@ 1.57+0.9%
No
40.1%
@ 2.26-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
No
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
BetVictor
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Betfair
2.25

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%@ 6.44+4.5%
1-2
9.8%@ 7.79+4.1%
0-2
8.3%@ 10.43+4.1%
0-1 ✓
7.7%@ 8.45+2.5%
1-3
6.2%@ 13.49+2.9%
2-1
6.1%@ 9.96+1.7%
2-2
5.8%@ 11.18+1.8%
0-0
5.7%@ 12.20+2.0%
Gnistan goals ↓
KuPS goals →
01234
05.7%7.7%8.3%5.2%2.5%
14.4%11%9.8%6.2%2.9%
23.2%6.1%5.8%3.6%1.7%
31.3%2.4%2.3%1.4%0.7%
40.4%0.7%0.7%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gnistan goals (down), columns = KuPS goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
KuPS
2.11
Inter Turku
1.84
HJK Helsinki
1.63
AC Oulu
1.58
Gnistan
1.53
VPS
1.50
Turku PS
1.45
Lahti
1.37
Ilves
1.32
SJK
0.90
FF Jaro
0.79
Mariehamn
0.40
Gnistan is 0.58 points worse than KuPS in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 2.11).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.79
Ilves
1.63
HJK Helsinki
1.53
Gnistan
1.53
VPS
1.40
Turku PS
1.35
Inter Turku
1.32
SJK
1.20
Lahti
1.16
AC Oulu
1.16
FF Jaro
0.95
Mariehamn
0.55
Gnistan is 0.26 goals worse than KuPS in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.79).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.74
Lahti
0.84
KuPS
0.89
VPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.10
AC Oulu
1.16
HJK Helsinki
1.21
Gnistan
1.26
SJK
1.55
Ilves
1.63
FF Jaro
2.00
Mariehamn
2.05
Gnistan is 0.37 goals worse than KuPS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 0.89).

⏱ïļ Possession

Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Gnistan is 12.9 percentage points worse than KuPS in terms of average possession (44% vs 57%).

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

GnistanGnistan

For 3.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

13031023662631029454348101351281311971210A·LAHH·VPSA·FF H·LAHA·MARH·SJKA·ILVH·FF A·VPSH·INT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60124133133224112223056456242A·LAHH·VPSA·FF H·LAHA·MARH·SJKA·ILVH·FF A·VPSH·INT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.3

⚠ïļ Fouls

30015101714121710141514151911814914862582627292930222314A·LAHH·VPSA·FF H·LAHA·MARH·SJKA·ILVH·FF A·VPSH·INT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

KuPSKuPS

For 4.8 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

1301411441029143639434165281210791377H·VPSA·HJKH·ILVA·VPSA·MARH·AC A·FF H·GNIA·ILVA·LEC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 0.9 · Total 1.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

80211153111122128201012H·VPSA·HJKH·ILVA·VPSA·MARH·AC A·FF H·GNIA·ILVA·LEC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 10.7 · Total 20.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

300111631814131713141378118115611102742230272019191121H·VPSA·HJKH·ILVA·VPSA·MARH·AC A·FF H·GNIA·ILVA·LEC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

GnistanGnistan

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.410.612.32.12.22.122.621.124.2
vs Stronger (22)12.511.413.61.81.32.221.918.425.4
vs Similar (24)10.410.210.72.53.21.822.622.722.5
vs Weaker (4)14.0-14.02.00.04.026.0-26.0
% over line70%64%77%30%29%31%59%50%69%
% under line30%36%23%70%71%69%41%50%31%
This opponent (KuPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuPSKuPS

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.58.910.01.71.51.819.419.819.1
vs Stronger (7)8.48.78.02.93.52.019.017.721.0
vs Similar (12)9.68.710.21.41.31.516.919.315.0
vs Weaker (31)9.89.110.31.51.11.920.520.920.3
% over line41%31%50%20%20%20%31%38%25%
% under line59%69%50%80%80%80%69%62%75%
This opponent (Gnistan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.5
Mariehamn
10.4
SJK
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
Ilves
9.9
KuPS
9.9
HJK Helsinki
9.9
VPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
SJK
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
KuPS
3.3
FF Jaro
3.3
HJK Helsinki
3.0

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Ilves
23.5
Lahti
23.1
Inter Turku
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
Mariehamn
22.0
KuPS
21.7
Turku PS
21.6
HJK Helsinki
20.7
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
39.4%
@ 1.61-18.0%
Under 9.5
60.6%
@ 2.16+18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Unibet
1.57
Under
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
Unibet
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
31.5%
Under 3.5
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
29.8%
Under 21.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸ”Ĩ 6. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.2%1.19
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
+4.2%✗ Miss
Under 21.5 fouls70.2%--------

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (26)
€6m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (22)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (21)
€2m
MAR (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (6)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
ILV (4)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (11)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Gnistan vs KuPS · H/A from GNI
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26AKuPS Vs GNI1-0
30/10/25AKuPS Vs GNI1-1
27/09/25HGNI Vs KuPS0-4
01/07/25AKuPS Vs GNI6-2
27/04/25HGNI Vs KuPS1-2
07/07/24AKuPS Vs GNI3-1
19/05/24HGNI Vs KuPS0-0

GnistanGnistan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26AInter Turku Vs GNI1-2
18/07/26AAC Oulu Vs GNI0-2
11/07/26HGNI Vs Mariehamn4-2
04/07/26ALahti Vs GNI1-0
27/06/26HGNI Vs VPS1-1
23/06/26AFF Jaro Vs GNI1-1
17/06/26HGNI Vs Lahti1-0
13/06/26AMariehamn Vs GNI0-3
30/05/26HGNI Vs SJK3-2
23/05/26AIlves Vs GNI2-0

KuPSKuPS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/07/26HKUP Vs Sabah FA0-2
25/07/26HKUP Vs VPS3-1
18/07/26ASJK Vs KUP0-2
27/06/26AHJK Helsinki Vs KUP0-4
23/06/26HKUP Vs Ilves4-3
17/06/26ATurku PS Vs KUP1-2
13/06/26AVPS Vs KUP1-1
30/05/26HKUP Vs Inter Turku1-1
23/05/26HKUP Vs Lahti2-1
20/05/26HKUP Vs FF Jaro3-0

📊 9. Overall Statistics

Gnistan
Gnistan
Finland: Veikkausliiga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWW1.24
HomeWWWDW1.33
AwayWDLWW1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%27%
AVG goals3.323.543.12
Over 1.5 %86%92%81%
Over 2.5 %60%67%54%
Over 3.5 %42%50%35%
Scored1.541.671.42
Conceded1.781.881.69
BTTS60%58%62%
Clean Sheet22%25%19%
Corners11.4410.6412.31
Cards3.963.714.23
KuPS
KuPS
Finland: Veikkausliiga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.86
HomeWDWWL2.04
AwayDDWWW1.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%60%44%
AVG goals2.642.922.36
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %44%48%40%
Over 3.5 %30%36%24%
Scored1.581.721.44
Conceded1.061.200.92
BTTS52%60%44%
Clean Sheet32%28%36%
Corners9.528.9210.00
Cards2.712.712.71

🏆 10. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KuPSKuPS1940
58%
2.1
3417+17
2.7
84%
42%
26%
8.1
33%
1.9
11%
19.9
44%
0
0001.80.9
57%
2Inter TurkuInter Turku1935
47%
1.8
2514+11
2.1
68%
32%
16%
10.7
67%
2.3
14%
19.7
57%
5
2121.30.7
58%
3HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki1931
47%
1.6
2923+6
2.7
68%
53%
26%
7.0
14%
3.0
43%
18.4
43%
6
2131.51.2
55%
4VPSVPS2030
40%
1.5
2821+7
2.5
65%
45%
30%
7.1
30%
3.4
50%
21.8
70%
0
0001.41.1
48%
5AC OuluAC Oulu1930
47%
1.6
2222+0
2.3
58%
37%
16%
9.5
38%
3.8
62%
22.6
50%
4
1111.21.2
48%
6GnistanGnistan1929
42%
1.5
2924+5
2.8
79%
42%
26%
10.1
57%
3.6
50%
24.2
71%
3
1111.51.3
44%
7Turku PSTurku PS2029
40%
1.4
2722+5
2.5
70%
50%
25%
7.7
40%
3.9
60%
20.3
60%
0
0001.41.1
50%
8LahtiLahti1926
37%
1.4
2216+6
2.0
63%
26%
11%
8.3
50%
3.8
60%
22.6
80%
2
1011.20.8
56%
9IlvesIlves1925
37%
1.3
3131+0
3.3
79%
63%
53%
8.1
11%
3.0
56%
18.0
44%
4
1121.61.6
49%
10SJKSJK2018
20%
0.9
2431-7
2.8
85%
55%
30%
9.0
57%
3.9
57%
20.4
57%
4
1121.21.6
50%
11FF JaroFF Jaro1915
16%
0.8
1838-20
2.9
84%
58%
32%
8.4
30%
3.1
40%
19.2
50%
2
1110.92.0
47%
12MariehamnMariehamn208
5%
0.4
1141-30
2.6
85%
45%
20%
10.5
70%
3.0
64%
21.3
64%
2
1110.62.0
45%
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →

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