The model predicts an away win for KuPS, with a 54% chance of victory, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 21% chance of a Gnistan win. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.1% probability. Gnistan, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.67 goals scored and concedes 2.0, while KuPS, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.22 goals scored and concedes only 0.67. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6% with a 6% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.9% with a 7% edge, Under 6.5 at 97.5% with a 7% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1% with a 6% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.0% with a 4% edge, Under 5.5 cards at 93.5%, and Under 5.5 at 93.3% with a 5% edge.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gnistan win
20.7%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.49
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.63
Dafabet
3.60
William Hil
3.60
Draw
25.4%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.63
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.77
Betfair
3.75
1xBet
3.72
Marathonbet
3.72
Dafabet
3.70
KuPS win
53.9%
Avg Implied 47.9% · @ 1.94
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.08
Dafabet
1.99
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.92
William Hil
1.91
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gnistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.53
1.93
1.86
1.38
1.25
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
1.71
0.67
2.00
1.75
1.50
vs Similar (23)
1.74
1.48
2.27
1.82
1.25
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (KuPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KuPS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.97
1.53
1.13
1.47
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.15
1.29
1.29
1.83
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.47
0.82
1.75
1.00
1.22
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.4%
@ 1.16-1.1%
Under 1.5
21.6%
@ 4.52+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.19
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Under
Pinnacle
4.75
1xBet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Betano
4.35
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.7%
@ 1.60-5.0%
Under 2.5
46.3%
@ 2.27+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.32
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.4%
@ 2.44-6.5%
Under 3.5
68.6%
@ 1.49+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
Unibet
2.48
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.39
Marathonbet
2.39
Under
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Unibet
1.45
Both teams to score
Yes
54.9%
@ 1.52-6.0%
No
45.1%
@ 2.36+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Unibet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
No
Betano
2.40
Betfair
2.38
William Hil
2.38
1xBet
2.37
Marathonbet
2.33
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 6.72+5.5%
1-2
9.8%@ 7.56+4.0%
0-1
9.5%@ 8.64+4.4%
0-2
9.5%@ 9.91+5.0%
0-0
7.0%@ 12.99+3.6%
1-3
5.9%@ 12.29+2.3%
2-1
5.7%@ 10.61+1.5%
0-3
5.7%@ 15.61+2.8%
Gnistan goals ↓
KuPS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
9.5%
9.5%
5.7%
2.5%
1
5.0%
12%
9.8%
5.9%
2.6%
2
3.2%
5.7%
5.1%
3.0%
1.4%
3
1.1%
2.0%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gnistan goals (down), columns = KuPS goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
Gnistan is 0.32 points worse than KuPS in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.95).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
Gnistan is 0.09 goals worse than KuPS in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
Gnistan is 0.27 goals worse than KuPS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Gnistan is 12.9 percentage points worse than KuPS in terms of average possession (44% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Gnistan
For 3.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
KuPS
For 4.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 7.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gnistan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
10.6
12.3
2.1
2.1
2.2
22.6
21.1
24.2
vs Stronger (10)
12.5
11.8
14.0
1.4
2.2
0.6
18.3
19.5
16.0
vs Similar (40)
11.1
10.2
12.0
2.3
2.0
2.6
23.8
21.8
25.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
64%
77%
30%
28%
32%
59%
50%
69%
% under line
30%
36%
23%
70%
72%
68%
41%
50%
31%
This opponent (KuPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KuPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.4
9.5
1.3
1.4
1.2
20.6
21.5
19.6
vs Stronger (4)
8.2
7.5
9.0
3.2
3.5
3.0
20.8
19.0
22.5
vs Similar (24)
9.0
8.6
9.5
1.2
1.7
0.8
19.4
22.0
16.3
vs Weaker (22)
9.1
8.5
9.6
1.0
0.6
1.5
22.2
22.0
22.4
% over line
35%
23%
46%
14%
16%
12%
46%
54%
38%
% under line
65%
77%
54%
86%
84%
88%
54%
46%
62%
This opponent (Gnistan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.6
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
Ilves
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
9.9
VPS
9.8
KuPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.3
KuPS
3.2
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Ilves
23.2
Inter Turku
23.2
Lahti
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
KuPS
22.0
Mariehamn
21.9
Turku PS
21.8
HJK Helsinki
20.5
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
37.7%
@ 1.55-21.5%
Under 9.5
62.3%
@ 2.25+21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.55
Under
Unibet
2.25
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
31.8%
Under 21.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gnistan or Draw
46.1%
Avg Implied 51.1% · @ 1.82
Edge
-5.0%
21%
25%
54%
covers Gnistan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.93
Marathonbet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Gnistan or KuPS
74.6%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.23
Edge
-0.8%
21%
25%
54%
covers Gnistan + KuPS
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Draw or KuPS
79.3%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.27
Edge
+5.8%
21%
25%
54%
covers Draw + KuPS
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gnistan over/under 0.5
Over
64.5%
@ 1.29-6.8%
Under
35.5%
@ 3.22+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.33
Unibet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
Gnistan over/under 1.5
Over
27.8%
@ 2.50-9.5%
Under
72.2%
@ 1.49+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.64
1xBet
2.58
Marathonbet
2.58
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Gnistan over/under 2.5
Over
8.7%
@ 6.05-6.7%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.10+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
Betfair
6.00
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Gnistan over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
@ 10.00-7.2%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.03+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
KuPS over/under 0.5
Over
83.3%
@ 1.14+2.2%
Under
16.7%
@ 4.85-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Under
1xBet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Betano
4.90
Unibet
4.50
KuPS over/under 1.5
Over
53.4%
@ 1.75-0.1%
Under
46.6%
@ 2.01+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
Betfair
2.00
KuPS over/under 2.5
Over
26.6%
@ 3.32-1.2%
Under
73.4%
@ 1.28+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.50
Pinnacle
3.35
Marathonbet
3.32
1xBet
3.32
Betfair
3.25
Under
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
KuPS over/under 3.5
Over
10.7%
@ 7.15-2.2%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.06+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.40
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gnistan, so a minus line means Gnistan give that many goals of a start and KuPS receive them. At -1, Gnistan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gnistan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gnistan)
Gnistan -2
2.2%
Draw -2
5.7%
KuPS +2
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gnistan)
Gnistan -1
7.9%
@ 6.90-5.0%
Draw -1
12.8%
@ 5.15-4.5%
KuPS +1
79.3%
@ 1.28+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
7.70
Unibet
6.10
Draw
Marathonbet
5.60
Unibet
4.70
Away
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
Handicap +1 (Gnistan)
Gnistan +1
46.1%
@ 1.76-4.4%
Draw +1
22.9%
@ 3.85-0.2%
KuPS -1
31.0%
@ 3.37+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.85
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.70
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Unibet
3.70
Away
Unibet
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.20
Handicap +2 (Gnistan)
Gnistan +2
69.0%
@ 1.25-2.2%
Draw +2
16.9%
@ 5.58+1.0%
KuPS -2
14.1%
@ 6.85+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Draw
Marathonbet
5.75
Unibet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Away
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gnistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.71
0.86
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.29
0.33
1.33
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.57
0.82
0.73
0.75
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (KuPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KuPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.93
0.47
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.23
0.86
0.29
0.83
0.17
vs Weaker (17)
0.82
0.59
1.00
0.62
0.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.1%
@ 1.28-0.5%
Under 0.5
27.9%
@ 3.38+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.50
William Hil
3.50
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Betano
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.5%
@ 2.32-3.6%
Under 1.5
63.5%
@ 1.55+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.34
1xBet
2.34
William Hil
2.30
Under
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
1xBet
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 5.28-5.0%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.12+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.45
Betano
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Under
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gnistan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.2%
@ 2.14-2.2%
Under
58.8%
@ 1.64+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.22
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Unibet
2.02
Under
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Gnistan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.0%
@ 7.13-3.0%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.07+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.20
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
Gnistan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
@ 12.50-6.1%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
KuPS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.6%
@ 1.70-3.9%
Under
49.4%
@ 2.04+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.02
Betano
2.02
Unibet
1.97
KuPS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.7%
@ 4.47-5.1%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.17+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.40
1xBet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
KuPS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.0%
@ 10.00-4.3%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.03+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gnistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.21
1.00
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.43
0.33
0.67
1.50
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.91
1.45
1.09
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (KuPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KuPS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.67
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.92
0.43
1.00
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (17)
0.65
0.24
0.75
0.38
0.56
0.11
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.0%
@ 1.15-0.5%
Under 0.5
20.0%
@ 4.76+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Under
Betano
4.85
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
William Hil
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.5%
@ 1.81-5.1%
Under 1.5
53.5%
@ 1.93+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Unibet
1.81
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
William Hil
1.91
Unibet
1.86
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.8%
@ 3.46-7.0%
Under 2.5
80.2%
@ 1.26+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.60
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Betano
3.25
Under
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gnistan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.7%
@ 1.80-2.7%
Under
51.3%
@ 1.91+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.81
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Gnistan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.5%
@ 5.07-4.8%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.14+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.30
Betano
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Gnistan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
@ 10.00-6.4%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.03+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
KuPS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.1%
@ 1.47-7.3%
Under
43.9%
@ 2.54+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Under
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.50
KuPS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.7%
@ 3.19-6.4%
Under
77.3%
@ 1.31+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.26
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.10
Under
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
KuPS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.7%
@ 7.90-5.0%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.05+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.04
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.2%
Under 6.5
97.5%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.3%
Under 5.5 cards
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.3%
1.04
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+5.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
+5.0%
Away +2 handicap
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.3%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
+6.7%
Under 25.5 fouls
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.07
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
+3.0%
Away under 3.5 goals
89.3%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+2.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.12
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+5.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.5%
1.14
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
+4.8%
Under 4.5 cards
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.4%
1.17
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+5.7%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.3%
1.17
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
+5.1%
Away over 0.5 goals
83.3%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
-
+2.2%
Under 23.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.26
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
-
+7.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.15
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-0.5%
Draw or Away
79.3%
1.27
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+5.8%
Away +1 handicap
79.3%
1.28
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
-
-
-
+9.6%
Over 1.5
78.4%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.19
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-1.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.31
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
-
-
+6.4%
Home or Away
74.6%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
-0.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
73.4%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
+1.2%
Home under 1.5 goals
72.2%
1.49
Betano
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
+9.5%
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.1%
1.28
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
-0.5%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Gnistan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adeleke Akinyemi60%
Joakim Latonen25%
D. Pérez0%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Edmund Arko-Mensah0%
V. Hänninen0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Otto Hannula40%
Alexandro Craninx33%
V. Hänninen33%
Adeleke Akinyemi20%
Edmund Arko-Mensah20%
G. Europaeus20%
D. Pérez0%
Ayo Obileye0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
V. Hänninen33%
D. Pérez20%
Edmund Arko-Mensah20%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Adeleke Akinyemi0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Pérez20%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Adeleke Akinyemi0%
Edmund Arko-Mensah0%
V. Hänninen0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
KuPS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jaime Moreno83%
Bob Nii Armah43%
P. Pennanen29%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba25%
Gustav Engvall22%
Otto Ruoppi12%
V. Gasc11%
Kasim Adams0%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Clinton Antwi0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Savolainen0%
S. Heiskanen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Arttu Lötjönen0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
A. Puukko0%
Brahima Magassa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
V. Gasc33%
Arttu Lötjönen25%
A. Puukko25%
Jaime Moreno17%
S. Heiskanen17%
Kasim Adams14%
Clinton Antwi11%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Gustav Engvall0%
P. Pennanen0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Savolainen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba0%
Otto Ruoppi0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
Bob Nii Armah0%
Brahima Magassa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
A. Puukko25%
P. Pennanen14%
S. Savolainen14%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba12%
Otto Ruoppi12%
Gustav Engvall11%
Clinton Antwi11%
Kasim Adams0%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Jaime Moreno0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Heiskanen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Arttu Lötjönen0%
V. Gasc0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
Bob Nii Armah0%
Brahima Magassa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jaime Moreno67%
Bob Nii Armah57%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba12%
Gustav Engvall11%
V. Gasc11%
Kasim Adams0%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Clinton Antwi0%
P. Pennanen0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Savolainen0%
S. Heiskanen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Arttu Lötjönen0%
Otto Ruoppi0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
A. Puukko0%
Brahima Magassa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Gnistan's squad is €4m less valuable than KuPS's (€3m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Gnistan and KuPS have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
Gnistan's midfield is €2m less valuable than KuPS's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Gnistan's defence is €2m less valuable than KuPS's (€1m vs €3m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
VPS
Lahti
Turku PS
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn