Gnistan’s recent five matches, highlighted by a two-game winning streak, give the model a 51% chance of a home win, while a draw sits at 24% and Turku PS a 25% chance of victory. The prediction favours a 1-1 draw as the single most likely scoreline, with a 10.7% probability, even though the model expects an average of 3.3 goals and a 22% chance that the total will be exactly three. Gnistan averages 2.4 goals scored and 1.9 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Turku PS averages 0.92 goals scored and 1.31 conceded on the road. The model’s edge is strongest on the “Under 7.5” total-goals pick, with a 98.1% probability, and on the “Away under 2.5 HT goals” pick, where the edge is 5%. Other suggested selections include “Home under 2.5 HT goals” at 97.4% with an 8% edge, “Away under 2.5 2H goals” at 96.5% with a 6% edge, “Away under 3.5 goals” at 95.4% with a 2% edge, “Home under 2.5 2H goals” at 95.1% with an 8% edge, “Under 6.5” at 95.0% with a 2% edge, and “Under 25.5 fouls” at 91.8%.
Results analysis
The match ended in a 1-1 draw, a shock for the pre-match favourite, Gnistan, who were tipped to win with a 51% probability. The model’s call was wrong, as the game settled at a stalemate. Gnistan’s recent form, a draw in their last five, and Turku PS’s unbeaten run of five games both added to the uncertainty. The model’s selection of “Away under 2.5 HT goals” hit, as did “Under 7.5” and “Home under 2.5 HT goals,” all scoring at 98.5%, 98.1%, and 97.7% respectively. Additional picks such as “Away under 2.5 2H goals” (97.2%), “Away under 3.5 goals” (95.4%), “Under 6.5” (95.0%) and “Home under 2.5 2H goals” (94.9%) also hit, confirming the model’s strong performance on over-under markets.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gnistan win✗ Miss
51.1%
Avg Implied 48.2% · @ 1.92
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.98
Dafabet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Draw✓ Hit
23.9%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.74
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.00
Dafabet
3.85
1xBet
3.82
Marathonbet
3.82
Betfair
3.80
Turku PS win✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.42
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.70
Dafabet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.53
Superbet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gnistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.63
1.86
2.07
1.38
1.25
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.00
0.50
2.50
1.75
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.77
1.50
2.40
1.90
1.25
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Turku PS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turku PS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.07
1.80
0.87
1.00
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.33
1.11
1.71
0.93
0.92
1.31
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
3.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.9%
@ 1.15+4.2%
Under 1.5
15.1%
@ 4.84-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.50
Pinnacle
5.34
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Superbet
4.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.8%
@ 1.53+3.2%
Under 2.5
36.2%
@ 2.35-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Unibet
1.57
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.49
Betfair
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.7%
@ 2.35+1.8%
Under 3.5
58.3%
@ 1.56-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.45
Pinnacle
2.45
Unibet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Under
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.1%
@ 1.49+2.4%
No
35.9%
@ 2.41-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Superbet
1.50
William Hil
1.50
No
BetVictor
2.50
Betano
2.50
William Hil
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Superbet
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.7%@ 6.97+4.4%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.67+3.7%
2-0
7.2%@ 10.41+2.9%
1-2
6.5%@ 10.81+2.4%
1-0
6.3%@ 9.14+1.5%
2-2
6.3%@ 10.78+2.2%
3-1
6.2%@ 11.82+2.5%
0-0
4.7%@ 13.83+1.5%
Gnistan goals ↓
Turku PS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
4.0%
3.3%
1.5%
0.5%
1
6.3%
11%
6.5%
2.9%
1.0%
2
7.2%
9.5%
6.3%
2.8%
0.9%
3
4.7%
6.2%
4.1%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.3%
3.0%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gnistan goals (down), columns = Turku PS goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
Gnistan is 0.23 points better than Turku PS in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
Gnistan is 0.36 goals better than Turku PS in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
Gnistan is 0.27 goals worse than Turku PS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Gnistan is 5.2 percentage points worse than Turku PS in terms of average possession (44% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Gnistan
For 3.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Turku PS
For 4.6 · Against 3.1 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.6 · Against 11.7 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gnistan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
10.6
12.3
2.1
2.1
2.2
22.6
21.1
24.2
vs Stronger (10)
12.5
11.8
14.0
1.4
2.2
0.6
18.3
19.5
16.0
vs Similar (40)
11.1
10.2
12.0
2.3
2.0
2.6
23.8
21.8
25.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
64%
77%
30%
28%
32%
59%
50%
69%
% under line
30%
36%
23%
70%
72%
68%
41%
50%
31%
This opponent (Turku PS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turku PS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
9.8
7.6
0.9
0.8
1.1
21.8
25.2
19.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
8.2
10.3
7.2
1.1
0.9
1.4
21.2
25.7
19.0
vs Weaker (16)
9.0
8.0
10.0
0.5
0.6
0.4
24.5
24.0
25.0
% over line
45%
50%
43%
14%
12%
16%
64%
75%
57%
% under line
55%
50%
57%
86%
88%
84%
36%
25%
43%
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.6
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
Ilves
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
9.9
VPS
9.8
KuPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.3
KuPS
3.2
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Ilves
23.2
Inter Turku
23.2
Lahti
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
KuPS
22.0
Mariehamn
21.9
Turku PS
21.8
HJK Helsinki
20.5
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
Pinnacle
2.08
1xBet
2.03
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gnistan or Draw✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied 73.2% · @ 1.27
Edge
+1.8%
51%
24%
25%
covers Gnistan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Gnistan or Turku PS✗ Miss
76.1%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.23
Edge
+0.4%
51%
24%
25%
covers Gnistan + Turku PS
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Draw or Turku PS✓ Hit
48.9%
Avg Implied 51.1% · @ 1.83
Edge
-2.2%
51%
24%
25%
covers Draw + Turku PS
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.89
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gnistan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.9%
@ 1.13+3.7%
Under
14.1%
@ 5.20-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.25
10Bet
5.25
BetVictor
5.25
Gnistan over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
58.2%
@ 1.71+3.5%
Under
41.8%
@ 2.06-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.79
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Under
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Pinnacle
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Gnistan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.2%
@ 3.17+1.9%
Under
68.8%
@ 1.31-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.43
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.16
Under
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Gnistan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 6.67-0.4%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.08+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Turku PS over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.5%
@ 1.29+1.5%
Under
26.5%
@ 3.32-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.59
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Betano
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Turku PS over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.4%
@ 2.42-0.2%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.52+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Betfair
2.50
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Under
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Turku PS over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.0%
@ 5.52-1.9%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.12+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Turku PS over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 13.25-2.6%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gnistan, so a minus line means Gnistan give that many goals of a start and Turku PS receive them. At -1, Gnistan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gnistan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gnistan)Actual: Turku PS
Gnistan -2
14.3%
@ 6.23-0.0%
Draw -2
15.8%
@ 5.32-1.0%
Turku PS +2
69.9%
@ 1.29+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.10
Marathonbet
6.05
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Away
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.27
Handicap -1 (Gnistan)Actual: Turku PS
Gnistan -1
30.1%
@ 3.17+2.0%
Draw -1
21.0%
@ 3.79-2.4%
Turku PS +1
48.9%
@ 1.83+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Superbet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
Unibet
1.89
10Bet
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
Handicap +1 (Gnistan)Actual: Gnistan
Gnistan +1
75.0%
@ 1.27+4.9%
Draw +1
14.0%
@ 5.24-3.0%
Turku PS -1
11.0%
@ 6.87-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Superbet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Away
Unibet
7.50
Bet365
7.50
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Superbet
6.40
Handicap +2 (Gnistan)Actual: Gnistan
Gnistan +2
89.0%
@ 1.08+2.4%
Draw +2
7.3%
@ 11.00-1.2%
Turku PS -2
3.8%
@ 19.00-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Away
Bet365
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gnistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.71
1.00
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.38
0.25
1.50
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.59
0.90
0.80
0.75
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Turku PS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turku PS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.87
0.47
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.52
0.79
0.50
0.38
0.54
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
70.0%
@ 1.26-3.3%
Under 0.5
30.0%
@ 3.47+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
William Hil
3.70
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.6%
@ 2.25-8.8%
Under 1.5
67.4%
@ 1.59+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
Betano
2.32
Unibet
2.28
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Under
William Hil
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.6%
@ 4.96-5.1%
Under 2.5
86.4%
@ 1.14+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.90
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gnistan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
48.2%
@ 1.67-7.4%
Under
51.8%
@ 2.09+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
Unibet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Gnistan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.8%
@ 4.27-8.8%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.18+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.35
Betano
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Under
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Gnistan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 10.92-6.3%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Turku PS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.2%
@ 2.10+0.0%
Under
55.8%
@ 1.66-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Unibet
2.14
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Under
Pinnacle
1.70
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Turku PS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.2%
@ 6.46-5.1%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.08+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Turku PS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 20.00-3.3%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gnistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
1.14
1.07
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.62
0.25
1.00
1.50
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.91
1.50
1.10
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Turku PS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turku PS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.93
0.40
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.59
0.93
0.43
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.3%
@ 1.15-3.6%
Under 0.5
22.7%
@ 4.86+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betano
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Superbet
4.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.7%
@ 1.75-9.4%
Under 1.5
56.3%
@ 1.98+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Under
Betano
2.07
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.8%
@ 3.30-9.3%
Under 2.5
81.2%
@ 1.29+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
William Hil
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.22
Under
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gnistan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.2%
@ 1.45-9.9%
Under
45.8%
@ 2.57+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.45
10Bet
1.42
Under
10Bet
2.62
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Gnistan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.5%
@ 3.12-11.2%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.32+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Under
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Gnistan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 7.80-6.8%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.05+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Superbet
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Turku PS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.6%
@ 1.74-1.6%
Under
48.4%
@ 1.98+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.93
Turku PS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 4.64-4.4%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.16+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Superbet
4.65
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Turku PS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 12.25-4.8%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.8%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.5%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.05
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.18
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.14
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.9%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.0%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
1xBet
1.11
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.9%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.15
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.5%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.5%
1.32
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
+11.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.29
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
76.5%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+0.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
75.0%
1.27
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.0%
1.27
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.5%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.0%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-3.3%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Gnistan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adeleke Akinyemi60%
Joakim Latonen25%
D. Pérez0%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Edmund Arko-Mensah0%
V. Hänninen0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Otto Hannula40%
Alexandro Craninx33%
V. Hänninen33%
Adeleke Akinyemi20%
Edmund Arko-Mensah20%
G. Europaeus20%
D. Pérez0%
Ayo Obileye0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
V. Hänninen33%
D. Pérez20%
Edmund Arko-Mensah20%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Adeleke Akinyemi0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Pérez20%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Adeleke Akinyemi0%
Edmund Arko-Mensah0%
V. Hänninen0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
Turku PS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Albijon Muzaci50%
T. Tsirigotis33%
S. Anini33%
Pau Juvanteny14%
Luke Ivanovic0%
Atte Sihvonen0%
M. Hrádecký0%
L. Ikonen0%
M. Kauppila0%
Elmo Henriksson0%
Timo Zaal0%
O. Häggström0%
N. Talo0%
Marius Könkkölä0%
Tobias Karkulowski0%
Elmer Vauhkonen0%
E. Turkki0%
Oscar Haggstrom0%
Eetu Turkki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
S. Anini67%
Eetu Turkki67%
Oscar Haggstrom50%
Luke Ivanovic25%
Atte Sihvonen25%
L. Ikonen25%
Tobias Karkulowski17%
Pau Juvanteny14%
M. Hrádecký0%
T. Tsirigotis0%
M. Kauppila0%
Elmo Henriksson0%
Timo Zaal0%
O. Häggström0%
N. Talo0%
Marius Könkkölä0%
Elmer Vauhkonen0%
E. Turkki0%
Albijon Muzaci0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Eetu Turkki67%
N. Talo33%
E. Turkki33%
Luke Ivanovic25%
Tobias Karkulowski17%
Atte Sihvonen0%
M. Hrádecký0%
L. Ikonen0%
T. Tsirigotis0%
M. Kauppila0%
S. Anini0%
Pau Juvanteny0%
Elmo Henriksson0%
Timo Zaal0%
O. Häggström0%
Marius Könkkölä0%
Elmer Vauhkonen0%
Oscar Haggstrom0%
Albijon Muzaci0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
E. Turkki33%
Luke Ivanovic25%
Elmer Vauhkonen25%
Albijon Muzaci25%
Atte Sihvonen0%
M. Hrádecký0%
L. Ikonen0%
T. Tsirigotis0%
M. Kauppila0%
S. Anini0%
Pau Juvanteny0%
Elmo Henriksson0%
Timo Zaal0%
O. Häggström0%
N. Talo0%
Marius Könkkölä0%
Tobias Karkulowski0%
Oscar Haggstrom0%
Eetu Turkki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Gnistan and Turku PS have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Gnistan and Turku PS have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
Gnistan and Turku PS have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Gnistan and Turku PS have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
VPS
Lahti
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn