This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.57
0.79
1.43
2.56
1.69
vs Stronger (10)
1.90
1.50
0.75
1.75
2.67
1.33
vs Similar (18)
1.50
1.67
0.78
1.33
2.22
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
87.5%
Under 1.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.1%
Under 2.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.6%
Under 3.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.2%
No
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
7.1%
1-3
5.2%
0-2
5.1%
0-1
4.6%
2-3
4.3%
Gnistan goals ↓
VPS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
4.6%
5.1%
3.1%
1.4%
1
4.1%
10%
8.5%
5.2%
2.4%
2
4.2%
7.7%
7.1%
4.3%
2.0%
3
2.3%
4.3%
3.9%
2.4%
1.1%
4
1.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gnistan goals (down), columns = VPS goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Turku PS
3.00
KuPS
2.09
Inter Turku
1.91
Ilves
1.88
SJK
1.84
HJK Helsinki
1.53
FF Jaro
1.26
Mariehamn
1.19
VPS
1.15
Gnistan
1.03
AC Oulu
1.00
Kooteepee
0.72
Haka
0.63
Gnistan is 0.12 points worse than VPS in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turku PS
3.00
HJK Helsinki
2.31
SJK
2.19
Ilves
2.12
KuPS
1.94
Inter Turku
1.88
Gnistan
1.47
VPS
1.37
FF Jaro
1.30
AC Oulu
1.30
Mariehamn
1.26
Kooteepee
1.14
Haka
1.11
Gnistan is 0.10 goals better than VPS in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Turku PS
1.00
Inter Turku
1.03
KuPS
1.06
Ilves
1.41
VPS
1.56
SJK
1.59
HJK Helsinki
1.62
FF Jaro
1.63
Haka
1.85
Mariehamn
1.96
AC Oulu
1.96
Gnistan
2.03
Kooteepee
2.31
Gnistan is 0.48 goals worse than VPS in terms of goals conceded per game (2.03 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
HJK Helsinki
58%
Ilves
54%
KuPS
53%
VPS
50%
Kooteepee
50%
Inter Turku
50%
SJK
49%
AC Oulu
49%
FF Jaro
49%
Mariehamn
48%
Gnistan
44%
Haka
44%
Turku PS
37%
Gnistan is 6.3 percentage points worse than VPS in terms of average possession (44% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Gnistan
For 7.0 · Against 6.3 · Total 13.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 9.7 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VPS
For 6.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 8.8 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gnistan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
13.3
10.5
14.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
22.0
21.0
22.5
vs Stronger (11)
11.0
11.0
-
0.5
1.5
0.0
17.0
17.0
-
vs Similar (36)
13.8
10.0
14.8
0.8
0.5
0.9
23.0
25.0
22.5
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
10%
9%
11%
67%
50%
75%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
90%
91%
89%
33%
50%
25%
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.0
11.0
0.3
0.5
0.1
22.0
20.7
26.0
vs Stronger (15)
8.5
8.5
-
0.5
1.2
0.0
19.0
19.0
-
vs Similar (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
12.0
13.0
11.0
1.2
1.0
1.3
25.0
24.0
26.0
% over line
75%
67%
100%
4%
5%
4%
75%
67%
100%
% under line
25%
33%
0%
96%
95%
96%
25%
33%
0%
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
13.1
FF Jaro
12.5
Kooteepee
11.4
Haka
10.8
SJK
10.6
Mariehamn
10.5
Ilves
10.3
KuPS
10.0
AC Oulu
10.0
VPS
9.9
Inter Turku
9.8
HJK Helsinki
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gnistan
5.2
AC Oulu
4.8
Kooteepee
4.7
FF Jaro
4.5
Inter Turku
4.4
Mariehamn
4.4
Haka
4.4
KuPS
4.3
SJK
4.1
Ilves
3.9
VPS
3.7
HJK Helsinki
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ilves
24.5
Inter Turku
24.3
Mariehamn
24.1
KuPS
23.7
SJK
23.6
HJK Helsinki
22.8
Kooteepee
22.7
Haka
22.2
VPS
22.1
Gnistan
21.8
AC Oulu
21.4
FF Jaro
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
70.3%
Under 9.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.5%
Under 3.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
42.6%
Under 21.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gnistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.67
0.42
0.61
0.72
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.75
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.52
0.70
0.40
0.46
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.21
0.50
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.60
0.25
0.50
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.67
0.22
0.56
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gnistan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gnistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.03
1.08
0.92
1.22
1.11
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.33
1.00
2.50
1.75
0.75
vs Similar (23)
1.13
0.96
1.10
0.60
1.15
1.23
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.97
0.57
0.93
1.75
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
1.30
0.90
0.50
1.25
1.83
0.67
vs Similar (18)
1.00
1.00
0.56
0.78
1.44
1.22
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gnistan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Gnistan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rachide Gnanou33%
Vertti Hänninen25%
Saku Heiskanen20%
Evgeny Bashkirov18%
Tim Väyrynen17%
Artur Atarah17%
Joakim Latonen15%
Matias Ritari14%
Edmund Arko-Mensah11%
Gabriel Europaeus10%
Didrik Hafstad9%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Anicet Oura0%
Oskar Lyberopoulos0%
Oliver Günes0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Oludare Olufunwa0%
Lucas von Hellens0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edmund Arko-Mensah56%
Lucas von Hellens50%
Rachide Gnanou50%
Roman Eremenko25%
Oludare Olufunwa25%
Gabriel Europaeus20%
Alexandro Craninx18%
Didrik Hafstad18%
Artur Atarah17%
Matias Ritari14%
Jukka Raitala11%
Armend Kabashi11%
Saku Heiskanen10%
Juhani Ojala9%
Evgeny Bashkirov9%
Tim Väyrynen8%
Joakim Latonen8%
Oliver Pettersson8%
Anicet Oura0%
Oskar Lyberopoulos0%
Vertti Hänninen0%
Oliver Günes0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Saku Heiskanen50%
Roman Eremenko25%
Anicet Oura25%
Vertti Hänninen25%
Oliver Günes17%
Matias Ritari14%
Didrik Hafstad9%
Tim Väyrynen8%
Artur Atarah8%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Evgeny Bashkirov0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Oskar Lyberopoulos0%
Edmund Arko-Mensah0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Oludare Olufunwa0%
Lucas von Hellens0%
Gabriel Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Roman Eremenko25%
Joakim Latonen15%
Tim Väyrynen8%
Rachide Gnanou8%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Evgeny Bashkirov0%
Saku Heiskanen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Anicet Oura0%
Oskar Lyberopoulos0%
Edmund Arko-Mensah0%
Vertti Hänninen0%
Oliver Günes0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Oludare Olufunwa0%
Lucas von Hellens0%
Matias Ritari0%
Didrik Hafstad0%
Artur Atarah0%
Gabriel Europaeus0%
VPS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maissa Fall40%
Jesper Engström25%
Yassin Daoussi17%
Olli Jakonen14%
Prosper Ahiabu14%
Martti Haukioja12%
Tyler Reid0%
Tristan Dekker0%
Pedro Justiniano0%
Rasmus Leislahti0%
Antti-Ville Räisänen0%
Miika Niemi0%
Yassine El Ouatki0%
Antonio Almen0%
William Wilson0%
Kalle Huhta0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Prosper Ahiabu43%
Tyler Reid29%
Martti Haukioja25%
Rasmus Leislahti20%
William Wilson20%
Pedro Justiniano17%
Yassin Daoussi17%
Miika Niemi14%
Antti-Ville Räisänen12%
Yassine El Ouatki12%
Maissa Fall0%
Tristan Dekker0%
Jesper Engström0%
Olli Jakonen0%
Antonio Almen0%
Kalle Huhta0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yassine El Ouatki38%
Alfie Cicale25%
Olli Jakonen14%
Antti-Ville Räisänen12%
Tyler Reid0%
Maissa Fall0%
Tristan Dekker0%
Pedro Justiniano0%
Rasmus Leislahti0%
Jesper Engström0%
Martti Haukioja0%
Miika Niemi0%
Yassin Daoussi0%
Prosper Ahiabu0%
Antonio Almen0%
William Wilson0%
Kalle Huhta0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maissa Fall40%
Prosper Ahiabu14%
Martti Haukioja12%
Tyler Reid0%
Tristan Dekker0%
Pedro Justiniano0%
Rasmus Leislahti0%
Jesper Engström0%
Antti-Ville Räisänen0%
Miika Niemi0%
Yassin Daoussi0%
Olli Jakonen0%
Yassine El Ouatki0%
Antonio Almen0%
William Wilson0%
Kalle Huhta0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
Gnistan and VPS have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KOO (10)
€1m
HAK (7)
€0m
Gnistan and VPS have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
HAK (5)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
Gnistan and VPS have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
Gnistan and VPS have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
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KuPS
Inter Turku
Ilves
SJK
HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
Kooteepee
Haka
Turku PS