The contest between Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win. The odds sit at 39% for Górnik, 27% for a draw, and 34% for Stal, so the home side is the slight favourite. The expected total is 2.9 goals, and the most likely total is 2, a 24% chance. The single score that the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.5% probability.
Górnik, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. Stal, on the road against a similar tier, averages 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. This suggests a defensive, low-scoring affair, reflected in the suggested picks: Under 7.5 (98.9%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.9%), Under 6.5 (96.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.1%), and Home under 1.5 HT goals (92.7%). Górnik’s recent form shows a win after a string of losses, while Stal has just recovered from two defeats, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Górnik Łęczna, was expected to win with a 39% probability, yet the match ended in a 2-2 draw, proving the model’s pick wrong. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result of a draw. The model’s selection of “Home win” was incorrect. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 (98.9% hit), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.9% hit), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6% hit), Under 6.5 (96.9% hit), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.3% hit), Away under 3.5 goals (94.4% hit), Home under 3.5 goals (93.1% hit), and Home under 1.5 HT goals (92.4% hit). Both sides entered the game on a draw, with Górnik Łęczna’s recent form showing a string of losses and Stal Mielec’s recent form a mix of draws and a win. The outcome surprised the model’s expectations, confirming the unpredictability of cup encounters.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Górnik Łęczna win✗ Miss
39.0%
Avg Implied 32.7% · @ 2.75
Edge
+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.83
Betano
2.82
Pinnacle
2.81
William Hil
2.80
Draw✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.36
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Stal Mielec win✗ Miss
34.2%
Avg Implied 40.7% · @ 2.21
Edge
-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.42
1xBet
2.28
Dafabet
2.26
BetVictor
2.25
Unibet
2.23
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Górnik Łęczna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.87
0.94
1.69
1.43
2.07
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.12
1.92
0.86
1.79
1.42
2.08
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Mielec) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Mielec
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.80
2.14
1.50
1.19
2.06
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.83
2.25
1.50
1.17
2.17
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.40
1.50
1.50
1.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Górnik Łęczna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.3%
@ 1.16+0.7%
Under 1.5
19.7%
@ 4.51-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.4%
@ 1.56-2.5%
Under 2.5
43.6%
@ 2.23+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.68
Unibet
1.64
Bet365
1.57
BetVictor
1.56
Marathonbet
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.35
Pinnacle
2.28
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.0%
@ 2.36-4.8%
Under 3.5
66.0%
@ 1.50+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Betfair
2.45
Bet365
2.38
BetVictor
2.31
Under
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
BetVictor
1.52
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.4%
@ 1.49-1.4%
No
39.6%
@ 2.42+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.57
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.50
BetVictor
1.45
No
William Hil
2.50
Betfair
2.50
1xBet
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Marathonbet
2.44
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.58+6.1%
2-1
8.7%@ 9.29+4.1%
1-2
8.1%@ 8.10+2.8%
1-0
6.9%@ 11.16+3.1%
0-0
6.4%@ 13.71+3.3%
0-1
6.3%@ 9.75+2.0%
2-2 ✓
6.2%@ 10.23+2.0%
2-0
6.1%@ 15.27+3.4%
Górnik Łęczna goals ↓
Stal Mielec goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.3%
5.3%
2.5%
0.9%
1
6.9%
13%
8.1%
3.8%
1.4%
2
6.1%
8.7%
6.2%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.1%
4.4%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Górnik Łęczna goals (down), columns = Stal Mielec goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Avia Świdnik
2.50
Korona Kielce
2.33
Polonia Bytom
2.25
Chojniczanka Chojnice
2.20
Stal Stalowa Wola
2.00
Jastrzębie
2.00
Hutnik Kraków
2.00
Wisla Krakow
2.00
Piast Gliwice
2.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
2.00
Slask Wroclaw
2.00
Cracovia Krakow
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.50
Odra Opole
1.50
Widzew Łódź
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.50
Miedz Legnica
1.50
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.33
Świt Skolwin
1.33
Lechia Gdansk
1.33
ŁKS Łódź II
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin
1.00
Wieczysta Kraków
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Polonia Warszawa
1.00
Nieciecza
1.00
Wisla Plock
1.00
Chrobry Głogów
1.00
Radomiak Radom
1.00
Legia Warszawa
1.00
Widzew II
0.94
Chemik Bydgoszcz
0.94
Śląsk Wrocław II
0.94
Sokół Ostróda
0.94
Górnik Polkowice
0.94
Górnik Zabrze II
0.94
Luzino
0.94
Wisła Płock II
0.94
Sokół Kleczew
0.94
Kluczevia Stargard
0.94
Lechia Zielona Góra
0.94
Wigry Suwałki
0.94
Kluczbork
0.94
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.94
Podhale Nowy Targ
0.94
Unia Skierniewice
0.54
Znicz Pruszków
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.50
ŁKS Łódź
0.50
Pogon Szczecin
0.50
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.00
Resovia Rzeszów
0.00
Kalisz
0.00
Beskid
0.00
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
0.00
Korona Kielce II
0.00
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
0.00
Polonia Środa
0.00
Tychy 71
0.00
Górnik Łęczna
0.00
Ruch Chorzów
0.00
Stal Mielec
0.00
Stal Rzeszów
0.00
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.00
Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec are level in average points per game (both 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
4.25
Chrobry Głogów
3.00
Avia Świdnik
2.75
Cracovia Krakow
2.50
Stal Stalowa Wola
2.00
Chojniczanka Chojnice
2.00
Nieciecza
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
2.00
Wisla Plock
2.00
Miedz Legnica
2.00
Świt Skolwin
1.67
Korona Kielce
1.67
Jastrzębie
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.50
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.50
Hutnik Kraków
1.33
Slask Wroclaw
1.33
Widzew II
1.03
Chemik Bydgoszcz
1.03
Śląsk Wrocław II
1.03
Sokół Ostróda
1.03
Górnik Polkowice
1.03
Górnik Zabrze II
1.03
Luzino
1.03
Wisła Płock II
1.03
Sokół Kleczew
1.03
Kluczevia Stargard
1.03
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.03
Wigry Suwałki
1.03
Kluczbork
1.03
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.03
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.03
Resovia Rzeszów
1.00
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.00
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.00
Polonia Środa
1.00
ŁKS Łódź II
1.00
Wisla Krakow
1.00
Piast Gliwice
1.00
Górnik Łęczna
1.00
Ruch Chorzów
1.00
Stal Mielec
1.00
Lechia Gdansk
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Legia Warszawa
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
0.59
Znicz Pruszków
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.50
Pogon Szczecin
0.50
Warta Poznań
0.50
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.00
Kalisz
0.00
Beskid
0.00
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
0.00
Korona Kielce II
0.00
Zaglebie Lubin
0.00
Tychy 71
0.00
Wieczysta Kraków
0.00
Motor Lublin
0.00
Polonia Warszawa
0.00
Stal Rzeszów
0.00
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.00
Radomiak Radom
0.00
Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zaglebie Lubin
0.00
Wieczysta Kraków
0.00
Motor Lublin
0.00
Polonia Warszawa
0.00
Radomiak Radom
0.00
Hutnik Kraków
0.33
Korona Kielce
0.33
Jastrzębie
0.50
Warta Poznań
0.50
Olimpia Grudziądz
0.67
Piast Gliwice
0.67
Widzew Łódź
0.75
Chojniczanka Chojnice
0.80
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.00
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.00
Korona Kielce II
1.00
Avia Świdnik
1.00
ŁKS Łódź II
1.00
Stal Rzeszów
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Arka Gdynia
1.00
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.00
Pogon Szczecin
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Slask Wroclaw
1.00
Legia Warszawa
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.25
Wisla Krakow
1.33
Lechia Gdansk
1.33
Podbeskidzie
1.50
Miedz Legnica
1.50
Widzew II
1.58
Chemik Bydgoszcz
1.58
Śląsk Wrocław II
1.58
Sokół Ostróda
1.58
Górnik Polkowice
1.58
Górnik Zabrze II
1.58
Luzino
1.58
Wisła Płock II
1.58
Sokół Kleczew
1.58
Kluczevia Stargard
1.58
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.58
Wigry Suwałki
1.58
Kluczbork
1.58
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.58
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.58
Świt Skolwin
1.67
Resovia Rzeszów
2.00
Kalisz
2.00
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
2.00
Tychy 71
2.00
Znicz Pruszków
2.00
Cracovia Krakow
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.00
Nieciecza
2.00
Wisla Plock
2.00
Pogoń Siedlce
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
2.50
Unia Skierniewice
2.77
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
3.00
Beskid
3.00
Polonia Środa
3.00
Ruch Chorzów
3.00
Chrobry Głogów
3.00
Górnik Łęczna
5.00
Górnik Łęczna is 3.00 goals worse than Stal Mielec in terms of goals conceded per game (5.00 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Górnik Łęczna or Draw✓ Hit
65.8%
Avg Implied 59.1% · @ 1.54
Edge
+6.8%
39%
27%
34%
covers Górnik Łęczna + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.60
William Hil
1.57
BetVictor
1.55
Górnik Łęczna or Stal Mielec✗ Miss
73.2%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.24
Edge
-0.4%
39%
27%
34%
covers Górnik Łęczna + Stal Mielec
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Draw or Stal Mielec✓ Hit
61.0%
Avg Implied 67.4% · @ 1.35
Edge
-6.4%
39%
27%
34%
covers Draw + Stal Mielec
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.36
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Górnik Łęczna over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.3%
@ 1.23+3.6%
Under
21.7%
@ 3.63-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.40
Górnik Łęczna over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
45.1%
@ 2.14+2.2%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.61-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.14
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.10
Under
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Górnik Łęczna over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.8%
@ 4.58-0.3%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.15+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Under
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Górnik Łęczna over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 11.00-1.7%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.03+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
13.00
Bet365
9.00
Under
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Stal Mielec over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.8%
@ 1.17-2.9%
Under
24.2%
@ 4.33+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.40
Superbet
3.60
Stal Mielec over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.4%
@ 1.88-7.6%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.81+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.07
Unibet
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.81
Under
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.80
Unibet
1.67
Stal Mielec over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.1%
@ 3.78-7.4%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.22+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.15
1xBet
3.80
Bet365
3.40
Under
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.15
Stal Mielec over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.6%
@ 8.00-6.2%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.07+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Bet365
7.00
Under
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Górnik Łęczna, so a minus line means Górnik Łęczna give that many goals of a start and Stal Mielec receive them. At -1, Górnik Łęczna must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Górnik Łęczna win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Górnik Łęczna)Actual: Stal Mielec
Górnik Łęczna -2
7.7%
@ 13.00+0.7%
Draw -2
11.9%
@ 8.00+0.5%
Stal Mielec +2
80.4%
@ 1.12-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Away
Bet365
1.12
Handicap -1 (Górnik Łęczna)Actual: Stal Mielec
Górnik Łęczna -1
19.6%
@ 5.35+3.3%
Draw -1
19.4%
@ 4.51-0.0%
Stal Mielec +1
61.0%
@ 1.36-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Unibet
4.40
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
3.75
Away
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Handicap +1 (Górnik Łęczna)Actual: Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna +1
65.8%
@ 1.56+10.3%
Draw +1
17.9%
@ 4.02-3.7%
Stal Mielec -1
16.3%
@ 3.81-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
Unibet
1.49
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Unibet
3.35
Away
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.95
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.55
Handicap +2 (Górnik Łęczna)Actual: Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna +2
83.7%
@ 1.27+12.9%
Draw +2
10.3%
@ 5.65-5.7%
Stal Mielec -2
6.0%
@ 6.88-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.25
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.30
Away
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
5.75
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Górnik Łęczna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.83
0.25
0.88
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.85
0.14
1.00
0.58
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Mielec) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Mielec
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
1.36
0.50
0.38
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.75
1.33
0.58
0.33
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.60
1.50
0.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Górnik Łęczna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.8%
@ 1.27-2.6%
Under 0.5
30.2%
@ 3.33+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
Under
BetVictor
3.60
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.14
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.9%
@ 2.25-6.6%
Under 1.5
66.1%
@ 1.54+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.50
William Hil
2.30
Unibet
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.59
BetVictor
1.58
William Hil
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 5.09-7.4%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.13+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.40
BetVictor
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Under
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
1xBet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Górnik Łęczna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.1%
@ 1.95-8.2%
Under
60.9%
@ 1.75+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
Under
1xBet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
Superbet
1.71
Górnik Łęczna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 5.70-8.4%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.09+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.70
Under
1xBet
1.09
Górnik Łęczna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Mielec over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
53.4%
@ 1.80+2.0%
Under
46.6%
@ 1.90-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
1.99
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.75
Stal Mielec over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.6%
@ 4.70+1.0%
Under
79.4%
@ 1.14-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.70
Under
1xBet
1.14
Stal Mielec over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Górnik Łęczna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.03
0.69
0.81
0.79
1.29
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.77
1.08
0.71
0.79
0.83
1.42
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Mielec) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Mielec
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.00
0.79
1.00
0.81
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
1.08
0.92
0.92
0.83
1.25
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
0.00
1.50
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Górnik Łęczna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.3%
@ 1.15+0.8%
Under 0.5
18.7%
@ 4.75-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
4.90
William Hil
4.60
Superbet
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
53.4%
@ 1.78+1.5%
Under 1.5
46.6%
@ 1.93-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
William Hil
1.80
1xBet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Under
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.95
William Hil
1.91
Superbet
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
22.3%
@ 3.41-4.7%
Under 2.5
77.7%
@ 1.26+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.60
William Hil
3.50
1xBet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Under
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Górnik Łęczna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.3%
@ 1.68-7.9%
Under
52.7%
@ 2.06+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.66
Under
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.02
Górnik Łęczna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 4.20-11.1%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.18+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.20
Under
1xBet
1.18
Górnik Łęczna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Mielec over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
67.1%
@ 1.58+8.7%
Under
32.9%
@ 2.23-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.53
Under
1xBet
2.35
Superbet
2.10
Stal Mielec over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
30.2%
@ 3.50+3.9%
Under
69.8%
@ 1.25-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.50
Under
1xBet
1.25
Stal Mielec over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 9.70-1.2%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.01+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Under
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
-
-
-
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.04
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.8%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.13
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
1xBet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.1%
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-
-
+11.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.7%
1.27
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+12.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.15
-
-
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.5%
1.17
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.3%
1.15
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.3%
1.16
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.13
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
79.4%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.7%
1.26
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.20
-
+4.7%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
75.8%
1.17
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.2%
1.24
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
1xBet
1.24
-0.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stal Mielec · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Piotr Wlazło34%
Ivan Cavaleiro33%
Ilia Shkurin20%
Łukasz Wolsztyński17%
Robert Dadok11%
Mateusz Matras10%
Matthew Guillaumier10%
Sergiy Krykun5%
Krzysztof Wołkowicz5%
Ravve Assayeg5%
Fryderyk Gerbowski5%
Marvin Senger4%
Krystian Getinger4%
Maciej Domański3%
Alvis Jaunzems3%
Jean-David Beauguel0%
Damian Kądzior0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Koki Hinokio0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Karol Knap0%
Bert Esselink0%
Adrian Bukowski0%
Dawid Tkacz0%
Jakub Mądrzyk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Karol Knap23%
Petros Bagalianis20%
Mateusz Matras19%
Marvin Senger19%
Ivan Cavaleiro17%
Matthew Guillaumier16%
Robert Dadok15%
Bert Esselink14%
Piotr Wlazło14%
Adrian Bukowski11%
Damian Kądzior10%
Ilia Shkurin10%
Łukasz Wolsztyński10%
Koki Hinokio10%
Krzysztof Wołkowicz10%
Alvis Jaunzems9%
Fryderyk Gerbowski9%
Krystian Getinger7%
Maciej Domański6%
Dawid Tkacz6%
Ravve Assayeg5%
Jakub Mądrzyk3%
Jean-David Beauguel0%
Sergiy Krykun0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Cavaleiro33%
Matthew Guillaumier13%
Krystian Getinger11%
Adrian Bukowski11%
Ilia Shkurin10%
Łukasz Wolsztyński10%
Karol Knap8%
Robert Dadok7%
Maciej Domański6%
Krzysztof Wołkowicz5%
Mateusz Matras3%
Alvis Jaunzems3%
Jean-David Beauguel0%
Damian Kądzior0%
Piotr Wlazło0%
Sergiy Krykun0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Marvin Senger0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Koki Hinokio0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Ravve Assayeg0%
Fryderyk Gerbowski0%
Bert Esselink0%
Dawid Tkacz0%
Jakub Mądrzyk0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ilia Shkurin25%
Łukasz Wolsztyński13%
Sergiy Krykun11%
Piotr Wlazło10%
Matthew Guillaumier10%
Marvin Senger8%
Robert Dadok7%
Dawid Tkacz6%
Krzysztof Wołkowicz5%
Krystian Getinger4%
Alvis Jaunzems3%
Jean-David Beauguel0%
Damian Kądzior0%
Ivan Cavaleiro0%
Mateusz Matras0%
Maciej Domański0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Koki Hinokio0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Ravve Assayeg0%
Fryderyk Gerbowski0%
Karol Knap0%
Bert Esselink0%
Adrian Bukowski0%
Jakub Mądrzyk0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów