The model favours an away win, a result that aligns with Zrinjski’s recent 3-game winning streak and their strong away form, scoring an average of two goals while conceding only 0.38 against weaker opponents. GOŠK Gabela, playing at home, has struggled against stronger sides, netting just 0.75 goals and conceding 2.25 on average. The expected total of 2.6 goals suggests a compact match, with the single most likely scoreline 1-1 at 13.5%. Home win probability sits at 29%, a draw at 28%, and an away win at 43%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 5.5 (94.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.7%), Away +2 handicap (87.9%), and Under 4.5 (87.1%). These picks reflect a tight, low-scoring affair dominated by Zrinjski’s offensive potency and GOŠK Gabela’s defensive frailties.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Zrinjski secured a 1-2 away win, extending their three-game winning run. The pre-match favourite was the away side, with a 43% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The final score of 1-2 matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 at 99.4%, Under 6.5 at 98.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.9%, Under 5.5 at 94.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 93.7%, Home under 2.5 goals at 88.7%, Away +2 handicap at 87.9%, and Under 4.5 at 87.1%. The match delivered a low-scoring affair, with only three goals, aligning with the model’s most likely total of two goals.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
GOŠK Gabela win✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski win✓ Hit
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
GOŠK Gabela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.07
0.93
1.86
1.06
2.25
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
2.50
0.75
2.25
0.75
2.75
vs Similar (22)
1.09
1.91
1.00
1.70
1.17
2.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-28pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zrinjski
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.90
1.67
0.67
1.20
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (11)
1.27
0.91
2.00
0.67
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (16)
1.75
0.50
1.50
0.62
2.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
40% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (GOŠK Gabela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.3%
Under 2.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.4%
Under 3.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.4%
No
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
0-1
9.3%
1-2 ✓
9.1%
0-0
8.3%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
7.1%
1-0
7.0%
2-2
5.3%
GOŠK Gabela goals ↓
Zrinjski goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
9.3%
7.8%
3.8%
1.4%
1
7.0%
13%
9.1%
4.5%
1.7%
2
4.8%
7.1%
5.3%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.9%
2.8%
2.1%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = GOŠK Gabela goals (down), columns = Zrinjski goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.50
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
2.50
FK Sarajevo
2.12
Posušje
2.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.00
Zrinjski
1.75
Radnik Bijeljina
1.50
Velež
1.50
Čelik
1.50
Kruševo
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Grude
0.87
FK Majevica Lopare
0.87
FK Romanija Pale
0.87
Gradina
0.87
Radnik Hadžići
0.87
Jedinstvo Bihać
0.87
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
0.87
Tekstilac Derventa
0.87
NK Slatina Bašigovci
0.87
ŠD Napredak Matići
0.87
Tuzla City
0.87
BSK Banja Luka
0.78
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Sloga Doboj
0.50
Stupčanica Olovo
0.00
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Slavija
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Zvijezda 09
0.00
GOŠK Gabela is 1.25 points worse than Zrinjski in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
3.50
Radnik Bijeljina
3.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.25
Slavija
2.00
Borac Banja Luka
1.83
FK Sarajevo
1.75
Posušje
1.50
Kruševo
1.25
Velež
1.25
Grude
1.04
FK Majevica Lopare
1.04
FK Romanija Pale
1.04
Gradina
1.04
Radnik Hadžići
1.04
Jedinstvo Bihać
1.04
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
1.04
Tekstilac Derventa
1.04
NK Slatina Bašigovci
1.04
ŠD Napredak Matići
1.04
Tuzla City
1.04
Stupčanica Olovo
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Čelik
1.00
Zrinjski
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.93
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Sloga Doboj
0.50
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Leotar
0.00
GOŠK Gabela is 0.50 goals worse than Zrinjski in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Posušje
0.00
Borac Banja Luka
0.50
FK Sarajevo
0.50
Zrinjski
0.75
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.83
Siroki Brijeg
0.88
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
GOŠK Gabela
1.00
Radnik Bijeljina
1.00
Velež
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.50
Stupčanica Olovo
2.00
Laktaši
2.00
Zvijezda 09
2.00
Čelik
2.00
Grude
2.03
FK Majevica Lopare
2.03
FK Romanija Pale
2.03
Gradina
2.03
Radnik Hadžići
2.03
Jedinstvo Bihać
2.03
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
2.03
Tekstilac Derventa
2.03
NK Slatina Bašigovci
2.03
ŠD Napredak Matići
2.03
Tuzla City
2.03
BSK Banja Luka
2.27
Famos-SAŠK
3.00
Kruševo
3.00
Leotar
3.00
Slavija
5.00
GOŠK Gabela is 0.25 goals worse than Zrinjski in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
GOŠK Gabela or Draw✗ Miss
56.8%
Avg Implied -
29%
28%
43%
covers GOŠK Gabela + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
GOŠK Gabela or Zrinjski✓ Hit
71.8%
Avg Implied -
29%
28%
43%
covers GOŠK Gabela + Zrinjski
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zrinjski✓ Hit
71.4%
Avg Implied -
29%
28%
43%
covers Draw + Zrinjski
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
GOŠK Gabela over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.8%
Under
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GOŠK Gabela over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.5%
Under
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GOŠK Gabela over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GOŠK Gabela over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
43.6%
Under
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to GOŠK Gabela, so a minus line means GOŠK Gabela give that many goals of a start and Zrinjski receive them. At -1, GOŠK Gabela must win by two or more to land; a one-goal GOŠK Gabela win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (GOŠK Gabela)Actual: Zrinjski
GOŠK Gabela -2
3.8%
Draw -2
8.3%
Zrinjski +2
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (GOŠK Gabela)Actual: Zrinjski
GOŠK Gabela -1
12.1%
Draw -1
16.5%
Zrinjski +1
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (GOŠK Gabela)Actual: Draw
GOŠK Gabela +1
56.8%
Draw +1
21.4%
Zrinjski -1
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (GOŠK Gabela)Actual: GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela +2
78.1%
Draw +2
13.3%
Zrinjski -2
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
GOŠK Gabela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.00
0.21
0.86
0.56
1.12
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.25
0.75
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.45
1.00
0.20
0.90
0.67
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zrinjski
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.40
0.67
0.47
0.27
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.55
0.83
0.67
0.00
0.40
vs Weaker (16)
0.56
0.19
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.12
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (GOŠK Gabela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
GOŠK Gabela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GOŠK Gabela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GOŠK Gabela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
GOŠK Gabela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.07
0.71
1.00
0.50
1.12
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.91
0.80
0.80
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zrinjski
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.00
0.20
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.36
1.17
0.00
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
0.31
0.88
0.38
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (GOŠK Gabela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
GOŠK Gabela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GOŠK Gabela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GOŠK Gabela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →