Grafičar vs Dubočica Result & Analysis

Grafićar are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model favouring a home win at 60%. The draw sits at 24% and an away win at 16%. The average number of goals expected is 2.9, but the most likely total is 2 goals, with a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.3% probability. Grafićar have been prolific at home, averaging 2.5 goals scored and conceding just 0.67 against weaker opposition, while Dubočica’s recent form shows a win after a 4-1 defeat to Grafićar. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries a 78.9% probability. In sum, the match is projected to finish 1-1, with a 60% chance of a home victory, 24% chance of a draw and 16% chance of an away win, and the Over 1.5 goal pick at 78.9%.

The upset came early as Grafičar, the pre-match favourite, fell short of the 60% expectation, with Dubočica snatching a 1-2 away win. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result contradicted its 60% home-win probability. Dubočica’s victory extended their recent run, while Grafičar’s form had dipped after two straight defeats. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit its 78.9% probability, confirming the match’s goal-scoring potential. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not achieved, and the 2-0 outcome also missed. Overall, the prediction missed the favourite’s success but captured the match’s total-goals likelihood.