Grafičar vs Dubočica Result & Analysis

Grafićar are tipped to win, the model’s favourite result, with a 48% chance of a home victory, 28% for a draw and 23% for Dubočica. The expected goal count sits at 2.5, so the most likely total is two goals, a 27% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, a 13.5% chance, and that is the only scoreline to mention.

At home Grafićar have been prolific, averaging two goals scored and just 0.67 conceded against weaker opposition, while Dubočica have struggled away, conceding more than they score. The match is expected to be evenly matched in terms of goal output, with the 1-1 line reflecting that balance.

The model’s selections include an 75.9% chance of Under 3.5 goals and a 72.4% chance of Over 1.5 goals. No other outcomes are offered. The recent form suggests a narrative: Grafićar are coming off two straight defeats, having lost 1-4 to Dubočica, whereas Dubočica have just beaten Grafićar 4-1 away, so the home side may be looking to correct that.

Grafićar’s win streak snapped as the match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the pre-match favourite. The model had tipped a home win with a 48% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the actual result, extending Grafićar’s recent form note of “after 2 straight defeats” and ending Dubočica’s “coming off a win.” The model’s other selections were accurate: the Under 3.5 pick hit at 75.9% and the Over 1.5 hit at 72.4%. The most likely total of 2 goals (27%) proved correct, while the 1-1 scoreline was the most probable outcome.