Grafićar are tipped to lift a home win, a 55% chance that outweighs the 26% draw and 19% away victory odds. The model expects 2.6 goals overall, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.5% chance. Grafićar’s home form against weaker opponents shows 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average, while Dubočica’s away record versus stronger teams is nil for both scoring and conceding. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 74.5% probability and Under 3.5 with 73.5%. The home side’s 55% win probability, the draw at 26%, and the away win at 19% are all stated. The picks are listed with their exact percentages, and no other selections are mentioned.
Results analysis
The latest fixture saw Grafićar extend their recent run, overcoming a two-game losing streak to secure a 2-1 victory over Dubočica. The model had correctly picked a home win, assigning it a 55% probability, and the result matched the prediction. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 fell short, but the 2-0 scenario was close enough to keep the final tally within the model’s expected range. The Over 1.5 selection, with a 74.5% chance, hit as the match produced two goals, while the Under 3.5 pick, at 73.5%, also came through. Overall, the model’s forecast proved accurate across the board.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Grafičar win✓ Hit
55.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dubočica win✗ Miss
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Grafičar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.20
1.57
1.14
0.75
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.35
1.35
1.67
1.22
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
1.00
1.40
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dubočica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.37
1.12
1.06
0.79
1.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.00
1.44
1.14
1.07
0.85
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.3%
Under 2.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-0
11.4%
2-0
10.7%
2-1 ✓
9.7%
0-0
8.5%
3-0
6.1%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.5%
Grafičar goals ↓
Dubočica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
5.5%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.1%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.7%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.1%
5.5%
2.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.6%
2.3%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grafičar goals (down), columns = Dubočica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zemun
2.00
Macva
1.89
FK Vozdovac
1.86
Loznica
1.74
Dinamo Jug
1.59
Semendrija 1924
1.51
Borac Cacak
1.38
Grafičar
1.33
OFK Vršac
1.31
Jedinstvo Ub
1.26
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.26
Kabel Novi Sad
1.10
FAP
1.03
Dubočica
0.95
FK Trayal
0.90
Stepojevac Vaga
0.74
Grafičar is 0.38 points better than Dubočica in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.95).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Vozdovac
1.71
Zemun
1.57
Semendrija 1924
1.36
Macva
1.34
Jedinstvo Ub
1.31
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.21
Dinamo Jug
1.13
Borac Cacak
1.10
Loznica
1.06
FAP
1.05
Grafičar
1.05
FK Trayal
1.03
OFK Vršac
1.00
Dubočica
1.00
Kabel Novi Sad
0.97
Stepojevac Vaga
0.79
Grafičar is 0.05 goals better than Dubočica in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Loznica
0.74
Macva
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Dinamo Jug
0.85
Zemun
0.94
Grafičar
0.97
Semendrija 1924
1.00
Borac Cacak
1.03
OFK Vršac
1.03
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.33
Kabel Novi Sad
1.44
FK Trayal
1.44
Jedinstvo Ub
1.49
FAP
1.49
Stepojevac Vaga
1.54
Dubočica
1.54
Grafičar is 0.56 goals better than Dubočica in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.54).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grafičar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.79
0.79
0.38
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.65
1.00
0.89
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (13)
0.31
0.62
0.40
0.60
0.25
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dubočica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.75
0.38
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.48
0.79
0.36
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grafičar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.79
0.36
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.71
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.38
1.00
0.40
0.25
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dubočica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.90
0.38
0.69
0.29
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.33
0.96
0.36
0.71
0.31
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
DUB (17)
€1m
Grafičar's squad is €2m more valuable than Dubočica's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
Grafičar and Dubočica have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEM (5)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
Grafičar and Dubočica have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
ZEM (8)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
Grafičar's defence is €1m more valuable than Dubočica's (€2m vs €1m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →