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Grafičar vs Dubočica Result & Analysis

Date: 09/03/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 2-1
Grafičar
Grafičar
Vs
55%
26%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dubočica
Dubočica
Serbia: Prva Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Grafićar are tipped to lift a home win, a 55% chance that outweighs the 26% draw and 19% away victory odds. The model expects 2.6 goals overall, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.5% chance. Grafićar’s home form against weaker opponents shows 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average, while Dubočica’s away record versus stronger teams is nil for both scoring and conceding. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 74.5% probability and Under 3.5 with 73.5%. The home side’s 55% win probability, the draw at 26%, and the away win at 19% are all stated. The picks are listed with their exact percentages, and no other selections are mentioned.

Results analysis

The latest fixture saw Grafićar extend their recent run, overcoming a two-game losing streak to secure a 2-1 victory over Dubočica. The model had correctly picked a home win, assigning it a 55% probability, and the result matched the prediction. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 fell short, but the 2-0 scenario was close enough to keep the final tally within the model’s expected range. The Over 1.5 selection, with a 74.5% chance, hit as the match produced two goals, while the Under 3.5 pick, at 73.5%, also came through. Overall, the model’s forecast proved accurate across the board.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Grafičar win✓ Hit
55.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dubočica win✗ Miss
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GrafičarGrafičar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W00D40W00D21W03L00D11D21W01LH·MAC02/11A·KAB08/11H·JED15/11A·BOR22/11H·ZEM29/11A·FK 07/12H·SEM13/12A·DIN14/02H·FAP23/02A·LOZ28/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.201.571.140.751.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.351.351.671.221.001.50
vs Weaker (13)0.851.001.401.000.501.00
Clean sheet %27% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DubočicaDubočica

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W03L23L04L11D02L01L10W22D10WH·BOR03/11A·ZEM08/11H·FK 18/11A·SEM23/11H·DIN29/11A·FAP07/12H·LOZ14/12H·OFK15/02A·FK 21/02H·STE01/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.371.121.060.791.71
vs Stronger (3)0.670.671.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (27)1.001.441.141.070.851.85
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.3%
Under 2.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-0
11.4%
2-0
10.7%
2-1 ✓
9.7%
0-0
8.5%
3-0
6.1%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.5%
Grafičar goals ↓
Dubočica goals →
01234
08.5%5.5%3.0%0.9%0.2%
111%12%5.1%1.5%0.3%
211%9.7%4.4%1.3%0.3%
36.1%5.5%2.5%0.7%0.2%
42.6%2.3%1.1%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grafičar goals (down), columns = Dubočica goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zemun
2.00
Macva
1.89
FK Vozdovac
1.86
Loznica
1.74
Dinamo Jug
1.59
Semendrija 1924
1.51
Borac Cacak
1.38
Grafičar
1.33
OFK Vršac
1.31
Jedinstvo Ub
1.26
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.26
Kabel Novi Sad
1.10
FAP
1.03
Dubočica
0.95
FK Trayal
0.90
Stepojevac Vaga
0.74
Grafičar is 0.38 points better than Dubočica in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.95).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Vozdovac
1.71
Zemun
1.57
Semendrija 1924
1.36
Macva
1.34
Jedinstvo Ub
1.31
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.21
Dinamo Jug
1.13
Borac Cacak
1.10
Loznica
1.06
FAP
1.05
Grafičar
1.05
FK Trayal
1.03
OFK Vršac
1.00
Dubočica
1.00
Kabel Novi Sad
0.97
Stepojevac Vaga
0.79
Grafičar is 0.05 goals better than Dubočica in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Loznica
0.74
Macva
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Dinamo Jug
0.85
Zemun
0.94
Grafičar
0.97
Semendrija 1924
1.00
Borac Cacak
1.03
OFK Vršac
1.03
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.33
Kabel Novi Sad
1.44
FK Trayal
1.44
Jedinstvo Ub
1.49
FAP
1.49
Stepojevac Vaga
1.54
Dubočica
1.54
Grafičar is 0.56 goals better than Dubočica in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.54).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GrafičarGrafičar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D30W00D10W01L00D10W01L01LH·MAC02/11A·KAB08/11H·JED15/11A·BOR22/11H·ZEM29/11A·FK 07/12H·SEM13/12A·DIN14/02H·FAP23/02A·LOZ28/02
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.630.790.790.380.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.760.651.000.890.500.38
vs Weaker (13)0.310.620.400.600.250.62
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DubočicaDubočica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W01L22D00D00D01L00D10W10W10WH·BOR03/11A·ZEM08/11H·FK 18/11A·SEM23/11H·DIN29/11A·FAP07/12H·LOZ14/12H·OFK15/02A·FK 21/02H·STE01/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.470.750.380.500.57
vs Stronger (3)0.330.330.500.500.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.670.480.790.360.540.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GrafičarGrafičar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D10W00D11D02L00D01L20W00DH·MAC02/11A·KAB08/11H·JED15/11A·BOR22/11H·ZEM29/11A·FK 07/12H·SEM13/12A·DIN14/02H·FAP23/02A·LOZ28/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.570.790.360.380.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.590.710.670.330.501.12
vs Weaker (13)0.540.381.000.400.250.38
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DubočicaDubočica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L02L01L04L11D01L01L00D12L00DH·BOR03/11A·ZEM08/11H·FK 18/11A·SEM23/11H·DIN29/11A·FAP07/12H·LOZ14/12H·OFK15/02A·FK 21/02H·STE01/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.900.380.690.291.14
vs Stronger (3)0.330.330.500.500.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.330.960.360.710.311.23
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
DUB (17)
€1m
Grafičar's squad is €2m more valuable than Dubočica's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
Grafičar and Dubočica have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEM (5)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
Grafičar and Dubočica have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
ZEM (8)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
Grafičar's defence is €1m more valuable than Dubočica's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
GRA wins
2
Draws
2
DUB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Grafičar vs Dubočica · H/A from GRA
DateH/AGameScore
29/09/25ADubočica Vs GRA1-1
08/12/24HGRA Vs Dubočica1-1
26/08/24ADubočica Vs GRA1-3
02/12/23ADubočica Vs GRA2-1
27/08/23HGRA Vs Dubočica1-2

GrafičarGrafičar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/26ALoznica Vs GRA1-0
23/02/26HGRA Vs FAP2-1
14/02/26ADinamo Jug Vs GRA1-1
13/12/25HGRA Vs Semendrija 19240-0
07/12/25AFK Vozdovac Vs GRA3-0
29/11/25HGRA Vs Zemun2-1
22/11/25ABorac Cacak Vs GRA0-0
15/11/25HGRA Vs Jedinstvo Ub4-0
08/11/25AKabel Novi Sad Vs GRA0-0
02/11/25HGRA Vs Macva2-0

DubočicaDubočica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/26HDUB Vs Stepojevac Vaga1-0
21/02/26AFK Trayal Vs DUB2-2
15/02/26HDUB Vs OFK Vršac1-0
14/12/25HDUB Vs Loznica0-1
07/12/25AFAP Vs DUB2-0
29/11/25HDUB Vs Dinamo Jug1-1
23/11/25ASemendrija 1924 Vs DUB4-0
18/11/25HDUB Vs FK Vozdovac2-3
08/11/25AZemun Vs DUB3-0
03/11/25HDUB Vs Borac Cacak3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Grafičar
Grafičar
Serbia: Prva Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWL1.28
HomeWWWDW1.48
AwayDDLDL1.11
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%35%26%
AVG goals2.342.352.33
Over 1.5 %76%83%70%
Over 2.5 %42%39%44%
Over 3.5 %22%17%26%
Scored1.101.390.85
Conceded1.240.961.48
BTTS54%61%48%
Clean Sheet28%30%26%
Corners---
Cards---
Dubočica
Dubočica
Serbia: Prva Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDW1.12
HomeLDLWW1.38
AwayLLLLD0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%38%17%
AVG goals2.482.692.25
Over 1.5 %72%73%71%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %26%31%21%
Scored1.061.380.71
Conceded1.421.311.54
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet22%27%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZemunZemun3570
57%
2.0
5533+22
2.5
71%
49%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2111.60.9
-
2MacvaMacva3566
54%
1.9
4729+18
2.2
71%
40%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.30.8
-
3FK VozdovacFK Vozdovac3565
54%
1.9
6029+31
2.5
71%
49%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.70.8
-
4Dinamo JugDinamo Jug3962
41%
1.6
4433+11
2.0
62%
33%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
5LoznicaLoznica3561
49%
1.7
3726+11
1.8
63%
26%
3%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.10.7
-
6Semendrija 1924Semendrija 19243959
44%
1.5
5339+14
2.4
67%
41%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.0
-
7Borac CacakBorac Cacak3954
36%
1.4
4340+3
2.1
59%
31%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.0
-
8GrafičarGrafičar3952
36%
1.3
4138+3
2.0
67%
36%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.11.0
-
9Tekstilac OdžaciTekstilac Odžaci3949
31%
1.3
4752-5
2.5
77%
49%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
10OFK VršacOFK Vršac3546
29%
1.3
3536-1
2.0
54%
34%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.01.0
-
11Jedinstvo UbJedinstvo Ub3544
31%
1.3
4652-6
2.8
77%
51%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.5
-
12Kabel Novi SadKabel Novi Sad3943
26%
1.1
3856-18
2.4
69%
46%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
13FAPFAP3940
26%
1.0
4158-17
2.5
74%
44%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
14DubočicaDubočica3937
21%
0.9
3960-21
2.5
77%
51%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.5
-
15FK TrayalFK Trayal3935
23%
0.9
4056-16
2.5
74%
38%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
16Stepojevac VagaStepojevac Vaga3929
15%
0.7
3160-29
2.3
69%
44%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.5
-
Serbia: Prva Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →

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