Grafiadar has struggled in recent matches, suffering three consecutive defeats, most recently a 1-2 loss to Semendrija 1924. This comes after a streak of two wins. Loznica, on the other hand, has been unbeaten in their last five matches, with a 0-0 draw against Dubočica.
Defensively, Grafiadar has shown some resilience, conceding an average of 0.8 goals at home, while Loznica has been slightly more porous, conceding an average of 1 goal while away from home.
Grafiadar's home form against similar opponents sees them scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 0.8. Loznica, away from home against similar opponents, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1 goal conceded.
The model predicts a 42% chance of a Grafiadar win, a 33% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of an Loznica win, favouring a Grafiadar win. The expected total number of goals is 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.4%.
The model's selection is Under 3.5, with a probability of 86.6%. Grafiadar has a 42% chance of winning, a 33% chance of drawing, and a 25% chance of losing. The model's selection of Under 3.5 has a probability of 86.6%.
The unexpected draw stunned the pre-match favourite, as Grafi\u010dar were tipped to win with a 42 % probability, yet the match finished 2-2. The model’s call was wrong. The scoreline also meant the model’s selection for a Home win was incorrect. Despite the upset, every suggested pick resolved: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.1 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 97.1 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 95.2 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 91.9 %, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 89.2 %, Under 3.5 missed at 86.6 %, Away +2 handicap hit at 81.5 %, and Away under 1.5 goals missed at 80.7 %. The game was a tight contest, with both sides unable to secure a win, leaving the model’s predictions largely accurate except for the favourite.
Grafičar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.47 | 0.80 | 0.53 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.92 | 0.83 | 1.25 | 0.88 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.06 | 0.78 | 1.71 | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.82 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Loznica| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 0.70 | 1.19 | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.14 | 0.72 | 1.27 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.79 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
| Loznica goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 16% | 10% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 15% | 14% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 9.3% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Grafičar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.13 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.62 | 0.12 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Loznica| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.12 | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.48 | 0.21 | 0.53 | 0.13 | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 83% (+50pp vs league) | |||||
Grafičar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.42 | 0.58 | 0.62 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 0.72 | 0.39 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Loznica| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.69 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.66 | 0.52 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 3.5 goals | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 97.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 95.2% | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.02 | - | - | - | +4.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 91.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 89.2% | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.09 | - | - | - | +5.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 86.6% | 1.12 | 1.15 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.10 | - | +4.7% | ✗ Miss |
| Away +2 handicap | 81.5% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +13.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 80.7% | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.17 | - | - | +3.3% | ✗ Miss |
| Home or Draw | 75.5% | 1.21 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | +0.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Home +1 handicap | 75.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/09/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 05/11/22 | A | 2-1 | |
| 06/08/22 | H | 5-1 |
Grafičar| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 09/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 29/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 24/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 11/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 07/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-0 |
Loznica| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Borac Cacak | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 2 | OFK Vršac | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Javor | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 3.5 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 4 | Semendrija 1924 | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | TSC Backa Topola | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Napredak | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2.2 | 67% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 4.2 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.8 | - |
| 8 | Loznica | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Dubočica | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 | Teleoptik | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.6 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.2 | - |
| 11 | OFK Bor 1919 | 6 | 5 | 17% | 0.8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2.7 | 67% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 12 | Grafičar | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 13 | FK Vozdovac | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1.6 | 20% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 14 | Naftagas | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Metalac GM | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Jedinstvo Ub | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2.8 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |