Grafićar are the clear favourites, the model rating them at 72 % for a home win and picking that outcome as the most likely. Their recent 1-2 loss to Naftagas is already a low-point start, yet their home form against weaker opponents shows 1.75 goals scored and only 0.88 conceded, a stark contrast to OFK Bor 1919’s away record of 0.33 scored and 2.33 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the single most likely scoreline 2-0, a 14.5 % chance. The match is projected to finish 2-0, a decisive home victory. Home win probability 72 %, draw 20 %, away win 9 %. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals99.6 %, Under 7.599.3 %, Home +2 handicap97.8 %, Under 6.597.7 %, Away under 2.5 goals97.5 %, Under 5.593.8 %, Home or Draw91.4 %, and Home +1 handicap91.4 %. These picks reflect the strong home advantage and the away side’s defensive frailty.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Grafičar win
68.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
OFK Bor 1919 win
10.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Grafičar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.93
1.38
0.88
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
1.06
1.62
1.12
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Bor 1919) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFK Bor 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.83
1.33
1.33
0.33
2.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 3.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.0%
No
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.1%
1-0
11.6%
1-1
9.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
9.2%
0-0
6.8%
3-1
6.6%
4-0
4.8%
Grafičar goals ↓
OFK Bor 1919 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
3.4%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
1
12%
9.9%
3.2%
0.8%
0.1%
2
13%
9.5%
3.4%
0.8%
0.1%
3
9.2%
6.6%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
4
4.8%
3.5%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grafičar goals (down), columns = OFK Bor 1919 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Grafičar is 0.17 points worse than OFK Bor 1919 in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Grafičar is 0.17 goals better than OFK Bor 1919 in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Grafičar and OFK Bor 1919 are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Grafičar or Draw
89.3%
Avg Implied -
69%
21%
11%
covers Grafičar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grafičar or OFK Bor 1919
79.2%
Avg Implied -
69%
21%
11%
covers Grafičar + OFK Bor 1919
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or OFK Bor 1919
31.4%
Avg Implied -
69%
21%
11%
covers Draw + OFK Bor 1919
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Grafičar over/under 0.5
Over
87.8%
Under
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5
Over
62.1%
Under
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 3.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Bor 1919 over/under 0.5
Over
51.3%
Under
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Bor 1919 over/under 1.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Bor 1919 over/under 2.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Bor 1919 over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Grafičar, so a minus line means Grafičar give that many goals of a start and OFK Bor 1919 receive them. At -1, Grafičar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Grafičar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Grafičar)
Grafičar -2
23.6%
Draw -2
21.2%
OFK Bor 1919 +2
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Grafičar)
Grafičar -1
44.8%
Draw -1
23.8%
OFK Bor 1919 +1
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Grafičar)
Grafičar +1
89.3%
Draw +1
7.5%
OFK Bor 1919 -1
3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Grafičar)
Grafičar +2
96.9%
Draw +2
2.5%
OFK Bor 1919 -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grafičar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.37
0.56
0.38
0.21
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.29
0.50
0.12
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.44
0.44
0.62
0.62
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Bor 1919) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFK Bor 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.00
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.20
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Bor 1919 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Bor 1919 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Bor 1919 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grafičar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.94
0.62
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.64
0.88
0.75
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Bor 1919) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFK Bor 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Bor 1919 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Bor 1919 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Bor 1919 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
Grafičar's squad is €2m more valuable than OFK Bor 1919's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Grafičar and OFK Bor 1919 have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
Grafičar and OFK Bor 1919 have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Grafičar's defence is €1m more valuable than OFK Bor 1919's (€2m vs €1m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →