Grafiadar is expected to take the win in this match, with a narrow victory likely to be the outcome. Grafiadar has been struggling recently, having suffered two straight defeats, but they have shown resilience in their past performances. On the other hand, Semendrija 1924 is on a four-game winning run, with a strong away form that has seen them score 0.67 goals on average and concede 0.75 goals per game.
The model predicts a 42% chance of a home win, 31% chance of a draw, and 27% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total goals being 2. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability.
At home, Grafiadar has been scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 0.9 goals per game, while their opponents have been scoring 0.67 goals and conceding 0.75 goals on average when playing away against similar opponents. The model's selection is Under 3.5, with an 80.4% probability, and an edge of 2%. The home win percentage is 42%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 27%.
Results analysis
The away team Semendrija 1924 pulled off a stunning upset, winning 1-2 at Grafiadar's home turf, extending their winning streak to six matches. This result comes as a surprise to many, given Grafiadar's recent form, which had seen them win just two of their last six games after a three-match losing streak.
The model's selection, Grafiadar to win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 42%. Meanwhile, Semendrija 1924's away win had a pre-match probability of 27%. The model's other selection, Under 3.5, was correct, hitting with a probability of 80.4%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Grafičar win✗ Miss
42.3%
Avg Implied 44.1% · @ 2.04
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.00
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.10
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Dafabet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Semendrija 1924 win✓ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.49
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.60
1xBet
3.56
Betano
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Grafičar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.47
0.73
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.92
1.29
0.71
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (18)
1.11
0.72
1.62
0.75
0.70
0.70
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Semendrija 1924) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Semendrija 1924
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.93
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.6%
@ 1.40+2.2%
Under 1.5
32.4%
@ 2.65-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.65
Superbet
2.65
1xBet
2.59
Marathonbet
2.59
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.7%
@ 2.30-0.2%
Under 2.5
60.3%
@ 1.53+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Superbet
2.37
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.29
Under
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.6%
@ 4.29-1.8%
Under 3.5
80.4%
@ 1.16+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.25
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Under
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.7%
@ 1.99+0.5%
No
53.3%
@ 1.71-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.05
Betfair
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Marathonbet
1.96
1xBet
1.96
No
1xBet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
BetVictor
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 5.72+7.1%
1-0
12.0%@ 5.62+4.6%
0-0
11.6%@ 6.69+5.3%
0-1
8.8%@ 7.78+3.4%
2-0
8.6%@ 8.23+3.5%
2-1
8.4%@ 8.70+3.6%
1-2 ✓
6.4%@ 11.80+2.9%
0-2
5.0%@ 15.20+2.2%
Grafičar goals ↓
Semendrija 1924 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.8%
5.0%
1.6%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.4%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.6%
8.4%
4.1%
1.4%
0.3%
3
3.7%
3.6%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grafičar goals (down), columns = Semendrija 1924 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Grafičar is 1.33 points worse than Semendrija 1924 in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Grafičar is 0.83 goals worse than Semendrija 1924 in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Grafičar is 0.83 goals worse than Semendrija 1924 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grafičar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.37
0.67
0.33
0.20
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.33
0.71
0.14
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.39
0.39
0.62
0.50
0.20
0.30
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Semendrija 1924) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Semendrija 1924
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.37
0.81
0.31
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.37
0.81
0.31
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grafičar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.80
0.40
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.58
0.57
0.57
0.00
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.72
0.33
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Semendrija 1924) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Semendrija 1924
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
1.19
0.69
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.87
0.63
1.19
0.69
0.50
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.4%
1.16
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
Grafičar and Semendrija 1924 have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Grafičar and Semendrija 1924 have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
Grafičar and Semendrija 1924 have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Grafičar and Semendrija 1924 have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →