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Grafičar vs Stepojevac Vaga Result & Analysis

Date: 17/04/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 2-0
Grafičar
Grafičar
Vs
54%
28%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stepojevac Vaga
Stepojevac Vaga
Serbia: Prva Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Grafičar win✓ Hit
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stepojevac Vaga win✗ Miss
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GrafičarGrafičar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D11D21W01L21W20W00D02L00DA·FK 07/12H·SEM13/12A·DIN14/02H·FAP23/02A·LOZ28/02H·DUB09/03A·FK 14/03H·STE22/03H·OFK28/03A·TEK05/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.971.331.000.670.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.061.191.381.000.751.38
vs Weaker (14)0.930.711.291.000.570.43
Clean sheet %37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stepojevac Vaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stepojevac VagaStepojevac Vaga

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D22D00D01L22D00D00D02L02LA·SEM06/12H·DIN12/12A·FAP15/02H·LOZ20/02A·DUB01/03H·FK 09/03H·OFK13/03A·GRA22/03H·TEK27/03A·MAC05/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.330.871.000.671.67
vs Stronger (10)0.401.300.400.800.401.80
vs Similar (20)0.951.351.101.100.801.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.6%
Under 1.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.8%
Under 2.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.6%
Under 3.5
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.0%
No
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.3%
1-1
13.1%
2-0 ✓
11.7%
0-0
11.4%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
5.9%
1-2
4.6%
Grafičar goals ↓
Stepojevac Vaga goals →
01234
011%6.7%3.0%0.8%0.1%
114%13%4.6%1.2%0.2%
212%9.0%3.4%0.9%0.2%
35.9%4.5%1.7%0.4%0.1%
42.2%1.7%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grafičar goals (down), columns = Stepojevac Vaga goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zemun
2.00
Macva
1.89
FK Vozdovac
1.86
Loznica
1.74
Dinamo Jug
1.59
Semendrija 1924
1.51
Borac Cacak
1.38
Grafičar
1.33
OFK Vršac
1.31
Jedinstvo Ub
1.26
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.26
Kabel Novi Sad
1.10
FAP
1.03
Dubočica
0.95
FK Trayal
0.90
Stepojevac Vaga
0.74
Grafičar is 0.59 points better than Stepojevac Vaga in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.74).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Vozdovac
1.71
Zemun
1.57
Semendrija 1924
1.36
Macva
1.34
Jedinstvo Ub
1.31
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.21
Dinamo Jug
1.13
Borac Cacak
1.10
Loznica
1.06
FAP
1.05
Grafičar
1.05
FK Trayal
1.03
OFK Vršac
1.00
Dubočica
1.00
Kabel Novi Sad
0.97
Stepojevac Vaga
0.79
Grafičar is 0.26 goals better than Stepojevac Vaga in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 0.79).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Loznica
0.74
Macva
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Dinamo Jug
0.85
Zemun
0.94
Grafičar
0.97
Semendrija 1924
1.00
Borac Cacak
1.03
OFK Vršac
1.03
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.33
Kabel Novi Sad
1.44
FK Trayal
1.44
Jedinstvo Ub
1.49
FAP
1.49
Stepojevac Vaga
1.54
Dubočica
1.54
Grafičar is 0.56 goals better than Stepojevac Vaga in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.54).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GrafičarGrafičar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D10W01L01L20W00D00D02L00DA·FK 07/12H·SEM13/12A·DIN14/02H·FAP23/02A·LOZ28/02H·DUB09/03A·FK 14/03H·STE22/03H·OFK28/03A·TEK05/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.530.670.600.330.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.620.560.750.620.500.50
vs Weaker (14)0.360.500.570.570.140.43
Clean sheet %57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stepojevac Vaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stepojevac VagaStepojevac Vaga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W00D01L11D00D00D02L01LA·SEM06/12H·DIN12/12A·FAP15/02H·LOZ20/02A·DUB01/03H·FK 09/03H·OFK13/03A·GRA22/03H·TEK27/03A·MAC05/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.530.470.330.200.73
vs Stronger (10)0.300.500.400.000.201.00
vs Similar (20)0.350.550.500.500.200.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stepojevac Vaga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stepojevac Vaga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stepojevac Vaga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GrafičarGrafičar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D01L20W00D01L20W00D00D00DA·FK 07/12H·SEM13/12A·DIN14/02H·FAP23/02A·LOZ28/02H·DUB09/03A·FK 14/03H·STE22/03H·OFK28/03A·TEK05/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.430.670.400.330.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.440.620.620.380.250.88
vs Weaker (14)0.570.210.710.430.430.00
Clean sheet %67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Stepojevac Vaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stepojevac VagaStepojevac Vaga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D12L00D00D11D00D00D00D01LA·SEM06/12H·DIN12/12A·FAP15/02H·LOZ20/02A·DUB01/03H·FK 09/03H·OFK13/03A·GRA22/03H·TEK27/03A·MAC05/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.800.400.670.470.93
vs Stronger (10)0.100.800.000.800.200.80
vs Similar (20)0.600.800.600.600.601.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stepojevac Vaga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stepojevac Vaga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stepojevac Vaga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
DUB (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEM (5)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
ZEM (8)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
GRA wins
1
Draws
0
SV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Grafičar vs Stepojevac Vaga · H/A from GRA
DateH/AGameScore
22/03/26HGRA Vs Stepojevac Vaga0-0
10/10/25AStepojevac Vaga Vs GRA0-1

GrafičarGrafičar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/26ATekstilac Odžaci Vs GRA0-0
28/03/26HGRA Vs OFK Vršac0-2
22/03/26HGRA Vs Stepojevac Vaga0-0
14/03/26AFK Trayal Vs GRA0-2
09/03/26HGRA Vs Dubočica2-1
28/02/26ALoznica Vs GRA1-0
23/02/26HGRA Vs FAP2-1
14/02/26ADinamo Jug Vs GRA1-1
13/12/25HGRA Vs Semendrija 19240-0
07/12/25AFK Vozdovac Vs GRA3-0

Stepojevac VagaStepojevac Vaga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/26AMacva Vs SV2-0
27/03/26HSV Vs Tekstilac Odžaci0-2
22/03/26AGrafičar Vs SV0-0
13/03/26HSV Vs OFK Vršac0-0
09/03/26HSV Vs FK Trayal2-2
01/03/26ADubočica Vs SV1-0
20/02/26HSV Vs Loznica0-0
15/02/26AFAP Vs SV2-2
12/12/25HSV Vs Dinamo Jug0-0
06/12/25ASemendrija 1924 Vs SV2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Grafičar
Grafičar
Serbia: Prva Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLD1.36
HomeDWWDL1.40
AwayLDLWD1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%32%32%
AVG goals2.222.282.16
Over 1.5 %74%80%68%
Over 2.5 %38%40%36%
Over 3.5 %18%16%20%
Scored1.101.280.92
Conceded1.121.001.24
BTTS52%60%44%
Clean Sheet30%28%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Stepojevac Vaga
Stepojevac Vaga
Serbia: Prva Liga
Recent: 0 Wins / 6 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLL0.73
HomeDDDDL1.07
AwayLDLDL0.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %13%20%7%
AVG goals2.101.872.33
Over 1.5 %63%60%67%
Over 2.5 %43%33%53%
Over 3.5 %17%20%13%
Scored0.770.870.67
Conceded1.331.001.67
BTTS50%47%53%
Clean Sheet23%33%13%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZemunZemun3570
57%
2.0
5533+22
2.5
71%
49%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2111.60.9
-
2MacvaMacva3566
54%
1.9
4729+18
2.2
71%
40%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.30.8
-
3FK VozdovacFK Vozdovac3565
54%
1.9
6029+31
2.5
71%
49%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.70.8
-
4Dinamo JugDinamo Jug3962
41%
1.6
4433+11
2.0
62%
33%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
5LoznicaLoznica3561
49%
1.7
3726+11
1.8
63%
26%
3%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.10.7
-
6Semendrija 1924Semendrija 19243959
44%
1.5
5339+14
2.4
67%
41%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.0
-
7Borac CacakBorac Cacak3954
36%
1.4
4340+3
2.1
59%
31%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.0
-
8GrafičarGrafičar3952
36%
1.3
4138+3
2.0
67%
36%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.11.0
-
9Tekstilac OdžaciTekstilac Odžaci3949
31%
1.3
4752-5
2.5
77%
49%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
10OFK VršacOFK Vršac3546
29%
1.3
3536-1
2.0
54%
34%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.01.0
-
11Jedinstvo UbJedinstvo Ub3544
31%
1.3
4652-6
2.8
77%
51%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.5
-
12Kabel Novi SadKabel Novi Sad3943
26%
1.1
3856-18
2.4
69%
46%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
13FAPFAP3940
26%
1.0
4158-17
2.5
74%
44%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
14DubočicaDubočica3937
21%
0.9
3960-21
2.5
77%
51%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.5
-
15FK TrayalFK Trayal3935
23%
0.9
4056-16
2.5
74%
38%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
16Stepojevac VagaStepojevac Vaga3929
15%
0.7
3160-29
2.3
69%
44%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.5
-
Serbia: Prva Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →

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