Grafićar are the clear favourites for this Prva Liga encounter, with the model assigning a 71% chance to a home win. Their recent 1-2 loss to Naftagas does little to dent the confidence, as the model still sees the home side’s 1.75 average goals for and 0.88 average goals against against weaker opposition as a decisive advantage. Teleoptik, meanwhile, have struggled on the road, conceding 2.67 goals on average against stronger teams, and their last draw 1-1 with Semendrija 1924 signals a cautious approach.
The model predicts an average of 3.6 goals, with the most likely total being three, and the single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Grafićar, carrying a 9.2% probability. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 71%, 17% and 12% respectively.
Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 98.1%, Under 7.5 at 96.9%, Home +2 handicap at 95.9%, Under 6.5 at 92.7%, Home over 0.5 goals at 92.6%, Away under 2.5 goals at 92.0%, Home or Draw at 88.4% and Home +1 handicap also at 88.4%. Each selection is presented with its exact probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Grafičar win
66.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik win
14.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Grafičar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.93
1.38
0.88
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
1.06
1.62
1.12
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Teleoptik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teleoptik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.17
0.67
1.67
2.00
2.67
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
2.17
0.67
1.67
2.00
2.67
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-33pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.1%
Under 1.5
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.5%
Under 2.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
50.7%
Under 3.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.0%
No
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.3%
1-1
8.0%
2-0
8.0%
3-1
7.8%
3-0
6.7%
1-0
5.5%
2-2
5.4%
4-1
5.0%
Grafičar goals ↓
Teleoptik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
2.1%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
1
5.5%
8.0%
4.2%
1.6%
0.5%
2
8.0%
9.3%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.7%
7.8%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
4
4.3%
5.0%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grafičar goals (down), columns = Teleoptik goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Grafičar is 0.17 points worse than Teleoptik in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Grafičar is 0.33 goals worse than Teleoptik in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Grafičar is 0.33 goals better than Teleoptik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Grafičar or Draw
85.2%
Avg Implied -
67%
19%
15%
covers Grafičar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grafičar or Teleoptik
81.3%
Avg Implied -
67%
19%
15%
covers Grafičar + Teleoptik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Teleoptik
33.5%
Avg Implied -
67%
19%
15%
covers Draw + Teleoptik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Grafičar over/under 0.5
Over
92.1%
Under
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5
Over
72.1%
Under
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5
Over
46.7%
Under
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 3.5
Over
25.1%
Under
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 0.5
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 1.5
Over
32.4%
Under
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 2.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Grafičar, so a minus line means Grafičar give that many goals of a start and Teleoptik receive them. At -1, Grafičar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Grafičar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Grafičar)
Grafičar -2
26.6%
Draw -2
19.3%
Teleoptik +2
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Grafičar)
Grafičar -1
45.9%
Draw -1
20.6%
Teleoptik +1
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Grafičar)
Grafičar +1
85.2%
Draw +1
9.0%
Teleoptik -1
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Grafičar)
Grafičar +2
94.3%
Draw +2
4.0%
Teleoptik -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grafičar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.37
0.56
0.38
0.21
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.29
0.50
0.12
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.44
0.44
0.62
0.62
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Teleoptik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teleoptik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.17
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grafičar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.94
0.62
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.64
0.88
0.75
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Teleoptik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teleoptik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
Grafičar's squad is €3m more valuable than Teleoptik's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Grafičar's attack is €1m more valuable than Teleoptik's (€1m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
Grafičar and Teleoptik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Grafičar's defence is €2m more valuable than Teleoptik's (€2m vs €0m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Cacak
Semendrija 1924
TSC Backa Topola
OFK Vršac
Javor
Dubočica
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Loznica
FK Vozdovac
OFK Bor 1919
Naftagas
Metalac GM
Jedinstvo Ub