This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.30
1.60
0.87
1.07
1.73
vs Stronger (9)
1.22
1.56
1.60
1.00
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (19)
1.21
1.21
1.60
0.80
0.78
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Grazer AK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.5%
Under 2.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.2%
Under 3.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
7.9%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.1%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
Grazer AK goals ↓
Ried goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
5.8%
4.3%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.9%
12%
7.1%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.3%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.1%
5.1%
3.2%
1.4%
0.4%
4
1.7%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grazer AK goals (down), columns = Ried goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.60
Rapid Vienna
2.40
Sturm Graz
1.60
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Grazer AK
0.80
Ried
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
SCR Altach
0.60
Grazer AK and Ried are level in average points per game (both 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rapid Vienna
3.00
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.80
WSG Wattens
1.40
Sturm Graz
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Ried
1.20
TSV Hartberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
SCR Altach
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
Grazer AK
0.40
Grazer AK is 0.80 goals worse than Ried in terms of goals scored per game (0.40 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lask Linz
0.40
Red Bull Salzburg
0.60
Sturm Graz
1.00
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.40
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.60
SCR Altach
1.60
Austria Lustenau
1.80
Austria Vienna
2.00
Ried
2.00
Grazer AK
2.60
Grazer AK is 0.60 goals worse than Ried in terms of goals conceded per game (2.60 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
66%
Lask Linz
58%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
55%
Ried
52%
Grazer AK
50%
SCR Altach
49%
Austria Vienna
45%
WSG Wattens
45%
TSV Hartberg
42%
Wolfsberger AC
42%
Austria Lustenau
41%
Grazer AK is 2.2 percentage points worse than Ried in terms of average possession (50% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Grazer AK
For 4.9 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ried
For 4.5 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Grazer AK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.1
8.7
3.1
3.5
2.8
24.6
24.2
25.0
vs Stronger (13)
10.9
11.8
10.2
2.5
2.3
2.7
23.6
21.2
25.4
vs Similar (36)
8.2
8.3
8.2
3.4
3.9
2.9
25.0
25.1
24.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
43%
35%
50%
44%
54%
35%
77%
76%
78%
% under line
57%
65%
50%
56%
46%
65%
23%
24%
22%
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.0
8.8
2.9
3.0
2.7
22.6
22.1
23.1
vs Stronger (16)
8.2
9.2
7.4
1.8
2.0
1.6
20.0
21.2
19.0
vs Similar (31)
9.7
10.2
9.0
3.5
3.5
3.6
23.7
22.3
25.3
vs Weaker (3)
13.0
-
13.0
1.3
-
1.3
22.0
-
22.0
% over line
47%
56%
38%
44%
48%
40%
53%
44%
62%
% under line
53%
44%
62%
56%
52%
60%
47%
56%
38%
This opponent (Grazer AK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lask Linz
10.3
Austria Vienna
10.1
WSG Wattens
10.1
Sturm Graz
10.0
TSV Hartberg
9.9
Austria Lustenau
9.8
Wolfsberger AC
9.7
Rapid Vienna
9.6
Red Bull Salzburg
9.4
Grazer AK
9.1
Ried
8.9
SCR Altach
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SCR Altach
5.0
Austria Lustenau
4.9
Sturm Graz
4.8
Wolfsberger AC
4.7
Ried
4.6
Grazer AK
4.6
TSV Hartberg
4.5
WSG Wattens
4.4
Austria Vienna
4.4
Rapid Vienna
4.2
Lask Linz
3.7
Red Bull Salzburg
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rapid Vienna
23.8
Sturm Graz
23.8
Grazer AK
23.3
Austria Lustenau
23.3
SCR Altach
23.0
Austria Vienna
22.9
Wolfsberger AC
22.6
Ried
22.4
WSG Wattens
22.3
TSV Hartberg
21.7
Lask Linz
21.0
Red Bull Salzburg
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.3%
Under 9.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
63.0%
Under 3.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
53.8%
Under 21.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Grazer AK or Draw
77.1%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Grazer AK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK or Ried
73.2%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Grazer AK + Ried
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ried
49.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Draw + Ried
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Grazer AK over/under 0.5
Over
80.9%
Under
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK over/under 1.5
Over
49.2%
Under
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK over/under 2.5
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK over/under 3.5
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 0.5
Over
65.0%
Under
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 1.5
Over
28.2%
Under
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 2.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Grazer AK, so a minus line means Grazer AK give that many goals of a start and Ried receive them. At -1, Grazer AK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Grazer AK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Grazer AK)
Grazer AK -2
11.8%
Draw -2
15.8%
Ried +2
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Grazer AK)
Grazer AK -1
27.6%
Draw -1
22.8%
Ried +1
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Grazer AK)
Grazer AK +1
77.1%
Draw +1
14.0%
Ried -1
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Grazer AK)
Grazer AK +2
91.1%
Draw +2
6.3%
Ried -2
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grazer AK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.86
0.43
0.31
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.57
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.60
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.50
0.83
0.25
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.60
0.20
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.67
0.60
0.20
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.42
0.60
0.20
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Grazer AK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grazer AK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grazer AK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
0.86
0.57
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.59
1.00
0.67
0.80
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
1.00
0.67
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.89
1.00
0.80
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.79
1.00
0.60
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Grazer AK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grazer AK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Grazer AK
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Donovan Pines20%
Alexander Hofleitner20%
Cican Stanković0%
Christian Lichtenberger0%
Peter Michorl0%
Tobias Koch0%
Anderson0%
Leon Klassen0%
Daniel Maderner0%
Mark Große0%
Matthias Gragger0%
Yannick Oberleitner0%
Beres Owusu0%
Liam Hermesh0%
Anthony Smits0%
Ismaël Guerti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Peter Michorl60%
Donovan Pines60%
Leon Klassen40%
Yannick Oberleitner33%
Tobias Koch25%
Anderson25%
Daniel Maderner20%
Beres Owusu20%
Alexander Hofleitner20%
Cican Stanković0%
Christian Lichtenberger0%
Mark Große0%
Matthias Gragger0%
Liam Hermesh0%
Anthony Smits0%
Ismaël Guerti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian Lichtenberger25%
Peter Michorl20%
Cican Stanković0%
Tobias Koch0%
Anderson0%
Leon Klassen0%
Donovan Pines0%
Daniel Maderner0%
Mark Große0%
Matthias Gragger0%
Yannick Oberleitner0%
Beres Owusu0%
Liam Hermesh0%
Anthony Smits0%
Ismaël Guerti0%
Alexander Hofleitner0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ismaël Guerti33%
Anderson25%
Matthias Gragger25%
Peter Michorl20%
Leon Klassen20%
Alexander Hofleitner20%
Cican Stanković0%
Christian Lichtenberger0%
Tobias Koch0%
Donovan Pines0%
Daniel Maderner0%
Mark Große0%
Yannick Oberleitner0%
Beres Owusu0%
Liam Hermesh0%
Anthony Smits0%
Ried
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Niama Pape Sissoko40%
Jussef Nasrawe25%
Stefan Schwab20%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi20%
Evan Eghosa20%
Ante Bajić0%
Martin Rasner0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Lukas Malicsek0%
Oliver Steurer0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Tobias Lund Jensen0%
Oliver Sorg0%
Joris Boguo0%
Tino Kusanović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Malicsek40%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi40%
Niama Pape Sissoko40%
Joris Boguo33%
Tino Kusanović33%
Tobias Lund Jensen25%
Martin Rasner20%
Stefan Schwab0%
Ante Bajić0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Oliver Steurer0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Oliver Sorg0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Jussef Nasrawe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ante Bajić40%
Jussef Nasrawe25%
Stefan Schwab20%
Martin Rasner0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Lukas Malicsek0%
Oliver Steurer0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi0%
Tobias Lund Jensen0%
Oliver Sorg0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Niama Pape Sissoko0%
Joris Boguo0%
Tino Kusanović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi20%
Niama Pape Sissoko20%
Stefan Schwab0%
Ante Bajić0%
Martin Rasner0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Lukas Malicsek0%
Oliver Steurer0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Tobias Lund Jensen0%
Oliver Sorg0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Joris Boguo0%
Tino Kusanović0%
Jussef Nasrawe0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
WW (22)
€7m
AL (22)
€5m
Grazer AK's squad is €2m more valuable than Ried's (€9m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
Grazer AK and Ried have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
RIE (8)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
Grazer AK's midfield is €1m less valuable than Ried's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
RIE (9)
€3m
AL (9)
€2m
Grazer AK's defence is €3m more valuable than Ried's (€6m vs €3m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
TSV Hartberg
Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau
SCR Altach
Austria Vienna