Grbalj are tipped to win the encounter with a 48 % chance, a clear edge over the 26 % draw and 26 % away win probabilities. The match is expected to see about 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 24 % of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.3 % probability. Grbalj, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, average 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, while Lovćen, on the road, manage 0.6 goals scored and concede 2.0. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.0 %), Under 6.5 (97.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.6 %), Under 5.5 (92.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (90.6 %), Home +2 handicap (89.1 %), Away under 2.5 goals (87.9 %) and Under 4.5 (83.0 %). Grbalj’s recent form shows a win after a 2-1 victory over Mogren, while Lovćen come off a 3-2 win against Jedinstvo.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Grbalj win
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lovćen win
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Grbalj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.20
1.73
0.93
1.47
1.47
vs Stronger (20)
1.45
1.40
1.64
0.82
1.22
2.11
vs Similar (5)
1.80
0.40
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
1.20
2.50
2.00
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lovćen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.40
0.94
1.31
1.43
1.50
vs Stronger (17)
1.59
1.18
1.25
1.12
1.89
1.22
vs Similar (13)
0.62
1.69
0.62
1.50
0.60
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.9%
Under 2.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.8%
Under 3.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.6%
No
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.1%
2-0
8.3%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
6.7%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
5.4%
Grbalj goals ↓
Lovćen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
6.1%
4.1%
1.6%
0.4%
1
9.1%
13%
6.7%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.5%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.5%
5.1%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.8%
2.1%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grbalj goals (down), columns = Lovćen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Jedinstvo
2.36
Grbalj
1.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.78
Kom
1.39
Berane
1.39
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.34
Lovćen
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.31
Mogren
1.25
Zeta
1.00
Grbalj is 0.53 points better than Lovćen in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Jedinstvo
2.18
Grbalj
1.75
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.42
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.42
Kom
1.31
Berane
1.25
Mogren
1.16
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.08
Lovćen
0.94
Zeta
0.50
Grbalj is 0.81 goals better than Lovćen in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zeta
0.50
Jedinstvo
0.73
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.94
Berane
1.00
Grbalj
1.17
Kom
1.19
Lovćen
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.28
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.29
Mogren
1.39
Grbalj is 0.08 goals better than Lovćen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Grbalj or Draw
74.3%
Avg Implied -
47%
27%
26%
covers Grbalj + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grbalj or Lovćen
73.0%
Avg Implied -
47%
27%
26%
covers Grbalj + Lovćen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lovćen
52.7%
Avg Implied -
47%
27%
26%
covers Draw + Lovćen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Grbalj over/under 0.5
Over
80.1%
Under
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5
Over
22.1%
Under
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 3.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 0.5
Over
68.0%
Under
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5
Over
31.5%
Under
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Grbalj, so a minus line means Grbalj give that many goals of a start and Lovćen receive them. At -1, Grbalj must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Grbalj win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Grbalj)
Grbalj -2
10.6%
Draw -2
14.7%
Lovćen +2
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Grbalj)
Grbalj -1
25.3%
Draw -1
22.0%
Lovćen +1
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Grbalj)
Grbalj +1
74.3%
Draw +1
15.1%
Lovćen -1
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Grbalj)
Grbalj +2
89.5%
Draw +2
7.3%
Lovćen -2
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grbalj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
0.65
0.55
0.36
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
1.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lovćen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.31
0.62
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (17)
0.53
0.59
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.23
0.85
0.12
0.75
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.8%
Under 0.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.9%
Under 1.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.5%
Under 2.5
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grbalj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.7%
Under
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grbalj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
1.07
0.60
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (20)
0.85
0.75
1.09
0.45
0.56
1.11
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
1.00
1.50
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lovćen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.62
0.69
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (17)
1.06
0.59
0.75
0.62
1.33
0.56
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.85
0.50
0.75
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.6%
Under 0.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.7%
Under 1.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.5%
Under 2.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grbalj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.6%
Under
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.7%
Under
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Grbalj and Lovćen have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Grbalj and Lovćen have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (10)
€1m
R( (2)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Grbalj and Lovćen have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Montenegro: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Mladost Lješkopolje
Zeta
Mogren
Kom
Iskra (Montenegro)
Jedinstvo
Rudar (Montenegro)
Berane