PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Grbalj vs Mogren Prediction & Stats

Date: 11/10/2026
Time: 14:00
Grbalj
Grbalj
Vs
34%
28%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mogren
Mogren
Montenegro: Second League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The match between Grbalj and Mogren is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. Grbalj, playing at home against a stronger side, has averaged 1.64 goals scored and 0.82 conceded, while Mogren, on the road against a weaker opponent, has posted 3.0 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most likely total being 2, though the most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.3%. Home win probability stands at 34%, a draw at 28%, and an away win at 39%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.3%, Under 6.5 at 97.8%, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.3%, Under 5.5 at 94.0%, Under 4.5 at 85.7%, Home under 2.5 goals at 85.3%, and Away +2 handicap at 84.6%. Grbalj’s recent form shows a draw after a 0-0 stalemate with Mladost Lješkopolje, while Mogren comes off a 3-0 win over Rudar (Montenegro). The balance of the contest remains finely poised, but the edge lies with Mogren.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Grbalj win
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mogren win
38.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GrbaljGrbalj

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L22D20W24L20W00D02L11D21W00DA·MLA02/05H·ISK10/05A·KOM16/05A·OTR20/05H·INT24/05A·BOK29/05H·BOK03/06H·ZET15/08A·MOG23/08H·MLA30/08← First LeagueSecond League →
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.201.730.931.471.47
vs Stronger (20)1.451.401.640.821.222.11
vs Similar (5)1.800.401.500.502.000.33
vs Weaker (5)2.001.202.502.001.670.67
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mogren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MogrenMogren

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W12L30WA·KOM16/08H·GRB23/08A·RUD29/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.331.001.002.003.000.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (3)2.331.001.002.003.000.50
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.7%
Under 2.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 3.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-2
8.6%
0-1
8.0%
2-1
8.0%
0-0
7.7%
1-0
7.3%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
5.7%
Grbalj goals ↓
Mogren goals →
01234
07.7%8.0%6.6%3.1%1.1%
17.3%13%8.6%4.1%1.5%
25.6%8.0%5.7%2.7%1.0%
32.4%3.5%2.5%1.2%0.4%
40.8%1.1%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grbalj goals (down), columns = Mogren goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Jedinstvo
2.36
Grbalj
1.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.78
Kom
1.39
Berane
1.39
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.34
Lovćen
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.31
Mogren
1.25
Zeta
1.00
Grbalj is 0.61 points better than Mogren in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Jedinstvo
2.18
Grbalj
1.75
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.42
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.42
Kom
1.31
Berane
1.25
Mogren
1.16
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.08
Lovćen
0.94
Zeta
0.50
Grbalj is 0.59 goals better than Mogren in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.16).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zeta
0.50
Jedinstvo
0.73
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.94
Berane
1.00
Grbalj
1.17
Kom
1.19
Lovćen
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.28
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.29
Mogren
1.39
Grbalj is 0.22 goals better than Mogren in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Grbalj or Draw
61.5%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
39%
covers Grbalj + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grbalj or Mogren
72.0%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
39%
covers Grbalj + Mogren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mogren
66.5%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
39%
covers Draw + Mogren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Grbalj over/under 0.5
Over
73.2%
Under
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5
Over
37.9%
Under
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 0.5
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 1.5
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 2.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Grbalj, so a minus line means Grbalj give that many goals of a start and Mogren receive them. At -1, Grbalj must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Grbalj win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Grbalj)
Grbalj -2
5.4%
Draw -2
10.0%
Mogren +2
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Grbalj)
Grbalj -1
15.4%
Draw -1
18.1%
Mogren +1
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Grbalj)
Grbalj +1
61.5%
Draw +1
19.8%
Mogren -1
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Grbalj)
Grbalj +2
81.2%
Draw +2
11.7%
Mogren -2
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GrbaljGrbalj

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D00D22D10W00D01L01L00D00DA·MLA02/05H·ISK10/05A·KOM16/05A·OTR20/05H·INT24/05A·BOK29/05H·BOK03/06H·ZET15/08A·MOG23/08H·MLA30/08← First LeagueSecond League →
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.570.670.330.670.80
vs Stronger (20)0.600.650.550.360.671.00
vs Similar (5)0.800.200.500.001.000.33
vs Weaker (5)0.800.601.500.500.330.67
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Mogren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MogrenMogren

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W00D10WA·KOM16/08H·GRB23/08A·RUD29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.330.000.002.000.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (3)1.330.330.000.002.000.50
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grbalj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GrbaljGrbalj

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W11D20W02L10W00D01L10W21W00DA·MLA02/05H·ISK10/05A·KOM16/05A·OTR20/05H·INT24/05A·BOK29/05H·BOK03/06H·ZET15/08A·MOG23/08H·MLA30/08← First LeagueSecond League →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.631.070.600.800.67
vs Stronger (20)0.850.751.090.450.561.11
vs Similar (5)1.000.201.000.501.000.00
vs Weaker (5)1.200.601.001.501.330.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Mogren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MogrenMogren

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L20WA·KOM16/08H·GRB23/08A·RUD29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.671.002.001.000.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.002.001.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grbalj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.3%-------
Under 6.597.8%-------
Home under 3.5 goals95.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals94.3%-------
Under 5.594.0%-------
Under 4.585.7%-------
Home under 2.5 goals85.3%-------
Away +2 handicap84.6%-------
Away under 2.5 goals82.7%-------
Home +2 handicap81.2%-------
Over 1.577.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals76.0%-------
Home over 0.5 goals73.2%-------
Home or Away72.0%-------
Under 3.570.5%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (10)
€1m
R( (2)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
GRB wins
0
Draws
0
MOG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Grbalj vs Mogren · H/A from GRB
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/26AMogren Vs GRB1-2

GrbaljGrbalj

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HGRB Vs Mladost Lješkopolje0-0
23/08/26AMogren Vs GRB1-2
15/08/26HGRB Vs Zeta1-1
03/06/26HGRB Vs Bokelj0-2
29/05/26ABokelj Vs GRB0-0
24/05/26HGRB Vs Internacional Podgorica2-0
20/05/26AOtrant-Olympic Vs GRB4-2
16/05/26AKom Vs GRB0-2
10/05/26HGRB Vs Iskra (Montenegro)2-2
02/05/26AMladost Lješkopolje Vs GRB3-2

MogrenMogren

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ARudar (Montenegro) Vs MOG0-3
23/08/26HMOG Vs Grbalj1-2
16/08/26AKom Vs MOG1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Grbalj
Grbalj
Montenegro: Second League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWD1.62
HomeDWLDD2.04
AwayLWLDW1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%60%32%
AVG goals2.702.802.60
Over 1.5 %86%84%88%
Over 2.5 %42%48%36%
Over 3.5 %24%28%20%
Scored1.501.801.20
Conceded1.201.001.40
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Mogren
Mogren
Montenegro: Second League
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLW2.00
HomeL0.00
AwayWW3.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%0%100%
AVG goals3.333.003.50
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %100%100%100%
Over 3.5 %33%0%50%
Scored2.331.003.00
Conceded1.002.000.50
BTTS67%100%50%
Clean Sheet33%0%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Mladost LješkopoljeMladost Lješkopolje37
67%
2.3
51+4
2.0
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.3
-
2ZetaZeta37
67%
2.3
41+3
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.3
-
3MogrenMogren36
67%
2.0
73+4
3.3
100%
100%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
4LovćenLovćen36
67%
2.0
67-1
4.3
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.3
-
5GrbaljGrbalj35
33%
1.7
32+1
1.7
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.7
-
6KomKom33
33%
1.0
45-1
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
7Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)33
33%
1.0
12-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.30.7
-
8JedinstvoJedinstvo33
33%
1.0
35-2
2.7
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.7
-
9Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)33
33%
1.0
15-4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.31.7
-
10BeraneBerane30
0%
0.0
25-3
2.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
Montenegro: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →

← all matches