Guilsfield are the clear favourites, with a 44% chance of victory against Gresford Athletic’s 28% home-side win probability and a 28% draw chance. The match is expected to see about 2.6 goals, with the most likely total being two. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 13.5% probability. Gresford, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Guilsfield, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.0 conceded against similar teams. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 74.7% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.3%. The model’s selection for the match outcome is an away win, and the overall probabilities are 28% for a home win, 28% for a draw, and 44% for an away win.
The pre-match favourite, Guilsfield, was tipped to win with a 44% probability, yet the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. Gresford Athletic, after five consecutive defeats, struggled to break the stalemate, while Guilsfield, coming off a 4-0 victory, failed to convert their momentum. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals, at 74.7%, missed, whereas the Under 3.5 choice, at 73.3%, proved correct. The final score of 0-0 confirms the unexpected outcome, underscoring the volatility of the Championship fixtures.
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.78 | 1.33 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 4.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 1.60 | 0.80 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 2.33 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Guilsfield goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 14% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.22 | 0.56 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.22 | 0.56 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 44% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 1.40 | 0.40 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.56 | 0.78 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.56 | 0.78 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 56% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.60 | 1.40 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 73.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Gresford Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/22 | A | 3-2 | |
| 22/10/22 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/10/22 | H | 1-4 | |
| 01/10/22 | H | 0-1 | |
| 24/09/22 | H | 1-2 | |
| 29/08/22 | A | 3-1 | |
| 19/08/22 | A | 0-0 | |
| 12/08/22 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/08/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 30/07/22 | A | 1-0 |
Guilsfield| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/22 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/10/22 | H | 2-3 | |
| 01/10/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/09/22 | H | 0-1 | |
| 06/09/22 | H | 1-2 | |
| 29/08/22 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/08/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 13/08/22 | H | 1-3 | |
| 02/08/22 | A | 1-1 | |
| 30/07/22 | H | 4-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 83 | 90% | 2.8 | 101 | 24 | +77 | 4.2 | 100% | 77% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Holywell | 30 | 79 | 87% | 2.6 | 75 | 22 | +53 | 3.2 | 93% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 3 | Barry Town | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 78 | 25 | +53 | 3.4 | 80% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Llandudno | 30 | 66 | 67% | 2.2 | 70 | 23 | +47 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 62 | 63% | 2.1 | 63 | 34 | +29 | 3.2 | 77% | 57% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Briton Ferry | 30 | 60 | 57% | 2.0 | 72 | 33 | +39 | 3.5 | 87% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Guilsfield | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 58 | 37 | +21 | 3.2 | 80% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 52 | 53% | 1.7 | 66 | 41 | +25 | 3.6 | 80% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 51 | 53% | 1.7 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 3.0 | 83% | 63% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 64 | 53 | +11 | 3.9 | 87% | 70% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 11 | Afan Lido | 30 | 47 | 43% | 1.6 | 61 | 52 | +9 | 3.8 | 93% | 67% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 12 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 66 | 48 | +18 | 3.8 | 93% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 46 | 40 | +6 | 2.9 | 77% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 14 | Cefn Druids AFC | 30 | 43 | 43% | 1.4 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | - |
| 15 | Buckley Town | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 38 | 33% | 1.3 | 62 | 53 | +9 | 3.8 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 17 | Pontardawe Town | 30 | 37 | 40% | 1.2 | 51 | 73 | -22 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | - |
| 18 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | - |
| 19 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 2.5 | 70% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | - |
| 20 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 33 | 27% | 1.1 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 21 | Porthmadog | 30 | 33 | 33% | 1.1 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 3.0 | 87% | 63% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Taffs Well | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 3.5 | 80% | 57% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Goytre United | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 3.7 | 93% | 67% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Abergavenny Town | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 35 | 60 | -25 | 3.2 | 80% | 53% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 25 | Llanidloes Town | 30 | 27 | 23% | 0.9 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 3.5 | 93% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Trefelin | 30 | 27 | 23% | 0.9 | 47 | 70 | -23 | 3.9 | 97% | 83% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | - |
| 27 | Chirk AAA | 30 | 26 | 17% | 0.9 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 2.7 | 77% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | - |
| 28 | Swansea University | 30 | 26 | 20% | 0.9 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | - |
| 29 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 24 | 23% | 0.8 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 3.3 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | - |
| 30 | Conwy Borough | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 33 | 64 | -31 | 3.2 | 83% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.1 | - |
| 31 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 16 | 10% | 0.5 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 3.4 | 93% | 67% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 32 | Holyhead Hotspur | 30 | 15 | 7% | 0.5 | 24 | 69 | -45 | 3.1 | 90% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.3 | - |