Gresford Athletic’s recent five matches have been a string of defeats, while Guilsfield return from a win that saw them score four against Penrhyncoch. The model sees a high-scoring game, with an expected 3.7 goals and a most likely total of three goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 for Guilsfield, with a 9.3% chance. The favoured result is an away win, with a 58% probability, while a home win and a draw each carry 21%. Gresford typically scores 1.7 goals and concedes 2.7 at home against similar opposition; Guilsfield, playing away, averages 1.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 88.7% and Over 2.5 goals at 70.6%. The probabilities for the match outcome are: home win 21%, draw 21%, away win 58%.
The pre-match favourite, Guilsfield, failed to deliver, with Gresford Athletic snatching a 1-0 win after a run of five defeats. The model had tipped an away victory at 58% probability, but the result was a home win, so the call was wrong. The model’s selections were also off: Over 1.5 goals, projected at 88.7%, missed, as did Over 2.5 at 70.6%. Gresford’s form had been bleak, yet they held on to extend their losing streak, while Guilsfield, fresh from a 4-0 win, could not convert the advantage. The final score of 1-0 confirmed the upset.
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 2.07 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.31 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.43 | 2.26 | 1.70 | 2.70 | 1.23 | 1.92 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.29 | 1.43 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.60 | 1.76 | 1.59 | 2.00 | 1.62 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.88 | 1.50 | 1.89 | 1.44 | 1.86 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.86 | 1.71 | 1.62 | 1.75 | 2.17 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| Guilsfield goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.0% |
| 1 | 2.7% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 4.1% |
| 2 | 2.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| 3 | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.64 | 1.14 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.61 | 0.96 | 0.70 | 1.20 | 0.54 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.76 | 0.59 | 1.08 | 0.85 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.81 | 0.69 | 0.89 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.86 | 1.36 | 0.75 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.83 | 1.30 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.69 | 1.15 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.77 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.06 | 0.81 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 1.14 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 70.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 06/09/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 14/02/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 05/11/22 | H | 0-0 |
Gresford Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/24 | A | 4-0 | |
| 26/08/24 | H | 0-3 | |
| 23/08/24 | A | 5-1 | |
| 17/08/24 | A | 2-4 | |
| 09/08/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 06/08/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 26/07/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 13/04/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 01/04/24 | A | 0-1 |
Guilsfield| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 26/08/24 | H | 3-1 | |
| 23/08/24 | A | 1-3 | |
| 17/08/24 | A | 1-4 | |
| 10/08/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 27/07/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 19/04/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 16/04/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 13/04/24 | H | 0-2 | |
| 06/04/24 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 88 | 22 | +66 | 3.7 | 87% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Airbus UK | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 102 | 30 | +72 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 60% | 2.1 | 64 | 25 | +39 | 3.0 | 87% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 59 | 57% | 2.0 | 53 | 33 | +20 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 57 | 60% | 1.9 | 56 | 41 | +15 | 3.2 | 87% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Newport City | 30 | 54 | 53% | 1.8 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 2.7 | 73% | 57% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Trefelin | 30 | 53 | 50% | 1.8 | 54 | 41 | +13 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 53 | 53% | 1.8 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 3.3 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 43% | 1.7 | 50 | 38 | +12 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Llandudno | 30 | 49 | 50% | 1.6 | 65 | 60 | +5 | 4.2 | 97% | 77% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Buckley Town | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 48 | 47 | +1 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 40% | 1.5 | 55 | 44 | +11 | 3.3 | 83% | 57% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Guilsfield | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 14 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 90% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 15 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 52 | 48 | +4 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 2.6 | 73% | 43% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | - |
| 17 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 68 | 62 | +6 | 4.3 | 97% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 18 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 37 | 34 | +3 | 2.4 | 67% | 37% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 19 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 20 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 44 | 67 | -23 | 3.7 | 80% | 63% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 21 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 36 | 37% | 1.2 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 3.2 | 87% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 22 | Afan Lido | 30 | 34 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 23 | Caersws | 30 | 34 | 33% | 1.1 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 3.4 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 25 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 3.4 | 77% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 29 | 27% | 1.0 | 40 | 59 | -19 | 3.3 | 77% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 27 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 46 | 64 | -18 | 3.7 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 28 | Penrhiwceiber Rangers | 30 | 28 | 23% | 0.9 | 30 | 57 | -27 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | - |
| 29 | Goytre United | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | - |
| 30 | Taffs Well | 30 | 15 | 10% | 0.5 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 3.6 | 93% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | - |
| 31 | Llay Miners Welfare | 30 | 14 | 10% | 0.5 | 35 | 84 | -49 | 4.0 | 90% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 32 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 13 | 13% | 0.4 | 38 | 105 | -67 | 4.8 | 90% | 80% | 70% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 3.5 | - |