Gresford Athletic’s recent five games have left them on a five-game losing streak, while Mold Alexandra come off a four-game winning run, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The model favours an away win, with a 53% chance for Mold, 25% for Gresford, and 22% for a draw. The expected total is 3.6 goals, centring on a 3-goal total with a 21% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.4% chance. Gresford average 1.38 goals scored and 2.38 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Mold averages 1.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded away. Suggested selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4%, Under 7.5 at 97.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.1%, Under 6.5 at 92.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 91.9%, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 90.2%, and Away +2 handicap at 88.7%.
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.92 | 2.17 | 1.22 | 2.72 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.18 | 2.64 | 1.38 | 2.38 | 1.07 | 2.79 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 2.38 | 2.12 | 3.00 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.53 | 1.41 | 1.29 | 1.54 | 1.85 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.78 | 1.33 | 1.73 | 1.18 | 1.86 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.00 | 1.83 | 0.83 | 1.50 | 1.17 | 2.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Mold Alexandra goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.5% |
| 1 | 3.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
| 2 | 2.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| 3 | 1.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.64 | 0.82 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.93 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 0.35 | 0.85 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.73 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 1.77 | 1.17 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.55 | 1.82 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 0.43 | 1.86 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.38 | 1.62 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 1.03 | 0.82 | 0.94 | 0.69 | 1.15 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.94 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 98.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 97.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 97.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 94.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 92.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 91.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 90.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 88.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 88.3% | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | +3.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 88.2% | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | +7.0% |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 85.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 84.5% | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | -1.8% |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 83.5% | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.13 | - | - | +3.3% |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 82.9% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +0.5% |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 82.3% | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.05 | - | - | - | -3.4% |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 81.2% | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | -0.4% |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 77.9% | 1.30 | 1.32 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +8.1% |
| Home or Away | 77.6% | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.15 | -0.5% |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 77.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 76.4% | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | +10.1% |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 76.4% | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.20 | - | - | +0.7% |
| Draw or Away | 75.3% | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.12 | -5.0% |
| Away +1 handicap | 75.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 70.8% | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.21 | - | - | -3.8% |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 05/09/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/03/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 08/11/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 23/03/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/11/23 | H | 1-5 | |
| 25/03/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 12/08/22 | H | 0-1 |
Gresford Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 16/08/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 4-1 |
Mold Alexandra| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 4-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |