In the upcoming Wales: FAW Championship match between Gresford Athletic and Newtown AFC, recent form tells us that Newtown AFC is on a 3-game winning run, having defeated Penrhyncoch 5-0 last time out, while Gresford Athletic has suffered 5 consecutive defeats. This high-scoring match is expected to produce 3.4 goals on average. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring 22% of the time, with 1-1 being the most likely score.
Gresford Athletic has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.38 goals and conceding 1.88, while Newtown AFC has averaged 1.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the away win, with a 39% chance of occurring, while the home win and draw probabilities are 36% and 25%, respectively. The model's selection for the match is the away win, which is the most likely result. The model also suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals, which has an 86.1% chance of occurring, with an edge of 5%.
The win extends Gresford Athletic's run of consecutive defeats to six after a 0-3 loss to Newtown AFC. The actual result was an away win, which matches the model's call, correct in its prediction of the favoured outcome. The model's selection, an away win, had a pre-match probability of 39%.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a pre-match probability of 86.1%, while the most likely total goals was 3, with a 22% probability. The most likely scores were 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1, with respective probabilities of 10.7%, 8.4% and 8%.
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.97 | 2.70 | 2.00 | 2.08 | 1.94 | 3.18 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.68 | 2.59 | 1.44 | 1.78 | 1.85 | 3.15 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.75 | 2.25 | 3.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 1.40 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.42 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 2.33 | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Newtown AFC goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 4.7% | 11% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.97 | 0.69 | 0.77 | 1.06 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.77 | 1.05 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.92 | 1.38 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.58 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.83 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.73 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 0.88 | 2.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.91 | 1.55 | 0.89 | 1.22 | 0.92 | 1.77 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.50 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.97 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.83 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 1.08 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86.1% | 1.09 | 1.11 | 1.10 | 1.07 | - | - | +4.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 31/10/25 | H | 1-2 |
Gresford Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/02/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 13/02/26 | A | 7-1 |
Newtown AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 24/03/26 | H | 6-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 27/02/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | Brickfield Rangers | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 4 | Porthmadog | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Bala Town | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | - |
| 10 | Mold Alexandra | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 11 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 12 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 5.3 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 13 | Newport City | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 14 | Afan Lido | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Guilsfield | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 16 | Rhyl | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3.0 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 17 | Ynyshir Albions | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 18 | Ruthin Town | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Caersws | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3.7 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Caerau (Ely) | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 5.2 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | - |
| 22 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Pontardawe Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 26 | Llanuwchllyn | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | - |
| 27 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Buckley Town | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.3 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |