Gresford Athletic’s recent five-game slide, ending with a 0-2 defeat, contrasts sharply with Rhyl’s win-returning form that saw them beat Denbigh Town 3-1. The model therefore favours an away win, assigning 38% to Rhyl, 37% to Gresford and 25% to a draw. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring encounter, with the most probable total of three goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.4% chance. Gresford, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 3.0 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while Rhyl, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.2%), Under 6.5 (95.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.8%), Under 5.5 (89.1%), Over 1.5 (84.3%), Away +2 handicap (81.2%) and Home +2 handicap (80.6%). Each probability is expressed as a percentage, and no other outcomes are mentioned.
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.92 | 2.17 | 1.22 | 2.72 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.18 | 2.64 | 1.38 | 2.38 | 1.07 | 2.79 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 2.38 | 2.12 | 3.00 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Rhyl| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.70 | 2.06 | 1.47 | 1.15 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 1.75 | 1.50 | 2.12 | 1.38 | 1.25 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.50 | 4.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Rhyl goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 5.3% | 11% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.64 | 0.82 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.93 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Rhyl| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.76 | 0.41 | 0.38 | 0.85 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 0.64 | 0.57 | 0.81 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 1.77 | 1.17 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.55 | 1.82 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 0.43 | 1.86 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.38 | 1.62 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Rhyl| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.10 | 1.29 | 1.06 | 0.77 | 1.15 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 1.11 | 0.93 | 1.31 | 0.94 | 0.83 | 0.92 |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.50 | 3.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 98.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 95.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 92.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 91.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 89.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 84.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 81.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 80.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 80.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 79.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 78.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 77.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 77.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 74.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 29/11/25 | H | 2-2 |
Gresford Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 16/08/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 4-1 |
Rhyl| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 07/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 24/03/26 | A | 6-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |