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Grobiņa vs Dinamo Rīga Result & Analysis

Date: 07/04/2023
Time: 10:00
Final 1-0
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Vs
80%
12%
8%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dinamo Rīga
Dinamo Rīga
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Grobiņa win✓ Hit
80.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
11.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga win✗ Miss
8.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-700D32W40W50W12L72W11D60W32W53WH·FS 04/09A·TUK11/09A·SAL17/09H·DIN01/10A·JDF08/10H·SMI16/10A·SKA22/10H·PRO29/10A·SAL05/11H·RIG13/11
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
3.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.271.504.001.462.541.54
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)3.401.504.001.602.801.40
vs Weaker (6)2.831.504.001.001.672.00
Clean sheet %35% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Rīga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L02L10W05L05L05L01L11D23L03LA·RĒZ11/09H·FS 18/09A·SAL25/09A·GRO01/10H·SAL09/10A·TUK15/10H·JDF23/10H·SMI30/10A·SKA05/11H·PRO13/11
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.652.190.691.920.622.46
vs Stronger (6)0.832.670.672.331.003.00
vs Similar (14)0.292.210.292.000.292.43
vs Weaker (6)1.331.671.671.331.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

8%15%23%31%1%04%111%216%319%417%531%6+
The model estimates around 4.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (31%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
94.8%
Under 1.5
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
83.8%
Under 2.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
67.6%
Under 3.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.4%
No
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
8.0%
3-0
7.0%
4-1
6.9%
2-1
6.9%
4-0
6.0%
2-0
6.0%
5-1
4.8%
3-2
4.6%
Grobiņa goals ↓
Dinamo Rīga goals →
01234
01.4%0.8%0.7%0.3%0.1%
13.1%4.4%2.3%0.9%0.2%
26.0%6.9%4.0%1.5%0.4%
37.0%8.0%4.6%1.7%0.5%
46.0%6.9%4.0%1.5%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grobiņa goals (down), columns = Dinamo Rīga goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Grobiņa
2.54
Riga FC II
2.44
Skanste
2.19
JDFS Alberts
1.81
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Rīgas FS II
1.42
Beitar
1.32
Tukums II
1.27
JFK Ventspils
1.08
Valmiera II
1.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.88
Smiltene
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.82
Rēzekne FA
0.40
Grobiņa is 1.72 points better than Dinamo Rīga in terms of average points per game (2.54 vs 0.82).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga FC II
3.28
Grobiņa
2.73
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Rīgas FS II
2.23
Skanste
2.23
Beitar
1.64
Tukums II
1.58
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.38
Dinamo Rīga
1.23
Smiltene
1.19
Valmiera II
1.15
JFK Ventspils
0.84
Rēzekne FA
0.60
Grobiņa is 1.50 goals better than Dinamo Rīga in terms of goals scored per game (2.73 vs 1.23).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga FC II
0.60
Grobiņa
0.65
Skanste
0.92
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.16
JDFS Alberts
1.38
Valmiera II
1.54
Rīgas FS II
1.62
Tukums II
2.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.35
Dinamo Rīga
2.45
Smiltene
2.58
Beitar
2.64
Rēzekne FA
3.12
Grobiņa is 1.80 goals better than Dinamo Rīga in terms of goals conceded per game (0.65 vs 2.45).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D10W20W01L31W10W20W21W30WH·FS 04/09A·TUK11/09A·SAL17/09H·DIN01/10A·JDF08/10H·SMI16/10A·SKA22/10H·PRO29/10A·SAL05/11H·RIG13/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.540.621.920.541.150.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.650.601.900.701.400.50
vs Weaker (6)1.170.672.000.000.331.33
Clean sheet %54% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Rīga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L01L00D02L02L02L00D01L11DH·RĪG03/09A·RĒZ11/09H·FS 18/09A·SAL25/09A·GRO01/10H·SAL09/10A·TUK15/10H·JDF23/10H·SMI30/10A·SKA05/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.211.120.361.000.081.23
vs Stronger (6)0.331.330.331.000.331.67
vs Similar (12)0.081.250.201.200.001.29
vs Weaker (6)0.330.670.670.670.000.67
Clean sheet %29% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D21W30W30W11D41W01L40W11D23LH·FS 04/09A·TUK11/09A·SAL17/09H·DIN01/10A·JDF08/10H·SMI16/10A·SKA22/10H·PRO29/10A·SAL05/11H·RIG13/11
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.882.080.921.380.85
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.750.902.100.901.400.90
vs Weaker (6)1.670.832.001.001.330.67
Clean sheet %38% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Rīga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L01L01L10W03L03L03L01L10W12LH·RĪG03/09A·RĒZ11/09H·FS 18/09A·SAL25/09A·GRO01/10H·SAL09/10A·TUK15/10H·JDF23/10H·SMI30/10A·SKA05/11
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.120.451.000.541.23
vs Stronger (6)0.501.330.331.330.671.33
vs Similar (12)0.251.080.201.000.291.14
vs Weaker (6)1.001.001.000.671.001.33
Clean sheet %42% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.594.8%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.583.8%-------✗ Miss
Home win80.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
GRO wins
0
Draws
0
DR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Grobiņa vs Dinamo Rīga · H/A from GRO
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/22HGRO Vs Dinamo Rīga5-0
22/05/22ADinamo Rīga Vs GRO0-3

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/11/22HGRO Vs Riga FC II5-3
05/11/22ASalaspils Vs GRO2-3
29/10/22HGRO Vs Progress / AFA Olaine6-0
22/10/22ASkanste Vs GRO1-1
16/10/22HGRO Vs Smiltene7-2
08/10/22AJDFS Alberts Vs GRO2-1
01/10/22HGRO Vs Dinamo Rīga5-0
17/09/22ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs GRO0-4
11/09/22ATukums II Vs GRO2-3
04/09/22HGRO Vs FS Jelgava0-0

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/11/22HDR Vs Progress / AFA Olaine0-3
05/11/22ASkanste Vs DR3-2
30/10/22HDR Vs Smiltene1-1
23/10/22HDR Vs JDFS Alberts0-1
15/10/22ATukums II Vs DR5-0
09/10/22HDR Vs Saldus SS/Leevon0-5
01/10/22AGrobiņa Vs DR5-0
25/09/22ASalaspils Vs DR0-1
18/09/22HDR Vs FS Jelgava0-2
11/09/22ARēzekne FA Vs DR3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW2.04
HomeDWWWW2.15
AwayWWLDW1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %65%69%62%
AVG goals4.775.464.08
Over 1.5 %92%85%100%
Over 2.5 %88%85%92%
Over 3.5 %73%77%69%
Scored3.274.002.54
Conceded1.501.461.54
BTTS58%54%62%
Clean Sheet35%38%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Dinamo Rīga
Dinamo Rīga
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL0.85
HomeLLLDL0.85
AwayLWLLL0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %23%23%23%
AVG goals2.852.623.08
Over 1.5 %69%62%77%
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Over 3.5 %35%31%38%
Scored0.650.690.62
Conceded2.191.922.46
BTTS27%23%31%
Clean Sheet23%31%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GrobiņaGrobiņa2666
81%
2.5
7117+54
3.4
85%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.70.7
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2561
76%
2.4
8215+67
3.9
84%
72%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.30.6
-
3SkansteSkanste2657
69%
2.2
5824+34
3.2
81%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.9
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2647
50%
1.8
6036+24
3.7
88%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
5Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2640
46%
1.5
4028+12
2.6
77%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2637
42%
1.4
5842+16
3.8
81%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.6
-
7Tukums IITukums II2633
38%
1.3
4154-13
3.7
81%
77%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
8BeitarBeitar2533
40%
1.3
4166-25
4.3
88%
76%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.6
-
9Valmiera IIValmiera II2628
27%
1.1
3040-10
2.7
69%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2527
28%
1.1
2129-8
2.0
56%
28%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
11Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2623
19%
0.9
3661-25
3.7
85%
58%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
12SmilteneSmiltene2622
23%
0.8
3167-36
3.8
92%
85%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
13Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga2218
23%
0.8
2754-27
3.7
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.5
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2510
8%
0.4
1578-63
3.7
84%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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