Gudja United’s recent form shows a 2-game winning run, yet their home scoring average of 1.0 and conceding 1.15 against stronger opponents suggests a fragile defence. Melita, on the other hand, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on the road against weaker sides, a stark contrast that fuels the model’s 71 % chance of an away win. The most likely result is therefore an away victory, a 0-2 scoreline with a 11.2 % probability, while the expected total of 3.3 goals points to a high-scoring affair. The model predicts a 3-goal total with a 22 % chance, reinforcing the expectation of a lively match. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 11 %, 18 % and 71 % respectively. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (98.9 %), Under 7.5 (98.2 %), Away +2 handicap (96.6 %), Under 6.5 (95.2 %), Home under 2.5 goals (94.5 %), Away over 0.5 goals (90.9 %), Draw or Away (89.3 %) and Away +1 handicap (89.3 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gudja United win
6.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
13.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Melita win
80.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gudja United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.27
1.00
1.19
1.79
1.36
vs Stronger (27)
1.41
1.26
1.00
1.15
1.79
1.36
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.33
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Melita
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.63
1.67
1.25
1.28
1.89
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.09
1.61
1.56
1.33
0.79
1.79
vs Weaker (7)
2.57
1.71
2.00
1.00
3.00
2.25
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.1%
Under 1.5
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.8%
Under 2.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.1%
Under 3.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.5%
0-3
10.4%
1-2
8.2%
1-3
8.0%
0-4
7.6%
0-1
6.6%
1-1
6.1%
1-4
5.9%
Gudja United goals ↓
Melita goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.0%
6.6%
11%
10%
7.6%
1
1.3%
6.1%
8.2%
8.0%
5.9%
2
0.7%
2.1%
3.2%
3.1%
2.3%
3
0.2%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gudja United goals (down), columns = Melita goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Gudja United is 0.21 points worse than Melita in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Gudja United is 0.54 goals worse than Melita in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Gudja United is 0.20 goals better than Melita in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gudja United or Draw
19.4%
Avg Implied -
6%
13%
81%
covers Gudja United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gudja United or Melita
86.9%
Avg Implied -
6%
13%
81%
covers Gudja United + Melita
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Melita
93.7%
Avg Implied -
6%
13%
81%
covers Draw + Melita
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gudja United over/under 0.5
Over
53.9%
Under
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5
Over
18.2%
Under
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 0.5
Over
94.8%
Under
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5
Over
79.3%
Under
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5
Over
56.5%
Under
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 3.5
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gudja United, so a minus line means Gudja United give that many goals of a start and Melita receive them. At -1, Gudja United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gudja United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gudja United)
Gudja United -2
0.4%
Draw -2
1.5%
Melita +2
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gudja United)
Gudja United -1
1.8%
Draw -1
4.4%
Melita +1
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Gudja United)
Gudja United +1
19.4%
Draw +1
18.5%
Melita -1
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Gudja United)
Gudja United +2
37.8%
Draw +2
21.2%
Melita -2
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gudja United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.31
0.69
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (27)
0.63
0.67
0.31
0.69
0.93
0.64
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Melita
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
1.17
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.65
1.22
0.56
0.36
0.71
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.9%
Under 0.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.4%
Under 1.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.2%
Under 2.5
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gudja United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.7%
Under
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gudja United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.69
0.50
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (27)
0.78
0.59
0.69
0.46
0.86
0.71
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Melita
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.03
0.50
0.75
0.78
1.22
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.96
0.33
0.78
0.43
1.07
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
1.29
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.0%
Under 0.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.5%
Under 1.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.2%
Under 2.5
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gudja United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.4%
Under
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Attard
Sirens
Mgarr United
Naxxar Lions
Zurrieq
Tarxien Rainbows
St. Andrews
Pietà Hotspurs
Swieqi United
Santa Lucía
Fgura United
Zebbug Rangers
Victoria Hotspurs
Vittoriosa Stars