Gudja United’s recent 2-game winning streak at home is eclipsed by St. Andrews’ strong away form, scoring 1.5 and conceding only 0.88 against weaker opponents. The model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, assigning an 83% probability to that outcome. Home win sits at 5%, draw 12%. The expected total is 3.7 goals, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-3 for St. Andrews, a 11.4% chance.
Gudja’s home scoring average of 1.0 goals and conceding 1.15 against stronger opposition contrasts with St. Andrews’ away scoring of 1.5 and conceding 0.88 against weaker teams. The model’s suggested picks reinforce the away dominance: Home under 3.5 goals99.5%, Away +2 handicap98.7%, Home under 2.5 goals96.9%, Under 7.596.6%, Away over 0.5 goals95.0%, Draw or Away95.0%, Away +1 handicap95.0%, Under 6.592.0%. Each selection is listed with its exact probability, and no other outcome is given a win chance.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gudja United win
5.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
11.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews win
83.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gudja United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.27
1.00
1.19
1.79
1.36
vs Stronger (27)
1.41
1.26
1.00
1.15
1.79
1.36
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.33
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (St. Andrews) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St. Andrews
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.53
1.13
2.00
1.67
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.35
1.76
1.00
2.10
1.86
1.29
vs Weaker (13)
1.46
1.23
1.40
1.80
1.50
0.88
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.7%
Under 1.5
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.1%
Under 2.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
50.2%
Under 3.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-3
11.4%
0-2
11.4%
0-4
8.6%
1-3
7.7%
1-2
7.7%
0-1
7.1%
1-4
5.8%
1-1
5.7%
Gudja United goals ↓
St. Andrews goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.0%
7.1%
11%
11%
8.6%
1
1.2%
5.7%
7.7%
7.7%
5.8%
2
0.6%
1.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.0%
3
0.1%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gudja United goals (down), columns = St. Andrews goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Gudja United is 0.23 points better than St. Andrews in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Gudja United is 0.14 goals better than St. Andrews in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Gudja United is 0.59 goals better than St. Andrews in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.73).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gudja United or Draw
16.9%
Avg Implied -
5%
12%
83%
covers Gudja United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gudja United or St. Andrews
88.1%
Avg Implied -
5%
12%
83%
covers Gudja United + St. Andrews
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or St. Andrews
95.0%
Avg Implied -
5%
12%
83%
covers Draw + St. Andrews
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gudja United over/under 0.5
Over
49.2%
Under
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 0.5
Over
95.0%
Under
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 1.5
Over
80.1%
Under
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 2.5
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 3.5
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gudja United, so a minus line means Gudja United give that many goals of a start and St. Andrews receive them. At -1, Gudja United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gudja United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gudja United)
Gudja United -2
0.2%
Draw -2
1.1%
St. Andrews +2
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gudja United)
Gudja United -1
1.3%
Draw -1
3.6%
St. Andrews +1
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Gudja United)
Gudja United +1
16.9%
Draw +1
17.9%
St. Andrews -1
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Gudja United)
Gudja United +2
34.8%
Draw +2
21.3%
St. Andrews -2
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gudja United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.31
0.69
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (27)
0.63
0.67
0.31
0.69
0.93
0.64
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (St. Andrews) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St. Andrews
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.59
0.60
0.60
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.38
0.80
0.80
0.50
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gudja United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gudja United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.69
0.50
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (27)
0.78
0.59
0.69
0.46
0.86
0.71
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (St. Andrews) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St. Andrews
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.03
0.47
1.33
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.71
1.18
0.40
1.50
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.85
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gudja United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Attard
Sirens
Mgarr United
Naxxar Lions
Zurrieq
Tarxien Rainbows
Pietà Hotspurs
Melita
Swieqi United
Santa Lucía
Fgura United
Zebbug Rangers
Victoria Hotspurs
Vittoriosa Stars