Guilsfield are the clear favorites, with a 46% chance of victory, a 25% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of a Gresford Athletic win. The model expects 3.1 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 23%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.7% probability. Guilsfield’s home form shows they average 2.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded against similar opposition, while Gresford Athletic, playing away, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded versus similar teams. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.6% probability. The final score of the match was 2-1, a home win, after Guilsfield came off a 4-0 victory over Penrhyncoch and Gresford Athletic had suffered five straight defeats, most recently losing 0-2 to Llanuwchllyn.
The win extends Guilsfield’s recent run, with a 2-1 victory over Gresford Athletic confirming the model’s prediction of a home win. The model, which had a 46% probability for a home win, was right, and the final score matched the favoured outcome. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.6% probability, hit as well. Guilsfield’s home form has been solid, while Gresford’s five-match losing streak was a stark contrast. The match delivered the expected result, with the model’s selections largely coming through.
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 1.50 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 1.25 | 1.42 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.92 | 1.15 | 2.83 | 1.17 | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.44 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 2.25 | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 32% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.48 | 0.70 | 1.70 | 1.09 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.78 | 1.39 | 0.50 | 1.62 | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.67 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 29% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
| Gresford Athletic goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 12% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 4.0% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.92 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.77 | 0.92 | 1.33 | 0.83 | 0.29 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.67 | 0.78 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 41% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 0.78 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.22 | 0.61 | 0.12 | 0.88 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 55% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.64 | 1.30 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.15 | 0.23 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 0.86 | 0.14 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.78 | 1.22 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 59% (+37pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.82 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.56 | 0.78 | 0.38 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/22 | A | 0-0 |
Guilsfield| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/23 | A | 4-0 | |
| 07/02/23 | A | 0-2 | |
| 04/02/23 | A | 0-3 | |
| 28/01/23 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/01/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/01/23 | H | 3-2 | |
| 02/01/23 | A | 6-0 | |
| 26/12/22 | A | 2-2 | |
| 06/12/22 | H | 4-0 | |
| 26/11/22 | A | 1-2 |
Gresford Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/23 | A | 0-2 | |
| 07/02/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 04/02/23 | H | 1-3 | |
| 21/01/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 07/01/23 | A | 1-3 | |
| 02/01/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 27/12/22 | H | 0-3 | |
| 11/12/22 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/11/22 | H | 0-2 | |
| 19/11/22 | A | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 83 | 90% | 2.8 | 101 | 24 | +77 | 4.2 | 100% | 77% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Holywell | 30 | 79 | 87% | 2.6 | 75 | 22 | +53 | 3.2 | 93% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 3 | Barry Town | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 78 | 25 | +53 | 3.4 | 80% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Llandudno | 30 | 66 | 67% | 2.2 | 70 | 23 | +47 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 62 | 63% | 2.1 | 63 | 34 | +29 | 3.2 | 77% | 57% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Briton Ferry | 30 | 60 | 57% | 2.0 | 72 | 33 | +39 | 3.5 | 87% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Guilsfield | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 58 | 37 | +21 | 3.2 | 80% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 52 | 53% | 1.7 | 66 | 41 | +25 | 3.6 | 80% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 51 | 53% | 1.7 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 3.0 | 83% | 63% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 64 | 53 | +11 | 3.9 | 87% | 70% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 11 | Afan Lido | 30 | 47 | 43% | 1.6 | 61 | 52 | +9 | 3.8 | 93% | 67% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 12 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 66 | 48 | +18 | 3.8 | 93% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 46 | 40 | +6 | 2.9 | 77% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 14 | Cefn Druids AFC | 30 | 43 | 43% | 1.4 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | - |
| 15 | Buckley Town | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 38 | 33% | 1.3 | 62 | 53 | +9 | 3.8 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 17 | Pontardawe Town | 30 | 37 | 40% | 1.2 | 51 | 73 | -22 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | - |
| 18 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | - |
| 19 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 2.5 | 70% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | - |
| 20 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 33 | 27% | 1.1 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 21 | Porthmadog | 30 | 33 | 33% | 1.1 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 3.0 | 87% | 63% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Taffs Well | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 3.5 | 80% | 57% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Goytre United | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 3.7 | 93% | 67% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Abergavenny Town | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 35 | 60 | -25 | 3.2 | 80% | 53% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 25 | Llanidloes Town | 30 | 27 | 23% | 0.9 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 3.5 | 93% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Trefelin | 30 | 27 | 23% | 0.9 | 47 | 70 | -23 | 3.9 | 97% | 83% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | - |
| 27 | Chirk AAA | 30 | 26 | 17% | 0.9 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 2.7 | 77% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | - |
| 28 | Swansea University | 30 | 26 | 20% | 0.9 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | - |
| 29 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 24 | 23% | 0.8 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 3.3 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | - |
| 30 | Conwy Borough | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 33 | 64 | -31 | 3.2 | 83% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.1 | - |
| 31 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 16 | 10% | 0.5 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 3.4 | 93% | 67% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 32 | Holyhead Hotspur | 30 | 15 | 7% | 0.5 | 24 | 69 | -45 | 3.1 | 90% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.3 | - |