The model favours a Guilsfield victory, with a 44% chance of a home win, 26% for a draw and 29% for an away win. The expected total of 3.0 goals suggests a lively contest, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 24% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.4% chance, reflecting the balanced scoring rates: Guilsfield averages 2.14 goals for and 1.14 against at home against similar opposition, while Gresford Athletic scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4 on the road. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals at 80.5%. Guilsfield come off a win, having beaten Penrhyncoch 4-0, whereas Gresford Athletic are in a five-match losing streak, losing 0-2 to Llanuwchllyn. All figures are presented as percentages and the only model pick listed is Over 1.5.
The upset came early as Guilsfield, riding a win in their last five, were denied a home victory by Gresford Athletic, who had just endured five consecutive defeats. The final score was 0-1, an away win that left the pre-match favourite - the model’s Home win call with a 44% probability - wrong. The model’s other selection, Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.5% chance, missed as the match produced only one goal. The prediction of a 2-goal total, at 24% probability, also failed, with the actual total falling short of the expected 3.0. The model’s call was therefore incorrect, and all suggested picks missed.
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.97 | 1.40 | 2.29 | 1.14 | 1.69 | 1.62 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.73 | 1.27 | 2.14 | 1.14 | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.43 | 1.14 | 2.00 | 1.88 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.94 | 2.29 | 1.31 | 1.23 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.58 | 2.00 | 1.86 | 2.43 | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 2.00 | 1.17 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Gresford Athletic goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 12% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.67 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 1.27 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.50 | 0.88 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.06 | 1.00 | 0.46 | 0.23 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.73 | 1.29 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.07 | 0.67 | 1.14 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 0.93 | 0.80 | 1.43 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.17 | 0.88 | 1.29 | 0.85 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.83 | 1.25 | 0.86 | 1.36 | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.00 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/02/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/11/22 | A | 0-0 |
Guilsfield| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/24 | H | 4-1 | |
| 19/03/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 16/03/24 | H | 4-0 | |
| 08/03/24 | A | 1-4 | |
| 02/03/24 | H | 2-3 | |
| 27/02/24 | A | 4-2 | |
| 24/02/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 10/02/24 | H | 0-3 | |
| 03/02/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/01/24 | H | 1-3 |
Gresford Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 23/03/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 19/03/24 | A | 2-5 | |
| 08/03/24 | H | 2-4 | |
| 02/03/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/02/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/02/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 02/02/24 | H | 1-3 | |
| 27/01/24 | A | 4-1 | |
| 20/01/24 | A | 2-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Holywell | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 79 | 17 | +62 | 3.2 | 90% | 70% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 | Flint Town United | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 94 | 30 | +64 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Airbus UK | 30 | 74 | 77% | 2.5 | 84 | 28 | +56 | 3.7 | 93% | 80% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | - |
| 4 | Briton Ferry | 30 | 71 | 77% | 2.4 | 86 | 39 | +47 | 4.2 | 97% | 87% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | - |
| 5 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 67% | 2.1 | 80 | 40 | +40 | 4.0 | 97% | 83% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 60 | 42 | +18 | 3.4 | 77% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 7 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 55 | 60% | 1.8 | 66 | 50 | +16 | 3.9 | 90% | 83% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.7 | - |
| 8 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 53 | 57% | 1.8 | 62 | 55 | +7 | 3.9 | 90% | 87% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 47% | 1.7 | 60 | 37 | +23 | 3.2 | 87% | 50% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 48 | 50% | 1.6 | 70 | 60 | +10 | 4.3 | 93% | 87% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 47 | 40% | 1.6 | 50 | 39 | +11 | 3.0 | 77% | 47% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | Afan Lido | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 13 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 68 | 68 | +0 | 4.5 | 97% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | - |
| 14 | Goytre United | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 58 | 59 | -1 | 3.9 | 87% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 58 | 52 | +6 | 3.7 | 93% | 77% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | - |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 69 | 64 | +5 | 4.4 | 97% | 83% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 17 | Caersws | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 60 | 52 | +8 | 3.7 | 93% | 83% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 18 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 46 | 41 | +5 | 2.9 | 87% | 57% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | - |
| 19 | Guilsfield | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 46 | +2 | 3.1 | 87% | 67% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 20 | Trefelin | 30 | 38 | 33% | 1.3 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 3.6 | 90% | 67% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | - |
| 21 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 3.4 | 80% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Buckley Town | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 54 | 60 | -6 | 3.8 | 90% | 83% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 23 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 35 | 30% | 1.2 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 3.3 | 73% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Taffs Well | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 3.1 | 87% | 57% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 25 | Pontardawe Town | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 4.1 | 90% | 77% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Llandudno | 30 | 31 | 33% | 1.0 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 4.6 | 97% | 93% | 73% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | - |
| 27 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 26 | 23% | 0.9 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 3.8 | 90% | 80% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | - |
| 28 | Porthmadog | 30 | 22 | 20% | 0.7 | 35 | 66 | -31 | 3.4 | 87% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 29 | Abertillery Bluebirds | 30 | 18 | 13% | 0.6 | 42 | 90 | -48 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Chirk AAA | 30 | 13 | 10% | 0.4 | 32 | 82 | -50 | 3.8 | 87% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.7 | - |
| 31 | Llanidloes Town | 30 | 9 | 7% | 0.3 | 25 | 106 | -81 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Abergavenny Town | 30 | 8 | 7% | 0.3 | 20 | 84 | -64 | 3.5 | 87% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.8 | - |