Guilsfield’s recent win over Penrhyncoch and the 4-0 scoreline suggest a sharp attacking edge, while Gresford Athletic’s five-game losing streak and 0-2 defeat to Llanuwchllyn hint at defensive frailties. The model favours a home win, with a 49% chance, a 23% chance of a draw and 28% for an away victory. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.7% probability. Guilsfield averages 1.89 goals scored and 2.11 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Gresford Athletic averages 1.15 goals scored and 2.31 conceded on the road against similar teams. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, carries an 87.9% probability and has already hit in this match. These figures underscore a match where Guilsfield’s offensive potency and Gresford’s defensive lapses combine to produce a likely 4-1 outcome, matching the final scoreline.
The match saw Guilsfield extend their recent win streak, finishing 4-1 over Gresford Athletic. The model’s favourite was a home win with a 49% probability, and it proved correct. The predicted over 1.5 goals, at 87.9%, also hit. Guilsfield’s strong home form, averaging 1.89 goals scored and 2.11 conceded, contrasted with Gresford’s away struggles, where they had scored only 1.15 and conceded 2.31. The final score matched the model’s home-win call, and the single suggested pick also succeeded, confirming the model’s overall accuracy for this fixture.
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.97 | 1.87 | 1.93 | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.60 | 2.05 | 1.89 | 2.11 | 1.36 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.60 | 1.80 | 1.83 | 1.67 | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 2.13 | 2.07 | 1.86 | 1.25 | 2.38 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.72 | 2.08 | 2.33 | 1.83 | 1.15 | 2.31 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.20 | 2.40 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Gresford Athletic goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 4.9% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 5.9% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 4.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.65 | 1.05 | 0.78 | 1.11 | 0.55 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 0.81 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.96 | 0.84 | 1.17 | 0.75 | 0.77 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.10 | 1.07 | 1.13 | 0.73 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.80 | 1.30 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.27 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 0.44 | 1.44 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.76 | 1.24 | 1.17 | 1.08 | 0.38 | 1.38 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.60 | 1.40 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 01/04/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 06/09/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/02/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/11/22 | A | 0-0 |
Guilsfield| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/02/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 08/02/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 01/02/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/01/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/01/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 11/01/25 | A | 4-0 | |
| 04/01/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/12/24 | H | 4-2 | |
| 21/12/24 | H | 6-1 |
Gresford Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 21/02/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 15/02/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 07/02/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 25/01/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 17/01/25 | H | 0-7 | |
| 01/01/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 28/12/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 06/12/24 | H | 6-2 | |
| 30/11/24 | A | 6-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 88 | 22 | +66 | 3.7 | 87% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Airbus UK | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 102 | 30 | +72 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 60% | 2.1 | 64 | 25 | +39 | 3.0 | 87% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 59 | 57% | 2.0 | 53 | 33 | +20 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 57 | 60% | 1.9 | 56 | 41 | +15 | 3.2 | 87% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Newport City | 30 | 54 | 53% | 1.8 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 2.7 | 73% | 57% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Trefelin | 30 | 53 | 50% | 1.8 | 54 | 41 | +13 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 53 | 53% | 1.8 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 3.3 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 43% | 1.7 | 50 | 38 | +12 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Llandudno | 30 | 49 | 50% | 1.6 | 65 | 60 | +5 | 4.2 | 97% | 77% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Buckley Town | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 48 | 47 | +1 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 40% | 1.5 | 55 | 44 | +11 | 3.3 | 83% | 57% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Guilsfield | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 14 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 90% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 15 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 52 | 48 | +4 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 2.6 | 73% | 43% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | - |
| 17 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 68 | 62 | +6 | 4.3 | 97% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 18 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 37 | 34 | +3 | 2.4 | 67% | 37% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 19 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 20 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 44 | 67 | -23 | 3.7 | 80% | 63% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 21 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 36 | 37% | 1.2 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 3.2 | 87% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 22 | Afan Lido | 30 | 34 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 23 | Caersws | 30 | 34 | 33% | 1.1 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 3.4 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 25 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 3.4 | 77% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 29 | 27% | 1.0 | 40 | 59 | -19 | 3.3 | 77% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 27 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 46 | 64 | -18 | 3.7 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 28 | Penrhiwceiber Rangers | 30 | 28 | 23% | 0.9 | 30 | 57 | -27 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | - |
| 29 | Goytre United | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | - |
| 30 | Taffs Well | 30 | 15 | 10% | 0.5 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 3.6 | 93% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | - |
| 31 | Llay Miners Welfare | 30 | 14 | 10% | 0.5 | 35 | 84 | -49 | 4.0 | 90% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 32 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 13 | 13% | 0.4 | 38 | 105 | -67 | 4.8 | 90% | 80% | 70% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 3.5 | - |