Guilsfield are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 67% chance to a home win, 17% to a draw and 16% to an away victory, and the pick is a home win. The team’s recent five-game run of LDDWD and a 1-3 loss to Buckley Town underline a defensive fragility that the model sees as a weakness for Gresford Athletic, who have suffered five straight defeats and a 0-3 loss to Bala Town. Guilsfield’s home form shows an average of 2.45 goals scored and 1.09 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Gresford Athletic’s away record is 1.15 scored and 2.85 conceded. The expected total is 4.1 goals, with the most likely total being 6 + at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Guilsfield, with an 8.4% probability. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 95.1%, Under 7.5 at 94.0%, Home over 0.5 goals at 93.8%, Home +2 handicap at 93.4%, Over 1.5 at 92.4%, Under 6.5 at 87.4%, Away under 2.5 goals at 84.5%, and Home or Draw at 84.3%.
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 1.43 | 2.50 | 1.19 | 0.79 | 1.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.95 | 1.21 | 2.58 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.27 | 1.82 | 2.25 | 1.75 | 0.71 | 1.86 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.92 | 2.17 | 1.22 | 2.72 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.18 | 2.64 | 1.38 | 2.38 | 1.07 | 2.79 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 2.38 | 2.12 | 3.00 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Gresford Athletic goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 6.7% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 4.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.83 | 1.25 | 0.81 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.95 | 0.68 | 1.17 | 0.75 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.73 | 1.09 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.64 | 0.82 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.93 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.60 | 1.25 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.00 | 0.53 | 1.42 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.55 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.43 | 0.71 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 1.77 | 1.17 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.55 | 1.82 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 0.43 | 1.86 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.38 | 1.62 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 99.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 98.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 96.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 95.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 94.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 94.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 92.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 92.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 92.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 91.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 87.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 87.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 86.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 83.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 81.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 81.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 78.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 | 77.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 77.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 2H goals | 75.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 72.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home win | 71.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 26/07/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 08/03/25 | H | 4-1 | |
| 13/09/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 01/04/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 06/09/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/02/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/11/22 | A | 0-0 |
Guilsfield| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 22/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 |
Gresford Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 16/08/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 4-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |