Guilsfield hosts Mold Alexandra on August 8 in the Wales: FAW Championship. The visitors come in unbeaten in their last 5 matches, but Guilsfield is the favourite to win, with a 55% probability of taking all three points, according to the model. The away win percentage is 22%, while the draw percentage is 23%. The expected total number of goals is 3.4.
Guilsfield has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.29 goals and conceding 1.29 goals against opponents of similar strength. Mold Alexandra, on the other hand, has averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1 goal conceded in away matches against similar opponents. The model's selection is the home win, but it also suggests an Over 1.5 goal total, which has a 86.1% probability and an 9% edge. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.1% probability.
The win extends Guilsfield's recent form, coming off a win over Mold Alexandra. The final score of 3-2 confirmed the actual result of a home win. The model correctly picked Guilsfield to win, with a pre-match probability of 55%.
The model's selection of a home win was correct. The model also suggested an Over 1.5 result, which hit with a pre-match probability of 86.1%. The model's selection of a draw was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 23%. The model's selection of an away win was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 22%.
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.53 | 2.29 | 1.36 | 0.94 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.78 | 1.06 | 2.44 | 0.89 | 1.11 | 1.22 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.25 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 2.20 | 0.71 | 2.29 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.57 | 1.31 | 1.38 | 1.14 | 1.79 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.39 | 1.33 | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.12 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.00 | 1.92 | 0.83 | 1.67 | 1.17 | 2.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Mold Alexandra goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 6.2% | 10% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.4% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.80 | 1.36 | 0.86 | 0.44 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.00 | 0.61 | 1.33 | 0.78 | 0.67 | 0.44 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.67 | 1.08 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.38 | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.72 | 0.61 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.62 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.42 | 0.50 | 0.17 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.93 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.78 | 0.44 | 1.11 | 0.11 | 0.44 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.58 | 1.17 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.57 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.67 | 0.72 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.58 | 1.42 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86.1% | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1.15 | 1.13 | - | - | +9.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 25/08/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 30/11/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 28/09/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 10/02/24 | H | 0-3 | |
| 23/09/23 | A | 3-0 | |
| 15/04/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 30/07/22 | H | 4-0 |
Guilsfield| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 24/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 4-4 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
Mold Alexandra| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 8-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |