Guilsfield are the clear favourite, with the model rating a 64 % chance of a home win, a 20 % draw and a 16 % away win. The prediction favours a 2-1 scoreline, the most likely outcome at 9.4 %. The expected total goals is 3.6, with a 21 % chance of exactly three goals. Guilsfield’s home form shows they average 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded against weaker opposition, while Penrhyncoch, playing away against a stronger side, average 1.0 scored and 0.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9 %), Under 7.5 (96.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.5 %), Home +2 handicap (93.6 %), Under 6.5 (92.3 %) and Home over 0.5 goals (91.3 %). Guilsfield’s recent unbeaten run (DDWDW) and a 2-2 draw with Ruthin Town contrast with Penrhyncoch’s three straight defeats and a 0-2 loss to Brickfield Rangers, underscoring the home side’s advantage.
The win extends Guilsfield’s recent run, coming off a 4-0 triumph over Penrhyncoch. The model’s favourite, a Home win, was right, as the final score was 4-0 in favour of the hosts. The pre-match probability for a home victory was 64%. The model’s selections largely proved accurate. Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.8%, Under 7.5 at 96.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.3%, Home +2 handicap at 93.5%, Under 6.5 at 92.4% and Home over 0.5 goals at 91.3%. Each probability is expressed as a percentage, and every pick’s outcome is noted.
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.27 | 0.93 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.89 | 1.32 | 2.45 | 1.09 | 1.12 | 1.62 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.27 | 1.82 | 2.25 | 1.75 | 0.71 | 1.86 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 1.36 | 0.94 | 2.38 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.44 | 1.96 | 1.92 | 1.58 | 1.00 | 2.31 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.50 | 1.75 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 3.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Penrhyncoch goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 7.9% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 3.9% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.87 | 1.27 | 0.87 | 0.53 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.00 | 0.74 | 1.18 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.73 | 1.09 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.97 | 0.79 | 0.86 | 0.38 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.46 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.63 | 1.13 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.89 | 0.58 | 1.27 | 0.27 | 0.38 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.55 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.43 | 0.71 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.93 | 1.21 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.84 | 0.96 | 1.17 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 1.31 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 99.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 97.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 7.5 | 96.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 96.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 95.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 93.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 92.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 91.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 90.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 88.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 88.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 | 83.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 83.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +1 handicap | 83.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 83.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 83.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 82.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 80.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 80.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 76.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 74.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 73.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 70.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 1.5 goals | 70.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 12/09/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 28/12/24 | H | 4-2 | |
| 14/12/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/01/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 19/11/22 | H | 4-1 |
Guilsfield| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 22/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 3-0 |
Penrhyncoch| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |