Gyirmot SE’s recent slump - two straight defeats before a 2-4 loss to Mezokovesd-zsory - has left the home side looking fragile, yet the model still favours a home win. The odds are finely balanced: a 39% chance for Gyirmot, 28% for a draw, and 33% for Csakvar. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, with a 13.4% probability, but the model’s pick remains a home win. The average goal total sits at 2.7, with the most probable total being two goals, a 26% chance. Gyirmot’s home form shows they average four goals scored and none conceded against weaker opposition, while Csakvar, playing away against stronger teams, averages 2.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. The suggested selections include Over 1.5 with a 76.8% probability and Under 3.5 with a 70.9% probability. The final score of 2-1 confirms the model’s prediction of a home victory.
Results analysis
The Gyirmot SE win extends their recent form, breaking a string of two defeats. The model had picked a home win with a 39% probability, and that call proved correct as Gyirmot edged Csakvar 2-1. The final score matched the most likely 2-goal outcome, and the 1-1 draw and 2-1 win were both in the model’s top probabilities. The model’s selections also hit: Over 1.5 goals, with a 76.8% chance, and Under 3.5 goals, at 70.9%, both came through. The match delivered on the predicted result and the key market picks, confirming the model’s accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gyirmot SE win✓ Hit
38.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Csakvar win✗ Miss
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gyirmot SE
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.62
1.19
1.69
1.31
1.54
1.08
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
1.57
1.43
1.50
1.42
1.67
1.44
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.25
4.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
31% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Csakvar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Csakvar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.15
1.19
0.92
1.15
1.38
1.23
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.14
0.50
1.50
2.67
0.67
vs Similar (19)
1.05
1.21
1.11
1.00
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
19% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gyirmot SE) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1 ✓
8.6%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
7.9%
0-0
7.8%
0-1
7.3%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
5.6%
Gyirmot SE goals ↓
Csakvar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
7.3%
5.6%
2.4%
0.8%
1
8.1%
13%
7.9%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.6%
8.6%
5.6%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.1%
4.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gyirmot SE goals (down), columns = Csakvar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Diosgyori VTK
2.29
BVSC
2.00
MTK Budapest
1.95
Ajka
1.79
Szeged 2011
1.68
Soroksar
1.61
Gyirmot SE
1.58
Pécsi MFC
1.53
Iváncsa
1.50
Siofok
1.47
Szombathelyi Haladas
1.34
Budafoki LC
1.32
Gyori ETO FC
1.21
MTE 1904
1.21
Tiszakecske FC
1.21
Kazincbarcikai
1.18
Csakvar
1.11
Nyiregyhaza
1.05
Kozarmisleny FC
1.02
Szentlőrinc SE
1.00
Bekescsaba 1912
0.97
Dorogi FC
0.82
Veszprém
0.50
Gyirmot SE is 0.47 points better than Csakvar in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
MTK Budapest
2.26
Diosgyori VTK
2.08
Gyirmot SE
1.55
Soroksar
1.50
Szombathelyi Haladas
1.42
Ajka
1.42
Szeged 2011
1.32
Bekescsaba 1912
1.24
Siofok
1.18
Nyiregyhaza
1.18
Csakvar
1.16
Kozarmisleny FC
1.15
Szentlőrinc SE
1.12
Budafoki LC
1.11
Kazincbarcikai
1.08
Tiszakecske FC
1.00
BVSC
1.00
Pécsi MFC
1.00
Gyori ETO FC
0.97
MTE 1904
0.95
Dorogi FC
0.84
Iváncsa
0.50
Veszprém
0.00
Gyirmot SE is 0.39 goals better than Csakvar in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.16).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Veszprém
0.50
BVSC
0.50
Pécsi MFC
0.82
Diosgyori VTK
0.95
Ajka
0.97
Szeged 2011
1.00
Gyori ETO FC
1.11
Budafoki LC
1.13
MTE 1904
1.16
Gyirmot SE
1.21
Soroksar
1.26
MTK Budapest
1.26
Csakvar
1.32
Tiszakecske FC
1.32
Siofok
1.34
Nyiregyhaza
1.38
Kazincbarcikai
1.47
Szombathelyi Haladas
1.47
Bekescsaba 1912
1.47
Iváncsa
1.50
Szentlőrinc SE
1.50
Dorogi FC
1.61
Kozarmisleny FC
1.68
Gyirmot SE is 0.11 goals better than Csakvar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gyirmot SE
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.04
0.58
1.31
0.54
0.77
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.67
1.17
0.58
0.89
0.78
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
3.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
58% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Csakvar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Csakvar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.46
0.69
0.23
0.69
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.71
0.25
1.00
2.00
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.26
0.68
0.22
0.56
0.30
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Gyirmot SE) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gyirmot SE over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Csakvar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Csakvar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Csakvar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gyirmot SE
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.58
0.62
0.38
0.77
0.77
0.46
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.76
0.33
0.83
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
54% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Csakvar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Csakvar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
0.50
0.69
0.46
0.69
0.54
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.43
0.25
0.50
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.53
0.89
0.44
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
58% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Gyirmot SE) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gyirmot SE over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Csakvar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Csakvar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Csakvar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Hungary: NB II 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB II stats & trends →